比特幣持有者在減半後採取觀望態度

由於比特幣交易者不願兌現利潤，減半似乎導致了從早期持有者到新進入者的初始分配。雖然最近的價格飆升被抹去，但指標表明存在“逆向背離”，持有情緒類似於歷史市場頂部。相反，市場價值與已實現價值（MVRV）比率的下降標誌著資產從早期持有者轉移到新市場參與者的重新分配階段。

The Reluctance of Bitcoin Hodlers: A Wait-and-See Approach After Halving

比特幣持有者的不情願：減半後的觀望態度

The recent halving of Bitcoin (BTC) has sparked a rollercoaster ride for the king coin. Surging to an all-time high of nearly $67,000 within three days of the epochal event, the gains have since been eroded, with BTC shedding 4% over the past 24 hours to trade below pre-halving levels.

最近，比特幣（BTC）減半引發了比特幣王者的過山車之旅。在這一劃時代事件發生後三天內，比特幣價格飆升至近 67,000 美元的歷史新高，但此後漲幅已被侵蝕，過去 24 小時內 BTC 下跌 4%，交易價格低於減半前的水平。

In the wake of this volatility, it is crucial to gauge where the world's largest digital asset stands post-halving and glean insights into its potential trajectory in the short to medium term.

在這種波動之後，衡量世界上最大的數位資產減半後的狀況並深入了解其中短期的潛在軌跡至關重要。

Profit-Taking Remains Subdued

獲利回吐依然疲軟

According to on-chain analytics firm Santiment, BTC traders have exhibited reluctance to cash in on their profits. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric remains in the lower regions, a pattern that aligns with previous market tops in 2017 and 2021.

據鏈上分析公司 Santiment 稱，比特幣交易者表現出不願兌現利潤。未實現淨損益 (NUPL) 指標仍處於較低區域，此模式與 2017 年和 2021 年之前的市場頂部一致。

The number of BTC holders is also reportedly on the rise.

據報道，比特幣持有者數量也在增加。

Santiment dubs this phenomenon a "contrarian divergence," wherein the market refuses to sell despite rising prices. While rooted in the belief of BTC's long-term growth potential, this phase has historically preceded "significant market tops," rendering it a somewhat bearish signal.

桑蒂門特將這種現象稱為“逆向背離”，即儘管價格上漲，但市場拒絕出售。雖然植根於對比特幣長期增長潛力的信念，但這一階段歷史上先於“顯著的市場頂部”，這使其成為一個有點看跌的信號。

HODLers Redistributing

HODLers 重新分配

Conversely, the Mean Dollar Invested Age (MDIA) indicator has declined sharply in recent months, signaling a period of active redistribution.

相反，平均美元投資年齡（MDIA）指標近幾個月急劇下降，預示著一段積極的再分配時期。

During redistribution phases, assets are being transferred from early HODLers to newer market entrants. Historically, after approximately 12 months of such redistribution cycles, the market reverted to accumulation phases, bolstering the belief that the bull market will persist.

在重新分配階段，資產從早期的持有者轉移到新的市場進入者。從歷史上看，經過大約 12 個月的此類再分配週期後，市場回到吸籌階段，增強了牛市將持續的信念。

Supply Dynamics

供應動態

The aforementioned dynamics are reflected in the supply distribution across key cohorts. Notably, small-time holders or those holding up to 1 Bitcoin are reportedly accumulating post-halving.

上述動態反映在關鍵人群的供應分佈。值得注意的是，據報道，小額持有者或持有 1 個比特幣的人正在減半後累積比特幣。

In contrast, sharks and whales, holding anywhere between 100 to 100,000 coins, are distributing their holdings.

相比之下，持有 100 到 100,000 個代幣的鯊魚和鯨魚正在分配其持有的代幣。

Conclusion

結論

The post-halving landscape for Bitcoin is characterized by a reluctance among traders to book profits, a trend supported by historical precedents. However, the redistribution of holdings suggests that the market is transitioning to a phase where early adopters are taking profits while new entrants accumulate.

比特幣減半後的特點是交易者不願獲利，這一趨勢得到了歷史先例的支持。然而，持股的重新分配表明市場正在過渡到早期採用者獲利而新進入者累積的階段。

While the NUPL metric points to potential market tops, the declining MDIA and increasing accumulation by small-time holders indicate that the bull market may still have legs. The supply dynamics further corroborate this view, with whales distributing their holdings while retail investors accumulate.

雖然 NUPL 指標指向潛在的市場頂部，但 MDIA 的下降和小型持有者增持的增加表明牛市可能仍然存在。供應動態進一步證實了這一觀點，鯨魚們在分配所持股份，而散戶投資者則在增持。

Overall, the post-halving market for Bitcoin remains in a state of flux, with both bullish and bearish signals present. Long-term holders and those looking to enter the market should exercise caution and closely monitor the evolving dynamics to make informed decisions.

整體而言，比特幣減半後的市場仍處於不斷變化的狀態，看漲和看跌訊號並存。長期持有者和希望進入市場的人應謹慎行事，並密切關注不斷變化的動態，以做出明智的決定。