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本文探讨了比特币(BTC)期货开放兴趣的记录,提出了有关看跌头寸是否处于危险中的问题。
The aggregate open interest in Bitcoin (BTC) futures soared to a record high of $72 billion on May 20, converging with the cryptocurrency's persistent attempts to breach the $107,000 level.
5月20日,比特币(BTC)期货的总开放兴趣飙升至720亿美元的创纪录高度,与加密货币的持续尝试融合了违反107,000美元水平的持续尝试。
Despite repeated failures to break above the $107,000 mark since May 18, the sheer volume of leveraged positions could propel Bitcoin to a new all-time high.
尽管自5月18日以来反复出现的失败率超过了107,000美元的大关,但杠杆率的巨大量可能会使比特币达到新的历史最高水平。
Bitcoin futures open interest
比特币期货开放兴趣
The total open interest in BTC futures rose to $72 billion on May 20, showcasing a 8% increase from $66.6 billion just a week earlier.
5月20日,BTC期货的总开放利息增至720亿美元,从一周前的666亿美元增长了8%。
This institutional demand is being channeled largely through the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), where open interest in BTC futures reached $16.9 billion.
这一机构需求主要通过芝加哥商业交易所(CME)传达,在那里,对BTC期货的开放兴趣达到169亿美元。
Coming in second is Binance, which holds $12 billion in open interest, while smaller exchanges like FTX and Huobi contribute to the remaining open interest in BTC futures.
仅次于Binance,该公司持有120亿美元的开放利息,而FTX和Huobi等较小的交易所为BTC期货的剩余开放利息做出了贡献。
$1.2 billion in shorts at risk of liquidation
12亿美元的短裤,有清算风险
According to CoinGlass estimates, the largest concentration of bearish BTC futures liquidations is clustered between $107,000 and $108,000.
根据Coinglass的估计,看跌BTC期货清算的最大浓度集群在107,000美元至108,000美元之间。
The liquidations at those price levels add up to approximately $1.2 billion.
这些价格水平的清算总计约为12亿美元。
The price of BTC dropped to as low as $106,600 on May 19 before rebounding to $107,300 at the time of writing.
5月19日,BTC的价格下跌至5月19日至106,600美元,然后在撰写本文时篮板至107,300美元。
It remains unclear what could spark a breakout above $108,000 to force those leveraged shorts to unwind, but there is growing optimism tied to rising concerns over United States fiscal debt.
目前尚不清楚什么可能引发108,000美元以上的突破,以迫使那些杠杆短裤放松身心,但是随着对美国财政债务的不断担忧的不断增长而越来越乐观。
Uncertainty remains about how the government plans to achieve economic growth while reducing spending, especially in light of ongoing disagreement between Democratic and Republican lawmakers.
关于政府计划如何在减少支出的同时计划实现经济增长的不确定性,尤其是鉴于民主党和共和党立法者之间的持续分歧。
More importantly, yields on the 20-year US Treasury remain close to 5%, up from 4.82% two weeks earlier.
更重要的是,美国20年的美国财政部的收益率接近5%,高于两周前的4.82%。
Weak demand for long-term government debt may compel the US Federal Reserve to step in as the buyer of last resort to maintain market stability, reversing a 26-month trend. This approach puts downward pressure on the US dollar and drives investors to seek alternative hedging strategies, including Bitcoin.
对长期政府债务的需求疲软可能会迫使美国美联储成为Last Resort的买方,以维持市场稳定,从而扭转了26个月的趋势。这种方法给美元施加了向下压力,并促使投资者寻求包括比特币在内的替代套期保值策略。
Gold dominates, but Bitcoin absorbs flow amid reserve reallocations
黄金占主导
Gold remains the dominant alternative asset, but its 24% year-to-date gains in 2025 and $22 trillion market capitalization make it less attractive to many investors.
黄金仍然是主要的替代资产,但其在2025年毕业24%,市值为22万亿美元,使其对许多投资者的吸引力降低。
For context, the entire S&P 500 index is valued at $53 trillion, while US bank deposits and Treasury bills (M1) amount to $18.6 trillion. In contrast, Bitcoin currently represents a $2.1 trillion asset class, roughly equivalent in size to silver.
在上下文中,整个标准普尔500指数的价值为53万亿美元,而美国银行存款和国库账单(M1)为18.6万亿美元。相比之下,比特币目前代表了2.1万亿美元的资产类别,大小相当于银。
Meanwhile, some regions, notably the US, have begun laying the groundwork to shift portions of their gold reserves into Bitcoin—an action that could easily propel BTC to a new all-time high.
同时,某些地区,特别是美国,已经开始为将其黄金储量的部分转移到比特币中,这一行动很容易将BTC推向新的历史最高水平。
A modest 5% reallocation from gold into Bitcoin by those nations would translate into a $105 billion inflow, equivalent to 1 million BTC at a price of $105,000.
这些国家从黄金到比特币的5%重新分配将转化为1050亿美元的流入,相当于100万BTC,价格为105,000美元。
For perspective, Strategy, the US-listed firm led by Michael Saylor, currently holds 576,230 BTC.
从角度来看,战略是由迈克尔·塞勒(Michael Saylor)领导的美国上市公司,目前拥有576,230 BTC。
There is little doubt that institutional buying remains the primary catalyst for Bitcoin to break above the $108,000 level. Such a move would trigger the liquidation of heavily leveraged bearish positions, likely accelerating the push to a new all-time high. However, persistent macroeconomic uncertainty continues to weigh on overall investor sentiment.
毫无疑问,机构购买仍然是比特币超过108,000美元水平的主要催化剂。这样的举动会触发严重杠杆的看跌位置的清算,这可能会加速推动新的历史最高水平。但是,持续的宏观经济不确定性继续对整体投资者情绪加重。
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