在过去一周

过去一周，比特币仍在上升的道路上，即使有一些警告迹象开始在地面下闪烁。

Bitcoin (BTC) has continued its upward journey this past week, even as a few warning signs began flashing on the horizon. With institutional demand remaining strong and retail activity cooling down, the market seems to be entering a phase of distribution.

比特币（BTC）在过去一周继续其向上的旅程，即使有一些警告迹象开始闪烁。随着机构需求保持强劲和零售活动的降温，市场似乎正在进入分销阶段。

Market analyst Axel Adler Jr, known for his analysis of on-chain data and market signals, has decoded the latest observations and what they might hold for BTC’s next move.

市场分析师阿克塞尔·阿德勒（Axel Adler Jr）以他​​对链上数据和市场信号的分析而闻名，他已经解码了最新的观察结果，以及它们对BTC的下一步行动的影响。

Active Wallets See a Drop

活跃的钱包看到一滴

One of the more striking stats from the last seven days was a decline in Bitcoin's active wallet count. The number of new and old addresses used fell by 6.56%, decreasing from 8.62 million to about 8.06 million.

过去七天起，最引人注目的统计数据之一是比特币的活跃钱包数量下降。使用的新旧地址的数量下降了6.56％，从862万美元下降到约806万。

This level of reduction usually speaks to retail traders locking in gains or stepping back from short-term trades. It's a classic sign of the market consolidating, setting the stage for the bigger players to take the lead.

这种降低水平通常与零售交易者锁定收益或从短期交易中退步有关。这是市场合并的经典迹象，为更大的球员带来了领先的舞台。

Bitcoin's Hashrate Slips Slightly, Network Stays Secure

比特币的哈希拉特略微滑动，网络保持安全

Bitcoin's network hashrate saw a minor decrease of around 1.4% this week. It moved from about 864.8 EH/s to 852.7 EH/s.

本周，比特币网络哈希拉特的网络桥梁略有下降幅度约为1.4％。它从约864.8 EH/s移至852.7 EH/s。

This level of change is typically seen during periods of seasonal maintenance or as miners adjust their activity. The network's security remains strong despite the small fluctuation.

通常在季节性维护期间或矿工调整其活动时，通常可以看到这种变化水平。尽管波动很小，但网络的安全仍然很强。

Market Cap Climbs as Bitcoin Hits New Local High

当比特币击中新的本地高级时，市值攀登

Bitcoin's price edged up 3.48% over the seven days, closing in on $107,839.92. That pushed the total crypto market capitalization higher by 4.5%, surpassing $2.14 trillion.

比特币的价格在7天内上涨了3.48％，收盘价为107,839.92美元。这使加密货币市值提高了4.5％，超过了2.14万亿美元。

The sustained price growth has seen BTC testing and setting new local highs. This move is being driven largely by consistent institutional inflows, even as retail interest cools.

持续的价格增长已经进行了BTC测试并设定了新的本地高点。即使零售利息冷却，这一举动主要是由机构流入的一致驱动。

No Major Peak Yet, But Momentum Is Slowing

还没有重大峰值，但是动力正在放慢

Other important market cycle metrics, like the Bitcoin Peak Signal — which has historically called the 2013, 2017, and 2021 cycle highs—suggest the market hasn't yet reached its final bull market phase.

其他重要的市场周期指标，例如比特币峰信号（历史上称为2013、2017和2021周期高点），市场尚未达到其最终的牛市市场阶段。

Common wisdom dictates that the bulk of the bull market gains tend to occur in the last 12 months before the next halving.

共同的智慧表明，大部分牛市收益往往发生在下一个减半的最后12个月。

Those indicators, like the MRPI (price-to-realized price ratio for long-term holders) and VDD Ratio (measuring the movement of older coins), are increasing but still below their historical peak levels. This implies that while some caution is warranted, the current cycle still has room to run.

这些指标，例如MRPI（长期持有人的价格比价值比）和VDD比率（衡量旧硬币的移动），但仍在增加，但仍低于其历史峰值水平。这意味着尽管有一些谨慎的态度，但当前周期仍然有空间的运行空间。

Looking Ahead: Fall 2025 Remains the Big Cycle Target

展望未来：2025年秋季仍然是最大的周期目标

According to Bitcoin's halving cycle fractal model, the final signals for this cycle's peak aren't expected until fall 2025. Based on this long-term model, the next major correction might arrive later this year. But for now, the structure of the bull market appears to be holding strong.

根据比特币的减半周期分形模型，直到2025年秋季，该周期峰值的最终信号才被期望。基于此长期模型，下一个重大校正可能会在今年晚些时候到达。但是就目前而言，牛市的结构似乎保持了强大。

The key level to watch will be $107K. Staying above it would affirm the bull trend's strength. A move below could open the door to a deeper correction.

观看的关键水平为10.7万美元。保持上面的态度将肯定牛趋势的实力。下面的移动可以打开更深层校正的门。