Bitcoin Open Interest Delta Turns Bearish

Joao Wedson, Founder & CEO of Alphractal and a CQ Verified Author on CryptoQuant, has raised a cautionary flag on Bitcoin's near-term outlook.

A popular crypto analyst is warning that the outlook for Bitcoin (BTC) may be bearish in the near term unless a key indicator shows signs of improving.

Here's What Is Being Analyzed

Joao Wedson, Founder & CEO of Alphractal and a CQ Verified Author at CryptoQuant, provides an update on Bitcoin’s price outlook.

According to him, both the 7-day and 30-day Open Interest Delta metrics are showing signs of weakness.

“The 7-day Open Interest Delta is negative, and the 30-day Delta has stopped rising, which is an early warning for traders who are expecting to see higher prices in the upcoming period.

The Open Interest Delta measures the change in total open positions (contracts) in futures markets over a specific time period. When it’s positive, it generally indicates increasing speculative activity—especially when paired with rising prices. It's also used to assess the relative strength of buyers and sellers in the market.

Chart Breakdown

The chart in Wedson’s post is split into two panels:

The top panel focuses on the 7-day Open Interest Delta (blue line), highlighting its recent downturn after reaching a high in mid-August. This signals that the buying momentum from leveraged market participants has been decreasing, which could put pressure on the crypto to move lower.

The bottom panel displays the 30-day Open Interest Delta (red line), showcasing that it has stalled after a sustained rally from June to July. This suggests a more long-term view of the market trends.

Both panels overlay the BTC price (black line), illustrating a clear correlation between rising Deltas and upward price moves. When those Deltas fade, the price often stalls or corrects shortly after.

What's Next

Wedson concludes his message with a stark caution:

“Whales need to show more enthusiasm for us to see higher prices, otherwise, there’s a strong chance of another rug pull. ”

This implies that institutional or large holder participation is crucial for Bitcoin to maintain or grow its current levels. Without it, the market may be vulnerable to sharp corrections—especially if over-leveraged retail traders begin to unwind.

This analysis is in response to recent reports that suggest Bitcoin's strength could mark a turning point for equities.