比特币持有者在减半后采取观望态度

由于比特币交易者不愿兑现利润，减半似乎导致了从早期持有者到新进入者的初始分配。虽然最近的价格飙升被抹去，但指标表明存在“逆向背离”，持有情绪类似于历史市场顶部。相反，市场价值与已实现价值（MVRV）比率的下降标志着资产从早期持有者转移到新市场参与者的重新分配阶段。

The Reluctance of Bitcoin Hodlers: A Wait-and-See Approach After Halving

比特币持有者的不情愿：减半后的观望态度

The recent halving of Bitcoin (BTC) has sparked a rollercoaster ride for the king coin. Surging to an all-time high of nearly $67,000 within three days of the epochal event, the gains have since been eroded, with BTC shedding 4% over the past 24 hours to trade below pre-halving levels.

最近，比特币（BTC）减半引发了比特币王者的过山车之旅。在这一划时代事件发生后三天内，比特币价格飙升至近 67,000 美元的历史新高，但此后涨幅已被侵蚀，过去 24 小时内 BTC 下跌 4%，交易价格低于减半前的水平。

In the wake of this volatility, it is crucial to gauge where the world's largest digital asset stands post-halving and glean insights into its potential trajectory in the short to medium term.

在这种波动之后，衡量世界上最大的数字资产减半后的状况并深入了解其中短期的潜在轨迹至关重要。

Profit-Taking Remains Subdued

获利回吐依然疲软

According to on-chain analytics firm Santiment, BTC traders have exhibited reluctance to cash in on their profits. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric remains in the lower regions, a pattern that aligns with previous market tops in 2017 and 2021.

据链上分析公司 Santiment 称，比特币交易者表现出不愿兑现利润。未实现净损益 (NUPL) 指标仍处于较低区域，这一模式与 2017 年和 2021 年之前的市场顶部一致。

The number of BTC holders is also reportedly on the rise.

据报道，比特币持有者数量也在增加。

Santiment dubs this phenomenon a "contrarian divergence," wherein the market refuses to sell despite rising prices. While rooted in the belief of BTC's long-term growth potential, this phase has historically preceded "significant market tops," rendering it a somewhat bearish signal.

桑蒂门特将这种现象称为“逆向背离”，即尽管价格上涨，但市场拒绝出售。虽然植根于对比特币长期增长潜力的信念，但这一阶段历史上先于“显着的市场顶部”，这使其成为一个有点看跌的信号。

HODLers Redistributing

HODLers 重新分配

Conversely, the Mean Dollar Invested Age (MDIA) indicator has declined sharply in recent months, signaling a period of active redistribution.

相反，平均美元投资年龄（MDIA）指标近几个月急剧下降，预示着一段积极的再分配时期。

During redistribution phases, assets are being transferred from early HODLers to newer market entrants. Historically, after approximately 12 months of such redistribution cycles, the market reverted to accumulation phases, bolstering the belief that the bull market will persist.

在重新分配阶段，资产从早期的持有者转移到新的市场进入者。从历史上看，经过大约 12 个月的此类再分配周期后，市场回到吸筹阶段，增强了牛市将持续的信念。

Supply Dynamics

供应动态

The aforementioned dynamics are reflected in the supply distribution across key cohorts. Notably, small-time holders or those holding up to 1 Bitcoin are reportedly accumulating post-halving.

上述动态反映在关键人群的供应分布中。值得注意的是，据报道，小额持有者或持有 1 个比特币的人正在减半后积累比特币。

In contrast, sharks and whales, holding anywhere between 100 to 100,000 coins, are distributing their holdings.

相比之下，持有 100 到 100,000 个代币的鲨鱼和鲸鱼正在分配其持有的代币。

Conclusion

结论

The post-halving landscape for Bitcoin is characterized by a reluctance among traders to book profits, a trend supported by historical precedents. However, the redistribution of holdings suggests that the market is transitioning to a phase where early adopters are taking profits while new entrants accumulate.

比特币减半后的特点是交易者不愿获利，这一趋势得到了历史先例的支持。然而，持股的重新分配表明市场正在过渡到早期采用者获利而新进入者积累的阶段。

While the NUPL metric points to potential market tops, the declining MDIA and increasing accumulation by small-time holders indicate that the bull market may still have legs. The supply dynamics further corroborate this view, with whales distributing their holdings while retail investors accumulate.

虽然 NUPL 指标指向潜在的市场顶部，但 MDIA 的下降和小型持有者增持的增加表明牛市可能仍然存在。供应动态进一步证实了这一观点，鲸鱼们在分配所持股份，而散户投资者则在增持。

Overall, the post-halving market for Bitcoin remains in a state of flux, with both bullish and bearish signals present. Long-term holders and those looking to enter the market should exercise caution and closely monitor the evolving dynamics to make informed decisions.

总体而言，比特币减半后的市场仍处于不断变化的状态，看涨和看跌信号并存。长期持有者和希望进入市场的人应谨慎行事，并密切关注不断变化的动态，以做出明智的决定。