Coinbase Research說，隨著公司對數字資產的增長，比特幣的市場潛力仍然具有建設性。

更樂觀的宏觀經濟背景，對數字資產的企業需求增長，並提高監管清晰度將為加密的建設性前景

The crypto market is expected to see a constructive outlook in the second half of 2025, fueled by a more upbeat macroeconomic backdrop, growing corporate appetite for digital assets, and increased regulatory clarity, according to a report by Coinbase Research.

根據Coinbase Research的一份報告，加密貨幣市場有望在2025年下半年看到建設性的前景，這是由於更樂觀的宏觀經濟背景，對數字資產的興趣增長，並提高了監管性清晰度。

The report, titled "Coinbase Research: Macro and Micro Point to a Bright Second Half for Crypto," notes that after a bumpy first quarter, marked by a brief contraction in U.S. GDP and trade disruptions, data now point to stronger growth.

該報告的標題為“ Coinbase Research：Crypto的宏觀和微觀點”，指出了Crypto的明亮下半場，在顛簸的第一季度之後，以美國GDP的短暫收縮和貿易中斷標誌著，數據現在表明增長更強。

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker has jumped to 3.8% QoQ as of early June, a sharp upgrade from earlier in the year. This shift, alongside expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and a less aggressive trade policy, has eased recession fears and strengthened investor sentiment.

截至6月初，亞特蘭大美聯儲的GDPNOW追踪器已躍升至3.8％的QOQ，這是與今年初的急劇升級。這一轉變以及對美聯儲降低稅率的期望和不太積極的貿易政策，緩解了衰退的擔憂並加強了投資者的情緒。

Declining dollar dominance and inflation protection use-cases may also boost bitcoin's

美元優勢下降和通貨膨脹保護用例也可能會增加比特幣的

Meanwhile, public companies are increasingly adding crypto to their balance sheets, aided by a 2024 rule change allowing "mark-to-market" accounting for digital assets.

同時，在2024年的規則更改的幫助下，上市公司越來越多地將加密貨幣添加到其資產負債表中，從而可以對數字資產進行“標記到市場”的核算。

While this trend is expanding demand, it’s also introducing new systemic risks. Firms that fund crypto buys with convertible debt may be forced to sell if refinancing options dry up or prices fall sharply.

儘管這種趨勢正在擴大需求，但它也引入了新的系統性風險。資助加密貨幣的公司以可轉換債務購買，如果再融資期權升高或價格急劇下降，可能會被迫出售。

"Firms may also face pressure to realize gains if stock prices become "too high" relative to peers, potentially impacting management compensation and equity-based financing options," the report said.

報告說：“如果相對於同行，股價變得“太高”，可能會影響管理補償和基於股票的融資方案，則可能會面臨意識到的壓力。”

Furthermore, if a large number of firms choose to invest in the same coins, it could lead to a potential "crowding-in" effect, where limited liquidity in certain coins drives up prices excessively.

此外，如果大量公司選擇投資於同一硬幣，則可能會導致潛在的“擁擠”效應，在某些硬幣中有限的流動性會過多地推高價格。

Regulatory clarity

監管清晰度

Regulatory developments are also expected to reshape the market, the report said.

報告說，監管發展也有望重塑市場。

The Senate recently passed the GENIUS Act, a bipartisan stablecoin bill now heading to the House. A broader market structure bill, the CLARITY Act, aims to define the roles of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in overseeing digital assets. If passed, it could clarify rules for both issuers and investors.

參議院最近通過了《天才法案》，這是一項兩黨的stablecoin法案，現在前往眾議院。 《 Clarity Act》一項更廣泛的市場結構法案旨在定義證券交易委員會（SEC）和商品期貨交易委員會（CFTC）在監督數字資產中的角色。如果通過，它可以闡明發行人和投資者的規則。

Separately, the SEC is considering more than 80 crypto ETF applications, including multi-asset funds and proposals involving staking and altcoins. Some rulings could be made as early as July, and the rest are likely to be finalized by October.

另外，SEC正在考慮80多種加密ETF應用程序，包括涉及樁和山寨幣的多資產基金和建議。一些裁決最早可以在7月份做出，其餘的可能會在十月之前完成。

Overall, bitcoin appears poised to benefit from both macro and structural tailwinds in the second half of the year, while the outlook for altcoins will depend on navigating a more complex and still-evolving regulatory and liquidity environment, according to the report.

總體而言，比特幣似乎準備在下半年中受益於宏觀和結構性逆風，而替代幣的前景將取決於瀏覽更複雜且仍在不斷發展的監管和流動性環境。

"While a broad crypto ETF approval could broaden participation in the ecosystem and be a positive development for the industry, the implications for price are less clear-cut and will depend on the specific products approved and the overall market conditions at the time," the researchers said.

研究人員說：“儘管廣泛的加密ETF批准可以擴大對生態系統的參與並成為該行業的積極發展，但對價格的影響不太明確，將取決於當時批准的特定產品和整體市場狀況。”