比特币徘徊在$ 97,000美元附近，但衍生品数据显示，交易者仍然谨慎

比特币（BTC）价格上涨至5月3日的$ 97,838，标志着其10周内的最高水平

Bitcoin (BTC) price rose to $97,838 on May 3, reaching its highest level in the past 10 weeks as strong institutional demand pushed up U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs by over $3.6 billion. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $96,362, showing a slight increase despite heightened macroeconomic uncertainties.

比特币（BTC）的价格在5月3日上涨至97,838美元，在过去10周内达到了最高水平，因为强劲的机构需求将美国上市的比特币ETF提高了36亿美元。在撰写本文时，比特币的交易价格为96,362美元，尽管宏观经济不确定性提高，但仍显示出略有增加。

However, derivatives market data from Laevitas indicates that futures traders are showing some hesitation in taking on leveraged bullish positions. Analysts suggest that concerns over global trade tensions and a possible economic downturn are preventing traders from fully anticipating a breakout toward the psychological $100,000 mark.

但是，来自Laevitas的衍生品市场数据表明，期货交易者对担任杠杆的看涨立场表现出一定的犹豫。分析人士认为，对全球贸易紧张局势以及可能的经济衰退的担忧正在阻止贸易商完全期望对100,000美元的心理差异。

Image: Bitcoin price 1W chart (CoinGecko)

图片：比特币价格1W图表（Coingecko）

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw record net inflows of over $3.6 billion in the past two weeks, highlighting strong institutional interest in the crypto market. However, considering the modest 5% price increase during the same period, it appears that a portion of this activity is driven by delta-neutral strategies.

在过去的两周中，美国现货比特币ETF的净流入量超过36亿美元，这突出了加密货币市场的强烈机构兴趣。但是，考虑到同一时期的5％价格上涨，这一活动的一部分似乎是由Delta中性策略驱动的。

Essentially, this means that institutions are moving their existing Bitcoin holdings into listed products or hedging through derivatives rather than making fresh, outright bullish bets on Bitcoin.

从本质上讲，这意味着机构正在将现有的比特币持有物转移到上市产品中或通过衍生产品进行对冲，而不是对比特币进行新鲜的，完全看涨的赌注。

While the substantial institutional activity supports the long-term fundamentals of Bitcoin, its short-term impact on price appears to be limited. The lackluster reaction to Biden's executive order and the modest BTC rally despite record ETF inflows suggest that ETF demand alone might not be sufficient to propel Bitcoin to new all-time highs.

尽管实质性的机构活动支持比特币的长期基本面，但其对价格的短期影响似乎受到限制。尽管ETF流入记录，但对Biden的行政命令和适度的BTC拉力赛的反应平淡，这表明仅ETF需求可能不足以将比特币推向新的历史最高点。

Two-month futures annualized premium remains in the neutral zone at 6–7% according to Laevitas, suggesting that traders are not overly leveraged. Premiums above 10%, observed in January when BTC was also trading near $95,000, usually indicate strong directional conviction among futures traders.

根据Laevitas的数据，为期两个月的期货年度保费在中立区的中立区为6-7％，这表明交易者没有过度杠杆率。超过10％的保费，当时BTC的交易也接近95,000美元，通常表明期货交易者中有很强的方向定罪。

However, options markets present a more bullish narrative. The 25% delta skew, a measure of the difference in demand between calls and puts, is at its lowest level since mid-February, indicating that whales and market makers are increasingly pricing in higher odds of upside movement in the coming weeks.

但是，期权市场提出了更看涨的叙述。自2月中旬以来，呼叫和看跌期权之间需求差异的25％偏斜是其最低水平，这表明鲸鱼和做市商在接下来的几周内越来越多地以更高的上涨几率定价。

Bitcoin outperformed silver recently, rising to the seventh-largest tradable asset globally with a market cap of over $2.1 trillion. However, its performance is lagging behind gold's explosive 20% rally this year, which pushed its valuation past $21.7 trillion.

最近，比特币的表现优于银，上升到全球第七大可交易资产，市值超过2.1万亿美元。但是，其表现落后于今年Gold爆炸性20％的拉力赛，这将其估值推向了21.7万亿美元。

This divergence has sparked discussion around Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative, especially considering Bitcoin's increasing correlation with traditional risk assets like equities. Many investors now view Bitcoin's price path as closely tied to macroeconomic developments.

这种差异引发了关于比特币的“数字黄金”叙述的讨论，尤其是考虑到比特币与股票等传统风险资产的相关性不断增加。现在，许多投资者将比特币的价格路径视为与宏观经济发展密切相关的。

Signals such as the U.S.–China trade conflict and the recent negative U.S. GDP print are having a greater impact on market sentiment than BTC's own blockchain activity.

与BTC自己的区块链活动相比，美国 - 中国贸易冲突和最近的美国GDP印刷品等信号对市场情绪的影响更大。

Derivatives and ETF data suggest that Bitcoin could continue its upward momentum in the short term as traders remain cautiously optimistic. The lack of leverage usage and restrained futures premiums highlight a market that is optimistic but not euphoric.

导数和ETF数据表明，随着交易者保持谨慎的乐观，比特币可以在短期内继续其上升势头。缺乏杠杆用法和限制期货保费突出了一个乐观但兴高采烈的市场。

If Bitcoin manages to hold above the $96,000 level with continued ETF inflows and no major macro shocks, then a slow grind toward $100K over the next few months seems plausible. However, any escalation in trade disputes or signs of stagflation could limit Bitcoin's gains and keep it trading in a range.

如果比特币设法在$ 96,000的水平上保持持续的ETF流入且没有重大的宏观冲击，那么在接下来的几个月中，较慢的磨损成本似乎是合理的。但是，任何贸易争端的升级或停滞迹象都可以限制比特币的收益，并将其贸易保持在一定范围内。

Bitcoin may have the momentum to challenge $100K, but traders are hedging their bets. Without a clear macroeconomic green light or a surge in interest from retail traders, it remains to be seen what could drive BTC's next big move.

比特币可能有挑战10万美元的势头，但交易者正在对冲他们的赌注。如果没有清晰的宏观经济绿灯或零售商人感兴趣的激增，还有什么待观察的是，什么可以推动BTC的下一个大举动。