比特幣哈希絲帶顯示礦工投降仍在繼續

一位分析師解釋說，比特幣歷史上已經從看跌階段復甦，就像加密貨幣正在經歷的那樣。

A new analysis claims that Bitcoin (BTC) price recovery occurs when “weak miners die and hash rate recovers.”

一項新的分析稱，當「弱礦工死亡並且哈希率恢復」時，比特幣（BTC）價格就會回升。

Analyst Willy Woo explained this in a recent post on Substack. He explained that Bitcoin miner capitulation is still ongoing, and the hashrate has been signaling miner capitulation for 61 days now.

分析師 Willy Woo 在 Substack 最近的一篇文章中解釋了這一點。他解釋說，比特幣礦工投降仍在繼續，算力已經向礦工發出投降訊號 61 天了。

For the uninitiated, Bitcoin hashrate is a measure of the total computing power that miners have connected to the network currently. When this indicator rises, it suggests that miners are finding the chain attractive to mine on right now.

對外行人來說，比特幣算力是衡量礦工目前連接到網路的總運算能力的指標。當該指標上升時，表示礦工發現該鏈現在對挖礦具有吸引力。

On the other hand, a decline in the metric implies that some miners have decided to disconnect from the network, perhaps because they are currently finding it unprofitable to mine BTC.

另一方面，該指標的下降意味著一些礦工已經決定斷開與網路的連接，也許是因為他們目前發現開採 BTC 無利可圖。

One way to gauge whether either of these behaviors is any sustained trend can be through the “hash ribbons.” This indicator compares a short-term moving average (MA) of the hashrate against a long-term one.

衡量這些行為是否是持續趨勢的一種方法是透過「哈希帶」。此指標將算力的短期移動平均線 (MA) 與長期移動平均線進行比較。

When the former falls below the latter, the miners capitulate en masse. Similarly, a crossover of the reverse type suggests capitulation among this cohort has ended.

當前者低於後者時，礦工集體投降。同樣，相反類型的交叉表明該群體的投降已經結束。

Now, how do the hash ribbons relate to the asset’s price? As Woo notes, BTC shows recovery when “weak miners die and hash rate recovers.” This corresponds to the phase of the market where capitulation has finished.

現在，哈希帶與資產價格有何關係？正如 Woo 指出的那樣，當「弱礦工死亡、哈希率恢復」時，比特幣就會出現復甦。這對應於市場投降結束的階段。

Below is the chart for the hash ribbons shared by the analyst that shows how the miner situation is looking right now.

下面是分析師分享的哈希帶圖表，顯示了礦工目前的情況。

As displayed in the graph, the Bitcoin hash ribbons signal that the miners are going through capitulation. The reason behind this poor situation of the miners lies in the Halving event that went through back in April.

如圖所示，比特幣哈希帶表明礦工正在經歷投降。礦工處境不佳的原因在於4月的減半事件。

Halvings are periodic events that occur every four years and slash the block rewards of the network permanently in half. The block rewards here naturally refer to the rewards miners receive as compensation for solving blocks on the chain.

減半是每四年發生一次的周期性事件，並將網路的區塊獎勵永久減半。這裡的區塊獎勵自然指的是礦場工作為解決鏈上區塊的補償而獲得的獎勵。

These rewards make up the major part of the revenue of this cohort, so their being cut in half can drastically affect their finances. As such, it’s unsurprising that the hashrate has been in a downtrend recently.

這些獎勵構成了該群體收入的主要部分，因此將其減少一半可能會極大地影響他們的財務狀況。因此，算力最近處於下降趨勢也就不足為奇了。

Something interesting about the latest capitulation is that the hash ribbons have been giving this signal for 61 days now. “This one is for the record books as it’s taking a lot of time for miner capitulation post-halving,” says Woo.

關於最新投降的一個有趣的事情是，哈希帶已經發出這個訊號 61 天了。 「這已經載入史冊了，因為減半後礦工投降需要很長時間，」Woo 說。

For comparison, here is a close-up view of how the stressful mining period in 2016 looked like.

為了進行比較，這裡是 2016 年緊張的採礦時期的特寫。

It took the miners 24 days to see a recovery back then, which is notably shorter than the length of the capitulation event in the current cycle thus far. The 2020 one was even shorter, with the hash ribbons seeing the reverse cross in 8 days.

當時礦工們花了 24 天才看到復甦，這明顯短於當前週期迄今為止的投降事件的持續時間。 2020 年的較短，哈希帶在 8 天內出現反向交叉。

It now remains to be seen when the hash ribbons would cross back again this time around and whether the miner recovery would also lead toward a recovery in the Bitcoin price.

現在還有待觀察，這次哈希帶何時會再次交叉，以及礦工的復甦是否也會導致比特幣價格的復甦。