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本文探討了比特幣(BTC)期貨開放興趣的記錄,提出了有關看跌頭寸是否處於危險中的問題。
The aggregate open interest in Bitcoin (BTC) futures soared to a record high of $72 billion on May 20, converging with the cryptocurrency's persistent attempts to breach the $107,000 level.
5月20日,比特幣(BTC)期貨的總開放興趣飆升至720億美元,這與加密貨幣的持續企圖融合了違反107,000美元的水平。
Despite repeated failures to break above the $107,000 mark since May 18, the sheer volume of leveraged positions could propel Bitcoin to a new all-time high.
儘管自5月18日以來反復出現的失敗率超過了107,000美元的大關,但槓桿率的巨大量可能會使比特幣達到新的歷史最高水平。
Bitcoin futures open interest
比特幣期貨開放興趣
The total open interest in BTC futures rose to $72 billion on May 20, showcasing a 8% increase from $66.6 billion just a week earlier.
5月20日,BTC期貨的總開放利息增至720億美元,從一周前的666億美元增長了8%。
This institutional demand is being channeled largely through the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), where open interest in BTC futures reached $16.9 billion.
這一機構需求主要通過芝加哥商業交易所(CME)傳達,在那裡,對BTC期貨的開放興趣達到169億美元。
Coming in second is Binance, which holds $12 billion in open interest, while smaller exchanges like FTX and Huobi contribute to the remaining open interest in BTC futures.
僅次於Binance,該公司持有120億美元的開放利息,而FTX和Huobi等較小的交易所為BTC期貨的剩餘開放利息做出了貢獻。
$1.2 billion in shorts at risk of liquidation
12億美元的短褲,有清算風險
According to CoinGlass estimates, the largest concentration of bearish BTC futures liquidations is clustered between $107,000 and $108,000.
根據Coinglass的估計,看跌BTC期貨清算的最大濃度集群在107,000美元至108,000美元之間。
The liquidations at those price levels add up to approximately $1.2 billion.
這些價格水平的清算總計約為12億美元。
The price of BTC dropped to as low as $106,600 on May 19 before rebounding to $107,300 at the time of writing.
5月19日,BTC的價格下跌至5月19日至106,600美元,然後在撰寫本文時籃板至107,300美元。
It remains unclear what could spark a breakout above $108,000 to force those leveraged shorts to unwind, but there is growing optimism tied to rising concerns over United States fiscal debt.
目前尚不清楚什麼可能引發108,000美元以上的突破,以迫使那些槓桿短褲放鬆身心,但是隨著對美國財政債務的不斷擔憂的不斷增長而越來越樂觀。
Uncertainty remains about how the government plans to achieve economic growth while reducing spending, especially in light of ongoing disagreement between Democratic and Republican lawmakers.
關於政府計劃如何在減少支出的同時計劃實現經濟增長的不確定性,尤其是鑑於民主黨和共和黨立法者之間的持續分歧。
More importantly, yields on the 20-year US Treasury remain close to 5%, up from 4.82% two weeks earlier.
更重要的是,美國20年的美國財政部的收益率接近5%,高於兩週前的4.82%。
Weak demand for long-term government debt may compel the US Federal Reserve to step in as the buyer of last resort to maintain market stability, reversing a 26-month trend. This approach puts downward pressure on the US dollar and drives investors to seek alternative hedging strategies, including Bitcoin.
對長期政府債務的需求疲軟可能會迫使美國美聯儲成為Last Resort的買方,以維持市場穩定,從而扭轉了26個月的趨勢。這種方法給美元施加了向下壓力,並促使投資者尋求包括比特幣在內的替代套期保值策略。
Gold dominates, but Bitcoin absorbs flow amid reserve reallocations
黃金占主導
Gold remains the dominant alternative asset, but its 24% year-to-date gains in 2025 and $22 trillion market capitalization make it less attractive to many investors.
黃金仍然是主要的替代資產,但其在2025年畢業24%,市值為22萬億美元,使其對許多投資者的吸引力降低。
For context, the entire S&P 500 index is valued at $53 trillion, while US bank deposits and Treasury bills (M1) amount to $18.6 trillion. In contrast, Bitcoin currently represents a $2.1 trillion asset class, roughly equivalent in size to silver.
在上下文中,整個標準普爾500指數的價值為53萬億美元,而美國銀行存款和國庫賬單(M1)為18.6萬億美元。相比之下,比特幣目前代表了2.1萬億美元的資產類別,大小相當於銀。
Meanwhile, some regions, notably the US, have begun laying the groundwork to shift portions of their gold reserves into Bitcoin—an action that could easily propel BTC to a new all-time high.
同時,某些地區,特別是美國,已經開始為將其黃金儲量的部分轉移到比特幣中,這一行動很容易將BTC推向新的歷史最高水平。
A modest 5% reallocation from gold into Bitcoin by those nations would translate into a $105 billion inflow, equivalent to 1 million BTC at a price of $105,000.
這些國家從黃金到比特幣的5%重新分配將轉化為1050億美元的流入,相當於100萬BTC,價格為105,000美元。
For perspective, Strategy, the US-listed firm led by Michael Saylor, currently holds 576,230 BTC.
從角度來看,戰略是由邁克爾·塞勒(Michael Saylor)領導的美國上市公司,目前擁有576,230 BTC。
There is little doubt that institutional buying remains the primary catalyst for Bitcoin to break above the $108,000 level. Such a move would trigger the liquidation of heavily leveraged bearish positions, likely accelerating the push to a new all-time high. However, persistent macroeconomic uncertainty continues to weigh on overall investor sentiment.
毫無疑問,機構購買仍然是比特幣超過108,000美元水平的主要催化劑。這樣的舉動會觸發嚴重槓桿的看跌位置的清算,這可能會加速推動新的歷史最高水平。但是,持續的宏觀經濟不確定性繼續對整體投資者情緒加重。
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