Bitcoin Maintained Its Upward Path This Past Week, Even as a Few Warning Signs Started Flashing

Bitcoin stayed on its upward path this past week, even as a few warning signs started flashing under the surface.

Bitcoin (BTC) has continued its upward journey this past week, even as a few warning signs began flashing on the horizon. With institutional demand remaining strong and retail activity cooling down, the market seems to be entering a phase of distribution.

Market analyst Axel Adler Jr, known for his analysis of on-chain data and market signals, has decoded the latest observations and what they might hold for BTC’s next move.

Active Wallets See a Drop

One of the more striking stats from the last seven days was a decline in Bitcoin's active wallet count. The number of new and old addresses used fell by 6.56%, decreasing from 8.62 million to about 8.06 million.

This level of reduction usually speaks to retail traders locking in gains or stepping back from short-term trades. It's a classic sign of the market consolidating, setting the stage for the bigger players to take the lead.

Bitcoin's Hashrate Slips Slightly, Network Stays Secure

Bitcoin's network hashrate saw a minor decrease of around 1.4% this week. It moved from about 864.8 EH/s to 852.7 EH/s.

This level of change is typically seen during periods of seasonal maintenance or as miners adjust their activity. The network's security remains strong despite the small fluctuation.

Market Cap Climbs as Bitcoin Hits New Local High

Bitcoin's price edged up 3.48% over the seven days, closing in on $107,839.92. That pushed the total crypto market capitalization higher by 4.5%, surpassing $2.14 trillion.

The sustained price growth has seen BTC testing and setting new local highs. This move is being driven largely by consistent institutional inflows, even as retail interest cools.

No Major Peak Yet, But Momentum Is Slowing

Other important market cycle metrics, like the Bitcoin Peak Signal — which has historically called the 2013, 2017, and 2021 cycle highs—suggest the market hasn't yet reached its final bull market phase.

Common wisdom dictates that the bulk of the bull market gains tend to occur in the last 12 months before the next halving.

Those indicators, like the MRPI (price-to-realized price ratio for long-term holders) and VDD Ratio (measuring the movement of older coins), are increasing but still below their historical peak levels. This implies that while some caution is warranted, the current cycle still has room to run.

Looking Ahead: Fall 2025 Remains the Big Cycle Target

According to Bitcoin's halving cycle fractal model, the final signals for this cycle's peak aren't expected until fall 2025. Based on this long-term model, the next major correction might arrive later this year. But for now, the structure of the bull market appears to be holding strong.

The key level to watch will be $107K. Staying above it would affirm the bull trend's strength. A move below could open the door to a deeper correction.