在過去一周

過去一周，比特幣仍在上升的道路上，即使有一些警告跡像開始在地面下閃爍。

Bitcoin (BTC) has continued its upward journey this past week, even as a few warning signs began flashing on the horizon. With institutional demand remaining strong and retail activity cooling down, the market seems to be entering a phase of distribution.

比特幣（BTC）在過去一周繼續其向上的旅程，即使有一些警告跡像開始閃爍。隨著機構需求保持強勁和零售活動的降溫，市場似乎正在進入分銷階段。

Market analyst Axel Adler Jr, known for his analysis of on-chain data and market signals, has decoded the latest observations and what they might hold for BTC’s next move.

市場分析師阿克塞爾·阿德勒（Axel Adler Jr）以他​​對鏈上數據和市場信號的分析而聞名，他已經解碼了最新的觀察結果，以及它們對BTC的下一步行動的影響。

Active Wallets See a Drop

活躍的錢包看到一滴

One of the more striking stats from the last seven days was a decline in Bitcoin's active wallet count. The number of new and old addresses used fell by 6.56%, decreasing from 8.62 million to about 8.06 million.

過去七天起，最引人注目的統計數據之一是比特幣的活躍錢包數量下降。使用的新舊地址的數量下降了6.56％，從862萬美元下降到約806萬。

This level of reduction usually speaks to retail traders locking in gains or stepping back from short-term trades. It's a classic sign of the market consolidating, setting the stage for the bigger players to take the lead.

這種降低水平通常與零售交易者鎖定收益或從短期交易中退步有關。這是市場合併的經典跡象，為更大的球員帶來了領先的舞台。

Bitcoin's Hashrate Slips Slightly, Network Stays Secure

比特幣的哈希拉特略微滑動，網絡保持安全

Bitcoin's network hashrate saw a minor decrease of around 1.4% this week. It moved from about 864.8 EH/s to 852.7 EH/s.

本週，比特幣網絡哈希拉特的網絡橋樑略有下降幅度約為1.4％。它從約864.8 EH/s移至852.7 EH/s。

This level of change is typically seen during periods of seasonal maintenance or as miners adjust their activity. The network's security remains strong despite the small fluctuation.

通常在季節性維護期間或礦工調整其活動時，通常可以看到這種變化水平。儘管波動很小，但網絡的安全仍然很強。

Market Cap Climbs as Bitcoin Hits New Local High

當比特幣擊中新的本地高級時，市值攀登

Bitcoin's price edged up 3.48% over the seven days, closing in on $107,839.92. That pushed the total crypto market capitalization higher by 4.5%, surpassing $2.14 trillion.

比特幣的價格在7天內上漲了3.48％，收盤價為107,839.92美元。這使加密貨幣市值提高了4.5％，超過了2.14萬億美元。

The sustained price growth has seen BTC testing and setting new local highs. This move is being driven largely by consistent institutional inflows, even as retail interest cools.

持續的價格增長已經進行了BTC測試並設定了新的本地高點。即使零售利息冷卻，這一舉動主要是由機構流入的一致驅動。

No Major Peak Yet, But Momentum Is Slowing

還沒有重大峰值，但是動力正在放慢

Other important market cycle metrics, like the Bitcoin Peak Signal — which has historically called the 2013, 2017, and 2021 cycle highs—suggest the market hasn't yet reached its final bull market phase.

其他重要的市場週期指標，例如比特幣峰信號（歷史上稱為2013、2017和2021週期高點），市場尚未達到其最終的牛市市場階段。

Common wisdom dictates that the bulk of the bull market gains tend to occur in the last 12 months before the next halving.

共同的智慧表明，大部分牛市收益往往發生在下一個減半的最後12個月。

Those indicators, like the MRPI (price-to-realized price ratio for long-term holders) and VDD Ratio (measuring the movement of older coins), are increasing but still below their historical peak levels. This implies that while some caution is warranted, the current cycle still has room to run.

這些指標，例如MRPI（長期持有人的價格比價值比）和VDD比率（衡量舊硬幣的移動），但仍在增加，但仍低於其歷史峰值水平。這意味著儘管有一些謹慎的態度，但當前週期仍然有空間的運行空間。

Looking Ahead: Fall 2025 Remains the Big Cycle Target

展望未來：2025年秋季仍然是最大的周期目標

According to Bitcoin's halving cycle fractal model, the final signals for this cycle's peak aren't expected until fall 2025. Based on this long-term model, the next major correction might arrive later this year. But for now, the structure of the bull market appears to be holding strong.

根據比特幣的減半週期分形模型，直到2025年秋季，該週期峰值的最終信號才被期望。基於此長期模型，下一個重大校正可能會在今年晚些時候到達。但是就目前而言，牛市的結構似乎保持了強大。

The key level to watch will be $107K. Staying above it would affirm the bull trend's strength. A move below could open the door to a deeper correction.

觀看的關鍵水平為10.7萬美元。保持上面的態度將肯定牛趨勢的實力。下面的移動可以打開更深層校正的門。