比特币减半仍然是一个重大事件，尽管迄今为止其影响并不显着

公平地说，直到最近，备受期待的比特币（BTC -0.94%）减半基本上还没有给人留下深刻印象。

When the recent Bitcoin (BTC -0.94%) halving finally arrived on April 19, many cryptocurrency enthusiasts were expecting an immediate and substantial surge in the coin's price. After all, Bitcoin mining rewards were being cut in half, which should have created a scenario where supply and demand drove the price up quickly.

当最近的比特币 (BTC -0.94%) 减半最终于 4 月 19 日到来时，许多加密货币爱好者预计比特币的价格会立即大幅上涨。毕竟，比特币挖矿奖励被削减了一半，这应该会造成供需推动价格迅速上涨的情况。

But much to the surprise of many, Bitcoin price gains have been surprisingly underwhelming since the halving. At the time of the halving, Bitcoin was trading near $64,000. For much of the next month, Bitcoin traded down or sideways, and at one point even dipped below the $57,000 level.

但令许多人惊讶的是，自减半以来，比特币价格涨幅出人意料地平淡无奇。减半时，比特币交易价格接近 64,000 美元。在接下来的一个月的大部分时间里，比特币都在下跌或横盘整理，甚至一度跌破 57,000 美元的水平。

So, what gives? Most halving cycles last anywhere from 12 to 18 months, and there's still plenty of time for the halving effects to kick in. So, what can we expect from this halving in the months ahead, and just how much higher can Bitcoin go?

那么，什么给出呢？大多数减半周期持续 12 到 18 个月，而且还有足够的时间让减半效应发挥作用。那么，我们对未来几个月的减半有何预期，比特币到底能涨多少？

Let's take a closer look at the data from previous Bitcoin halvings and see what it might tell us about the future.

让我们仔细看看之前比特币减半的数据，看看它可能告诉我们关于未来的什么信息。

Data from previous Bitcoin halvingsThe biggest reason for optimism is Bitcoin's price performance after the previous halving events that took place in 2012, 2016, and 2020. In each case, Bitcoin skyrocketed to a much higher price, setting a new all-time high in the process.

此前比特币减半的数据乐观的最大原因是比特币在 2012 年、2016 年和 2020 年发生的前几次减半事件后的价格表现。在每一次减半事件中，比特币的价格都飙升至更高的水平，创下了历史新高。过程。

For example, after the 2012 halving, Bitcoin rose from around $12 to hit a then-all-time high of $1,250 in December 2013. That's an increase of more than 100-fold in just over a year.

例如，2012 年减半后，比特币从 12 美元左右上涨到 2013 年 12 月达到当时的历史新高 1,250 美元。在短短一年多的时间里，价格上涨了 100 多倍。

After the 2016 halving, Bitcoin rose from around $700 to hit a then-all-time high of $20,000 in December 2017. That's an increase of nearly 30-fold in just over two years.

2016 年减半后，比特币从 700 美元左右上涨到 2017 年 12 月创下的历史新高 20,000 美元。在短短两年多的时间里增长了近 30 倍。

And after the 2020 halving, Bitcoin soared from around $10,000 to hit a then-all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021. That's an increase of nearly seven-fold in just over a year.

2020 年减半后，比特币从 10,000 美元左右飙升至 2021 年 11 月创下 69,000 美元的历史新高。在短短一年多的时间里增长了近七倍。

Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future performance. But it's easy to see why so many analysts were expecting huge price gains for Bitcoin this year. Prior to the 2024 halving, there had been three halvings, and each one brought huge, outsized gains for Bitcoin.

当然，过去的表现并不能保证未来的表现。但很容易理解为什么这么多分析师预计今年比特币价格将大幅上涨。在2024年减半之前，已经发生过三次减半，每一次减半都给比特币带来了巨大的收益。

What happened this time?A number of reasons have been offered as to why Bitcoin price gains have been so underwhelming since the recent halving.

这次发生了什么？有很多原因可以解释为什么自最近减半以来比特币价格涨幅如此平淡。

One potential explanation is that market participants had already priced in the effect of the halving. This makes a lot of sense if you believe in the efficient market hypothesis. Investors have known the date of the halving for four years, so they had plenty of advance notice.

一种可能的解释是，市场参与者已经消化了减半的影响。如果您相信有效市场假说，那么这很有意义。投资者四年前就知道减半的日期，因此他们提前得到了充分的通知。

Another explanation involves the new spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The introduction of these ETFs in January sped up the timeline for Bitcoin price appreciation. Bitcoin typically hits a new all-time high after the halving. This time, Bitcoin hit a new all-time high in mid-March, nearly one month prior to the halving. From this perspective, Bitcoin simply peaked too early due to the huge influx of new investor money at the start of the year.

另一种解释涉及新的现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）。一月份这些 ETF 的推出加快了比特币价格升值的时间。比特币通常会在减半后创下历史新高。这次，比特币在3月中旬创下历史新高，距离减半还有近一个月的时间。从这个角度来看，由于年初大量新投资者资金涌入，比特币见顶为时过早。

What to expect nowThus, if you were hoping to become an overnight Bitcoin millionaire as a result of the halving, you'll need to readjust your expectations. These things take time. And in the case of the Bitcoin halving, it could take as long as one year to see the full impact.

现在可以期待什么因此，如果您希望因减半而一夜之间成为比特币百万富翁，您将需要重新调整您的期望。这些事情需要时间。在比特币减半的情况下，可能需要长达一年的时间才能看到全部影响。

Take a closer look at the phenomenal returns attributed to the first three Bitcoin halving cycles. It required 300 days or more to generate those eye-popping results.

仔细看看前三个比特币减半周期带来的惊人回报。需要 300 天或更长时间才能产生这些令人瞠目结舌的结果。

Will Bitcoin ever hit $1 million?It's encouraging that some Wall Street analysts are actually doubling down on their earlier price forecasts for Bitcoin.

比特币会达到 100 万美元吗？令人鼓舞的是，一些华尔街分析师实际上正在加倍降低他们之前对比特币的价格预测。

Investment firm Bernstein, for example, still thinks Bitcoin will hit $150,000 by the end of next year. That implies a more than doubling from Bitcoin's current price of $70,000. And Cathie Wood of Ark Invest now believes Bitcoin will hit a price of $1 million sometime before 2030, primarily due to the phenomenal success of the new spot Bitcoin ETFs.

例如，投资公司伯恩斯坦仍然认为比特币到明年年底将达到 15 万美元。这意味着比特币当前价格 70,000 美元的价格增加了一倍多。 Ark Invest 的 Cathie Wood 现在认为，比特币的价格将在 2030 年之前达到 100 万美元，这主要归功于新的现货比特币 ETF 的巨大成功。

When you dig into the numbers Wood used to make her original $1 million price forecast, you can get a much better grasp of just how well Bitcoin needs to perform after the halving.

当你深入研究 Wood 最初预测 100 万美元价格所用的数字时，你可以更好地了解比特币在减半后需要表现如何。

In a bull case scenario, she assumed 75% annualized returns for Bitcoin, which led to an ultimate price of $1.48

在牛市情景中，她假设比特币的年化回报率为 75%，最终价格为 1.48 美元