Coinbase Research说，随着公司对数字资产的增长，比特币的市场潜力仍然具有建设性。

更乐观的宏观经济背景，对数字资产的企业需求增长，并提高监管清晰度将为加密的建设性前景

The crypto market is expected to see a constructive outlook in the second half of 2025, fueled by a more upbeat macroeconomic backdrop, growing corporate appetite for digital assets, and increased regulatory clarity, according to a report by Coinbase Research.

根据Coinbase Research的一份报告，加密货币市场有望在2025年下半年看到建设性的前景，这是由于更乐观的宏观经济背景，对数字资产的兴趣增长，并提高了监管性清晰度。

The report, titled "Coinbase Research: Macro and Micro Point to a Bright Second Half for Crypto," notes that after a bumpy first quarter, marked by a brief contraction in U.S. GDP and trade disruptions, data now point to stronger growth.

该报告的标题为“ Coinbase Research：Crypto的宏观和微观点”，指出了Crypto的明亮下半场，在颠簸的第一季度之后，以美国GDP的短暂收缩和贸易中断标志着，数据现在表明增长更强。

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker has jumped to 3.8% QoQ as of early June, a sharp upgrade from earlier in the year. This shift, alongside expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and a less aggressive trade policy, has eased recession fears and strengthened investor sentiment.

截至6月初，亚特兰大美联储的GDPNOW追踪器已跃升至3.8％的QOQ，这是与今年初的急剧升级。这一转变以及对美联储降低税率的期望和不太积极的贸易政策，缓解了衰退的担忧并加强了投资者的情绪。

Declining dollar dominance and inflation protection use-cases may also boost bitcoin's

美元优势下降和通货膨胀保护用例也可能会增加比特币的

Meanwhile, public companies are increasingly adding crypto to their balance sheets, aided by a 2024 rule change allowing "mark-to-market" accounting for digital assets.

同时，在2024年的规则更改的帮助下，上市公司越来越多地将加密货币添加到其资产负债表中，从而可以对数字资产进行“标记到市场”的核算。

While this trend is expanding demand, it’s also introducing new systemic risks. Firms that fund crypto buys with convertible debt may be forced to sell if refinancing options dry up or prices fall sharply.

尽管这种趋势正在扩大需求，但它也引入了新的系统性风险。资助加密货币的公司以可转换债务购买，如果再融资期权升高或价格急剧下降，可能会被迫出售。

"Firms may also face pressure to realize gains if stock prices become "too high" relative to peers, potentially impacting management compensation and equity-based financing options," the report said.

报告说：“如果相对于同行，股价变得“太高”，可能会影响管理补偿和基于股票的融资方案，则可能会面临意识到的压力。”

Furthermore, if a large number of firms choose to invest in the same coins, it could lead to a potential "crowding-in" effect, where limited liquidity in certain coins drives up prices excessively.

此外，如果大量公司选择投资于同一硬币，则可能会导致潜在的“拥挤”效应，在某些硬币中有限的流动性会过多地推高价格。

Regulatory clarity

监管清晰度

Regulatory developments are also expected to reshape the market, the report said.

报告说，监管发展也有望重塑市场。

The Senate recently passed the GENIUS Act, a bipartisan stablecoin bill now heading to the House. A broader market structure bill, the CLARITY Act, aims to define the roles of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in overseeing digital assets. If passed, it could clarify rules for both issuers and investors.

参议院最近通过了《天才法案》，这是一项两党的stablecoin法案，现在前往众议院。 《 Clarity Act》一项更广泛的市场结构法案旨在定义证券交易委员会（SEC）和商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）在监督数字资产中的角色。如果通过，它可以阐明发行人和投资者的规则。

Separately, the SEC is considering more than 80 crypto ETF applications, including multi-asset funds and proposals involving staking and altcoins. Some rulings could be made as early as July, and the rest are likely to be finalized by October.

另外，SEC正在考虑80多种加密ETF应用程序，包括涉及桩和山寨币的多资产基金和建议。一些裁决最早可以在7月份做出，其余的可能会在十月之前完成。

Overall, bitcoin appears poised to benefit from both macro and structural tailwinds in the second half of the year, while the outlook for altcoins will depend on navigating a more complex and still-evolving regulatory and liquidity environment, according to the report.

总体而言，比特币似乎准备在下半年中受益于宏观和结构性逆风，而替代币的前景将取决于浏览更复杂且仍在不断发展的监管和流动性环境。

"While a broad crypto ETF approval could broaden participation in the ecosystem and be a positive development for the industry, the implications for price are less clear-cut and will depend on the specific products approved and the overall market conditions at the time," the researchers said.

研究人员说：“尽管广泛的加密ETF批准可以扩大对生态系统的参与并成为该行业的积极发展，但对价格的影响不太明确，将取决于当时批准的特定产品和整体市场状况。”