比特币接近其历史最高水平，达到$ 104,900

在唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）宣布美国 - 中国贸易谈判取得的重大进展之后，比特币在周末飙升至104,900美元，占其历史最高高点的4％之内。

Bitcoin price surged to $104,900 over the weekend, coming within 4% of its all-time high, after Donald Trump announced major progress in U.S.-China trade talks.

在唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）宣布美国 - 中国贸易谈判取得的重大进展之后，周末比特币价格飙升至104,900美元，占其历史最高最高水平的4％之内。

His upbeat post about a “total reset” with China sparked optimism across markets, boosting investor confidence in BTC.

他关于与中国的“全部重置”的乐观帖子激发了整个市场的乐观情绪，从而增强了投资者对BTC的信心。

What Happened: While some analysts signaled a bear market for Bitcoin after its recent V-shaped recovery from $82,000 in late March to over $104,000 today, PlanB sees it differently.

发生了什么：虽然一些分析师在最近的V形回收率从3月下旬的82,000美元到今天的104,000美元以上，这表明了比特币的熊市市场，但Planb认为这是不同的。

The crypto analyst believes the recent price action is part of a longer, flatter bull cycle that is just getting started.

这位加密分析师认为，最近的价格动作是刚刚开始的更长，更平坦的公牛循环的一部分。

In his latest video analysis, PlanB refers to his on-chain market cycle model, which showed no signs of a typical "cycle bottom / end-of-cycle distribution phase" back in March. Instead, the data pointed to continued bullish momentum.

Planb在他的最新视频分析中指的是他的链上市场周期模型，该模型没有显示出3月份的典型“周期底部 /循环分配阶段”的迹象。相反，数据指出了继续看涨的势头。

"It’s still in accumulation, which means the bull market is not over yet. We’ll likely see Bitcoin move above its previous all-time high of $110,000 in the coming weeks or months, with several new highs to follow."

“它仍在积累中，这意味着牛市还没有结束。我们可能会看到比特币在未来几周或几个月中超过其以前的110,000美元的高度，并随之而来的是几个新高点。”

Also, his stock-to-flow (S2F) model predicts that as Bitcoin becomes more scarce, its price rises. Historically, after each halving, a red dot appears on the chart, often signaling the start of a strong bull.

此外，他的股票流量（S2F）模型预测，随着比特币变得越来越稀缺，其价格上涨。从历史上看，每次减半后，图表上都会出现一个红点，通常标志着强牛的开始。

Bitcoin Price Analysis:

比特币价格分析：

Bitcoin’s RSI is currently at 66, and PlanB predicts it will "easily go above 80 for several months, just like we saw in past bull markets."

比特币的RSI目前为66岁，Planb预测，它“将在几个月内轻松超过80，就像我们在过去的牛市中看到的那样。”

"I'm not saying it will stay above 80 for 12 months, but we might see it fluctuate between 70 and 80 over a period of eight to ten months."

“我并不是说它将停留在80个月以上，但我们可能会在八到十个月的时间内看到它在70至80之间波动。”

This aligns with the stock-to-flow model, which suggests Bitcoin could reach $500,000 per coin by the end of the current halving cycle.

这与股票对流量模型保持一致，这表明比特币在当前减半周期结束时每枚硬币可能达到500,000美元。

The 200-week moving average has moved up slightly from $46K to $47K, signaling increased market confidence and possibly the start of the "FOMO phase."

200周的移动平均线从4.6万美元上升到47,000美元，这表明市场信心增加，可能是“ FOMO阶段”的开始。

Additionally, realized prices are trending upwards, with short-term realized prices at $92K and the two-year at $77K, indicating most Bitcoin holders are in profit, further supporting a strong market.

此外，实现的价格正在上升，短期实现的价格为92,000美元，为期两年的价格为7.7万美元，这表明大多数比特币持有人都在获利，进一步支持强劲的市场。

BTC Price Prediction:

BTC价格预测：

Moreover, analysts’ predictions suggest that with just a few high-momentum months, Bitcoin could reach $400K, placing it within striking distance of the stock-to-flow average.

此外，分析师的预测表明，只有几个月的几个月，比特币可以达到40万美元，将其放在股票到流量平均水平的距离之内。

PlanB concludes, "These models can be wrong, but they are often useful, and all the indicators are now pointing towards a potentially historic 2025 for Bitcoin."

Planb得出结论：“这些模型可能是错误的，但是它们通常很有用，所有指标现在都指向比特币的历史2025年。”