比特幣減半仍然是一個重大事件，儘管迄今為止其影響並不顯著

公平地說，直到最近，備受期待的比特幣（BTC -0.94%）減半基本上還沒有給人留下深刻印象。

When the recent Bitcoin (BTC -0.94%) halving finally arrived on April 19, many cryptocurrency enthusiasts were expecting an immediate and substantial surge in the coin's price. After all, Bitcoin mining rewards were being cut in half, which should have created a scenario where supply and demand drove the price up quickly.

當最近的比特幣 (BTC -0.94%) 減半最終於 4 月 19 日到來時，許多加密貨幣愛好者預計比特幣的價格會立即大幅上漲。畢竟，比特幣挖礦獎勵被削減了一半，這應該會造成供需推動價格迅速上漲的情況。

But much to the surprise of many, Bitcoin price gains have been surprisingly underwhelming since the halving. At the time of the halving, Bitcoin was trading near $64,000. For much of the next month, Bitcoin traded down or sideways, and at one point even dipped below the $57,000 level.

但令許多人驚訝的是，自從減半以來，比特幣價格漲幅出乎意料地平淡無奇。減半時，比特幣交易價格接近 64,000 美元。在接下來的一個月的大部分時間裡，比特幣都在下跌或橫盤整理，甚至一度跌破 57,000 美元的水平。

So, what gives? Most halving cycles last anywhere from 12 to 18 months, and there's still plenty of time for the halving effects to kick in. So, what can we expect from this halving in the months ahead, and just how much higher can Bitcoin go?

那麼，什麼給出呢？大多數減半週期持續 12 到 18 個月，而且還有足夠的時間讓減半效應發揮作用。

Let's take a closer look at the data from previous Bitcoin halvings and see what it might tell us about the future.

讓我們仔細看看之前比特幣減半的數據，看看它可能告訴我們關於未來的什麼。

Data from previous Bitcoin halvingsThe biggest reason for optimism is Bitcoin's price performance after the previous halving events that took place in 2012, 2016, and 2020. In each case, Bitcoin skyrocketed to a much higher price, setting a new all-time high in the process.

先前比特幣減半的數據樂觀的最大原因是比特幣在2012 年、2016 年和2020 年發生的前幾次減半事件後的價格表現。至更高的水平，創下了歷史新高。

For example, after the 2012 halving, Bitcoin rose from around $12 to hit a then-all-time high of $1,250 in December 2013. That's an increase of more than 100-fold in just over a year.

例如，2012 年減半後，比特幣從 12 美元左右上漲到 2013 年 12 月達到當時的歷史新高 1,250 美元。

After the 2016 halving, Bitcoin rose from around $700 to hit a then-all-time high of $20,000 in December 2017. That's an increase of nearly 30-fold in just over two years.

2016 年減半後，比特幣從 700 美元左右上漲到 2017 年 12 月創下的歷史新高 2 萬美元。

And after the 2020 halving, Bitcoin soared from around $10,000 to hit a then-all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021. That's an increase of nearly seven-fold in just over a year.

2020 年減半後，比特幣從 10,000 美元左右飆升至 2021 年 11 月創下 69,000 美元的歷史新高。

Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future performance. But it's easy to see why so many analysts were expecting huge price gains for Bitcoin this year. Prior to the 2024 halving, there had been three halvings, and each one brought huge, outsized gains for Bitcoin.

當然，過去的表現並不能保證未來的表現。但很容易理解為什麼這麼多分析師預計今年比特幣價格將大幅上漲。在2024年減半之前，已經發生過三次減半，每一次減半都為比特幣帶來了巨大的收益。

What happened this time?A number of reasons have been offered as to why Bitcoin price gains have been so underwhelming since the recent halving.

這次發生了什麼事？

One potential explanation is that market participants had already priced in the effect of the halving. This makes a lot of sense if you believe in the efficient market hypothesis. Investors have known the date of the halving for four years, so they had plenty of advance notice.

一個可能的解釋是，市場參與者已經消化了減半的影響。如果您相信有效市場假說，那麼這很有意義。投資者四年前就知道減半的日期，因此他們提前得到了充分的通知。

Another explanation involves the new spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The introduction of these ETFs in January sped up the timeline for Bitcoin price appreciation. Bitcoin typically hits a new all-time high after the halving. This time, Bitcoin hit a new all-time high in mid-March, nearly one month prior to the halving. From this perspective, Bitcoin simply peaked too early due to the huge influx of new investor money at the start of the year.

另一種解釋涉及新的現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）。一月份這些 ETF 的推出加快了比特幣價格升值的時間。比特幣通常會在減半後創下歷史新高。這次，比特幣在3月中旬創下歷史新高，距離減半還有將近一個月的時間。從這個角度來看，由於年初大量新投資者資金湧入，比特幣見頂為時過早。

What to expect nowThus, if you were hoping to become an overnight Bitcoin millionaire as a result of the halving, you'll need to readjust your expectations. These things take time. And in the case of the Bitcoin halving, it could take as long as one year to see the full impact.

現在可以期待什麼因此，如果您希望因減半而一夜之間成為比特幣百萬富翁，您將需要重新調整您的期望。這些事情需要時間。在比特幣減半的情況下，可能需要長達一年的時間才能看到全部影響。

Take a closer look at the phenomenal returns attributed to the first three Bitcoin halving cycles. It required 300 days or more to generate those eye-popping results.

仔細看看前三個比特幣減半週期帶來的驚人回報。需要 300 天或更長時間才能產生這些令人瞠目結舌的結果。

Will Bitcoin ever hit $1 million?It's encouraging that some Wall Street analysts are actually doubling down on their earlier price forecasts for Bitcoin.

比特幣會達到 100 萬美元嗎？

Investment firm Bernstein, for example, still thinks Bitcoin will hit $150,000 by the end of next year. That implies a more than doubling from Bitcoin's current price of $70,000. And Cathie Wood of Ark Invest now believes Bitcoin will hit a price of $1 million sometime before 2030, primarily due to the phenomenal success of the new spot Bitcoin ETFs.

例如，投資公司伯恩斯坦仍然認為比特幣到明年年底將達到 15 萬美元。這意味著比特幣當前價格 70,000 美元的價格增加了一倍以上。 Ark Invest 的 Cathie Wood 現在認為，比特幣的價格將在 2030 年之前達到 100 萬美元，這主要歸功於新的現貨比特幣 ETF 的巨大成功。

When you dig into the numbers Wood used to make her original $1 million price forecast, you can get a much better grasp of just how well Bitcoin needs to perform after the halving.

當你深入研究 Wood 最初預測 100 萬美元價格所使用的數字時，你可以更了解比特幣在減半後需要表現如何。

In a bull case scenario, she assumed 75% annualized returns for Bitcoin, which led to an ultimate price of $1.48

在牛市情境中，她假設比特幣的年化報酬率為 75%，最終價格為 1.48 美元