比特幣開放興趣delta轉向看跌

Alphractal的創始人兼首席執行官Joao Wedson兼CQ驗證的作者在CryptoQuant上曾在比特幣的近期前景上提出了一個警示的旗幟。

A popular crypto analyst is warning that the outlook for Bitcoin (BTC) may be bearish in the near term unless a key indicator shows signs of improving.

一位受歡迎的加密分析師警告說，除非關鍵指標顯示出改善的跡象，否則比特幣的前景（BTC）在短期內可能是看跌。

Here's What Is Being Analyzed

這是正在分析的

Joao Wedson, Founder & CEO of Alphractal and a CQ Verified Author at CryptoQuant, provides an update on Bitcoin’s price outlook.

Alphractal的創始人兼首席執行官Joao Wedson，CryptoQuant的CQ驗證作者，提供了比特幣價格前景的更新。

According to him, both the 7-day and 30-day Open Interest Delta metrics are showing signs of weakness.

據他說，7天和30天的開放興趣三角洲指標都表現出虛弱的跡象。

“The 7-day Open Interest Delta is negative, and the 30-day Delta has stopped rising, which is an early warning for traders who are expecting to see higher prices in the upcoming period.

“為期7天的開放利息三角洲是負數的，而30天的三角洲已經停止上升，這是預期在即將到來的時期價格上漲的交易者的預警。

The Open Interest Delta measures the change in total open positions (contracts) in futures markets over a specific time period. When it’s positive, it generally indicates increasing speculative activity—especially when paired with rising prices. It's also used to assess the relative strength of buyers and sellers in the market.

開放利息三角洲在特定時間段內衡量期貨市場中期貨市場的總開放頭寸（合同）的變化。當它是積極的時，通常表明投機活動的增加，尤其是與價格上漲相結合時。它也用於評估市場上買賣雙方的相對優勢。

Chart Breakdown

圖表分解

The chart in Wedson’s post is split into two panels:

韋德森帖子中的圖表分為兩個面板：

The top panel focuses on the 7-day Open Interest Delta (blue line), highlighting its recent downturn after reaching a high in mid-August. This signals that the buying momentum from leveraged market participants has been decreasing, which could put pressure on the crypto to move lower.

頂級面板專注於7天的開放興趣三角洲（Blue Line），重點介紹了它在8月中旬達到最高水平後最近的經濟衰退。這表明從槓桿市場參與者的購買勢頭一直在減少，這可能會給加密貨幣帶來壓力下降。

The bottom panel displays the 30-day Open Interest Delta (red line), showcasing that it has stalled after a sustained rally from June to July. This suggests a more long-term view of the market trends.

底部面板顯示了30天的開放興趣三角洲（紅線），展示了它在6月至7月的持續集會後停滯不前。這表明對市場趨勢有更長遠的看法。

Both panels overlay the BTC price (black line), illustrating a clear correlation between rising Deltas and upward price moves. When those Deltas fade, the price often stalls or corrects shortly after.

這兩個面板都覆蓋了BTC價格（黑線），說明了增長三角洲和向上價格移動之間的明顯相關性。當這些三角洲逐漸消失時，價格通常會在不久之後停止或糾正。

What's Next

接下來是什麼

Wedson concludes his message with a stark caution:

韋德森（Wedson）謹慎地結束了他的信息：

“Whales need to show more enthusiasm for us to see higher prices, otherwise, there’s a strong chance of another rug pull. ”

“鯨魚需要向我們表現出更多的熱情，讓我們看到更高的價格，否則，有強烈的地毯的機會很大。”

This implies that institutional or large holder participation is crucial for Bitcoin to maintain or grow its current levels. Without it, the market may be vulnerable to sharp corrections—especially if over-leveraged retail traders begin to unwind.

這意味著機構或大型持有人的參與對於比特幣維持或增加其當前水平至關重要。沒有它，市場可能很容易受到敏銳的修正，尤其是如果槓桿化過多的零售商人開始放鬆。

This analysis is in response to recent reports that suggest Bitcoin's strength could mark a turning point for equities.

該分析是對最近的報告的回應，該報告表明比特幣的強度可能標誌著股票的轉折點。