比特币哈希丝带显示矿工投降仍在继续

一位分析师解释说，比特币历史上已经从看跌阶段复苏，就像加密货币正在经历的那样。

A new analysis claims that Bitcoin (BTC) price recovery occurs when “weak miners die and hash rate recovers.”

一项新的分析称，当“弱矿工死亡并且哈希率恢复”时，比特币（BTC）价格就会回升。

Analyst Willy Woo explained this in a recent post on Substack. He explained that Bitcoin miner capitulation is still ongoing, and the hashrate has been signaling miner capitulation for 61 days now.

分析师 Willy Woo 在 Substack 最近的一篇文章中解释了这一点。他解释说，比特币矿工投降仍在继续，算力已经向矿工发出投降信号 61 天了。

For the uninitiated, Bitcoin hashrate is a measure of the total computing power that miners have connected to the network currently. When this indicator rises, it suggests that miners are finding the chain attractive to mine on right now.

对于外行来说，比特币算力是衡量矿工当前连接到网络的总计算能力的指标。当该指标上升时，表明矿工发现该链现在对挖矿具有吸引力。

On the other hand, a decline in the metric implies that some miners have decided to disconnect from the network, perhaps because they are currently finding it unprofitable to mine BTC.

另一方面，该指标的下降意味着一些矿工已经决定断开与网络的连接，也许是因为他们目前发现开采 BTC 无利可图。

One way to gauge whether either of these behaviors is any sustained trend can be through the “hash ribbons.” This indicator compares a short-term moving average (MA) of the hashrate against a long-term one.

衡量这些行为是否是持续趋势的一种方法是通过“哈希带”。该指标将算力的短期移动平均线 (MA) 与长期移动平均线进行比较。

When the former falls below the latter, the miners capitulate en masse. Similarly, a crossover of the reverse type suggests capitulation among this cohort has ended.

当前者低于后者时，矿工集体投降。同样，相反类型的交叉表明该群体的投降已经结束。

Now, how do the hash ribbons relate to the asset’s price? As Woo notes, BTC shows recovery when “weak miners die and hash rate recovers.” This corresponds to the phase of the market where capitulation has finished.

现在，哈希带与资产价格有何关系？正如 Woo 指出的那样，当“弱矿工死亡、哈希率恢复”时，比特币就会出现复苏。这对应于市场投降结束的阶段。

Below is the chart for the hash ribbons shared by the analyst that shows how the miner situation is looking right now.

下面是分析师分享的哈希带图表，显示了矿工目前的情况。

As displayed in the graph, the Bitcoin hash ribbons signal that the miners are going through capitulation. The reason behind this poor situation of the miners lies in the Halving event that went through back in April.

如图所示，比特币哈希带表明矿工正在经历投降。矿工处境不佳的原因在于4月份的减半事件。

Halvings are periodic events that occur every four years and slash the block rewards of the network permanently in half. The block rewards here naturally refer to the rewards miners receive as compensation for solving blocks on the chain.

减半是每四年发生一次的周期性事件，并将网络的区块奖励永久减半。这里的区块奖励自然指的是矿工作为解决链上区块的补偿而获得的奖励。

These rewards make up the major part of the revenue of this cohort, so their being cut in half can drastically affect their finances. As such, it’s unsurprising that the hashrate has been in a downtrend recently.

这些奖励构成了该群体收入的主要部分，因此将其减少一半可能会极大地影响他们的财务状况。因此，算力最近处于下降趋势也就不足为奇了。

Something interesting about the latest capitulation is that the hash ribbons have been giving this signal for 61 days now. “This one is for the record books as it’s taking a lot of time for miner capitulation post-halving,” says Woo.

关于最新投降的一个有趣的事情是，哈希带已经发出这个信号 61 天了。 “这已经载入史册了，因为减半后矿工投降需要很长时间，”Woo 说。

For comparison, here is a close-up view of how the stressful mining period in 2016 looked like.

为了进行比较，这里是 2016 年紧张的采矿时期的特写视图。

It took the miners 24 days to see a recovery back then, which is notably shorter than the length of the capitulation event in the current cycle thus far. The 2020 one was even shorter, with the hash ribbons seeing the reverse cross in 8 days.

当时矿工们花了 24 天才看到复苏，这明显短于当前周期迄今为止的投降事件的持续时间。 2020 年的更短，哈希带在 8 天内出现反向交叉。

It now remains to be seen when the hash ribbons would cross back again this time around and whether the miner recovery would also lead toward a recovery in the Bitcoin price.

现在还有待观察，这次哈希带何时会再次交叉，以及矿工的复苏是否也会导致比特币价格的复苏。