比特币开放兴趣delta转向看跌

Alphractal的创始人兼首席执行官Joao Wedson兼CQ验证的作者在CryptoQuant上曾在比特币的近期前景上提出了一个警示的旗帜。

A popular crypto analyst is warning that the outlook for Bitcoin (BTC) may be bearish in the near term unless a key indicator shows signs of improving.

一位受欢迎的加密分析师警告说，除非关键指标显示出改善的迹象，否则比特币的前景（BTC）在短期内可能是看跌。

Here's What Is Being Analyzed

这是正在分析的

Joao Wedson, Founder & CEO of Alphractal and a CQ Verified Author at CryptoQuant, provides an update on Bitcoin’s price outlook.

Alphractal的创始人兼首席执行官Joao Wedson，CryptoQuant的CQ验证作者，提供了比特币价格前景的更新。

According to him, both the 7-day and 30-day Open Interest Delta metrics are showing signs of weakness.

据他说，7天和30天的开放兴趣三角洲指标都表现出虚弱的迹象。

“The 7-day Open Interest Delta is negative, and the 30-day Delta has stopped rising, which is an early warning for traders who are expecting to see higher prices in the upcoming period.

“为期7天的开放利息三角洲是负数的，而30天的三角洲已经停止上升，这是预期在即将到来的时期价格上涨的交易者的预警。

The Open Interest Delta measures the change in total open positions (contracts) in futures markets over a specific time period. When it’s positive, it generally indicates increasing speculative activity—especially when paired with rising prices. It's also used to assess the relative strength of buyers and sellers in the market.

开放利息三角洲在特定时间段内衡量期货市场中期货市场的总开放头寸（合同）的变化。当它是积极的时，通常表明投机活动的增加，尤其是与价格上涨相结合时。它也用于评估市场上买卖双方的相对优势。

Chart Breakdown

图表分解

The chart in Wedson’s post is split into two panels:

韦德森帖子中的图表分为两个面板：

The top panel focuses on the 7-day Open Interest Delta (blue line), highlighting its recent downturn after reaching a high in mid-August. This signals that the buying momentum from leveraged market participants has been decreasing, which could put pressure on the crypto to move lower.

顶级面板专注于7天的开放兴趣三角洲（Blue Line），重点介绍了它在8月中旬达到最高水平后最近的经济衰退。这表明从杠杆市场参与者的购买势头一直在减少，这可能会给加密货币带来压力下降。

The bottom panel displays the 30-day Open Interest Delta (red line), showcasing that it has stalled after a sustained rally from June to July. This suggests a more long-term view of the market trends.

底部面板显示了30天的开放兴趣三角洲（红线），展示了它在6月至7月的持续集会后停滞不前。这表明对市场趋势有更长远的看法。

Both panels overlay the BTC price (black line), illustrating a clear correlation between rising Deltas and upward price moves. When those Deltas fade, the price often stalls or corrects shortly after.

这两个面板都覆盖了BTC价格（黑线），说明了增长三角洲和向上价格移动之间的明显相关性。当这些三角洲逐渐消失时，价格通常会在不久之后停止或纠正。

What's Next

接下来是什么

Wedson concludes his message with a stark caution:

韦德森（Wedson）谨慎地结束了他的信息：

“Whales need to show more enthusiasm for us to see higher prices, otherwise, there’s a strong chance of another rug pull. ”

“鲸鱼需要向我们表现出更多的热情，让我们看到更高的价格，否则，有强烈的地毯的机会很大。”

This implies that institutional or large holder participation is crucial for Bitcoin to maintain or grow its current levels. Without it, the market may be vulnerable to sharp corrections—especially if over-leveraged retail traders begin to unwind.

这意味着机构或大型持有人的参与对于比特币维持或增加其当前水平至关重要。没有它，市场可能很容易受到敏锐的修正，尤其是如果杠杆化过多的零售商人开始放松。

This analysis is in response to recent reports that suggest Bitcoin's strength could mark a turning point for equities.

该分析是对最近的报告的回应，该报告表明比特币的强度可能标志着股票的转折点。