比特幣徘徊在$ 97,000美元附近，但衍生品數據顯示，交易者仍然謹慎

比特幣（BTC）價格上漲至5月3日的$ 97,838，標誌著其10週內的最高水平

Bitcoin (BTC) price rose to $97,838 on May 3, reaching its highest level in the past 10 weeks as strong institutional demand pushed up U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs by over $3.6 billion. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $96,362, showing a slight increase despite heightened macroeconomic uncertainties.

比特幣（BTC）的價格在5月3日上漲至97,838美元，在過去10週內達到了最高水平，因為強勁的機構需求將美國上市的比特幣ETF提高了36億美元。在撰寫本文時，比特幣的交易價格為96,362美元，儘管宏觀經濟不確定性提高，但仍顯示出略有增加。

However, derivatives market data from Laevitas indicates that futures traders are showing some hesitation in taking on leveraged bullish positions. Analysts suggest that concerns over global trade tensions and a possible economic downturn are preventing traders from fully anticipating a breakout toward the psychological $100,000 mark.

但是，來自Laevitas的衍生品市場數據表明，期貨交易者對擔任槓桿的看漲立場表現出一定的猶豫。分析人士認為，對全球貿易緊張局勢以及可能的經濟低迷的擔憂正在阻止貿易商完全期望對100,000美元的心理差異。

Image: Bitcoin price 1W chart (CoinGecko)

圖片：比特幣價格1W圖表（Coingecko）

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw record net inflows of over $3.6 billion in the past two weeks, highlighting strong institutional interest in the crypto market. However, considering the modest 5% price increase during the same period, it appears that a portion of this activity is driven by delta-neutral strategies.

在過去的兩周中，美國現貨比特幣ETF的淨流入量超過36億美元，這突出了加密貨幣市場的強烈機構興趣。但是，考慮到同一時期的5％價格上漲，這一活動的一部分似乎是由Delta中性策略驅動的。

Essentially, this means that institutions are moving their existing Bitcoin holdings into listed products or hedging through derivatives rather than making fresh, outright bullish bets on Bitcoin.

從本質上講，這意味著機構正在將現有的比特幣持有物轉移到上市產品中或通過衍生產品進行對沖，而不是對比特幣進行新鮮的，完全看漲的賭注。

While the substantial institutional activity supports the long-term fundamentals of Bitcoin, its short-term impact on price appears to be limited. The lackluster reaction to Biden's executive order and the modest BTC rally despite record ETF inflows suggest that ETF demand alone might not be sufficient to propel Bitcoin to new all-time highs.

儘管實質性的機構活動支持比特幣的長期基本面，但其對價格的短期影響似乎受到限制。儘管ETF流入記錄，但對Biden的行政命令和適度的BTC拉力賽的反應平淡，這表明僅ETF需求可能不足以將比特幣推向新的歷史最高點。

Two-month futures annualized premium remains in the neutral zone at 6–7% according to Laevitas, suggesting that traders are not overly leveraged. Premiums above 10%, observed in January when BTC was also trading near $95,000, usually indicate strong directional conviction among futures traders.

根據Laevitas的數據，為期兩個月的期貨年度保費在中立區的中立區為6-7％，這表明交易者沒有過度槓桿率。超過10％的保費，當時BTC的交易也接近95,000美元，通常表明期貨交易者中有很強的方向定罪。

However, options markets present a more bullish narrative. The 25% delta skew, a measure of the difference in demand between calls and puts, is at its lowest level since mid-February, indicating that whales and market makers are increasingly pricing in higher odds of upside movement in the coming weeks.

但是，期權市場提出了更看漲的敘述。自2月中旬以來，呼叫和看跌期權之間需求差異的25％偏斜是其最低水平，這表明鯨魚和做市商在接下來的幾週內越來越多地以更高的上漲機率定價。

Bitcoin outperformed silver recently, rising to the seventh-largest tradable asset globally with a market cap of over $2.1 trillion. However, its performance is lagging behind gold's explosive 20% rally this year, which pushed its valuation past $21.7 trillion.

最近，比特幣的表現優於銀，上升到全球第七大可交易資產，市值超過2.1萬億美元。但是，其表現落後於今年Gold爆炸性20％的拉力賽，這將其估值推向了21.7萬億美元。

This divergence has sparked discussion around Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative, especially considering Bitcoin's increasing correlation with traditional risk assets like equities. Many investors now view Bitcoin's price path as closely tied to macroeconomic developments.

這種差異引發了關於比特幣的“數字黃金”敘述的討論，尤其是考慮到比特幣與股票等傳統風險資產的相關性不斷增加。現在，許多投資者將比特幣的價格路徑視為與宏觀經濟發展密切相關的。

Signals such as the U.S.–China trade conflict and the recent negative U.S. GDP print are having a greater impact on market sentiment than BTC's own blockchain activity.

與BTC自己的區塊鏈活動相比，美國 - 中國貿易衝突和最近的美國GDP印刷品等信號對市場情緒的影響更大。

Derivatives and ETF data suggest that Bitcoin could continue its upward momentum in the short term as traders remain cautiously optimistic. The lack of leverage usage and restrained futures premiums highlight a market that is optimistic but not euphoric.

導數和ETF數據表明，隨著交易者保持謹慎的樂觀，比特幣可以在短期內繼續其上升勢頭。缺乏槓桿用法和限制期貨保費突出了一個樂觀但興高采烈的市場。

If Bitcoin manages to hold above the $96,000 level with continued ETF inflows and no major macro shocks, then a slow grind toward $100K over the next few months seems plausible. However, any escalation in trade disputes or signs of stagflation could limit Bitcoin's gains and keep it trading in a range.

如果比特幣設法在$ 96,000的水平上保持持續的ETF流入且沒有重大的宏觀衝擊，那麼在接下來的幾個月中，較慢的磨損成本似乎是合理的。但是，任何貿易爭端的升級或停滯跡像都可以限制比特幣的收益，並將其貿易保持在一定範圍內。

Bitcoin may have the momentum to challenge $100K, but traders are hedging their bets. Without a clear macroeconomic green light or a surge in interest from retail traders, it remains to be seen what could drive BTC's next big move.

比特幣可能有挑戰10萬美元的勢頭，但交易者正在對沖他們的賭注。如果沒有清晰的宏觀經濟綠燈或零售商人感興趣的激增，還有什麼待觀察的是，什麼可以推動BTC的下一個大舉動。