比特幣（BTC）在明天的高風險FOMC會議之前，將比特幣（BTC）緊貼$ 94,350

CME FedWatch工具顯示出98.2％的利率概率保持不變，而技術指標則表明潛在的10萬美元突破性論文。

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $94,350 as it tries to stay afloat ahead of tomorrow’s high-stakes FOMC meeting.

比特幣（BTC）的交易價格為94,350美元，因為它試圖在明天的高風險FOMC會議之前保持漂浮。

The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 98.2% probability of rates remaining unchanged, but traders are bracing for wild price swings as the Fed balances stubborn inflation with White House pressure for rate cuts.

CME FedWatch工具顯示，由於美聯儲平衡固執的通貨膨脹與白宮的壓力減少稅率，交易者的費率可能保持不變，但交易者的利率概率保持在98.2％。

The technical picture also suggests a potential $100K breakout thesis, which could come into play if sellers fail to follow through on recent attempts to push the price lower.

技術圖片還表明，如果賣家未能遵循最近的嘗試以降低價格的嘗試，則可能會發揮10萬美元的突破性論文。

Trump’s Tariffs & Comments Show Increasing Urgency For Rate Cuts

特朗普的關稅和評論表明，削減稅率的緊迫性

The White House has been increasingly vocal about the need for rate cuts, specifically tying the request to the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy.

白宮越來越多地宣告需要削減稅率，特別是將關稅對美國經濟的影響綁定。

However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell remains unconvinced and has stuck to his “wait-and-see” stance, preferring to see clear signs of economic deterioration before making any rash decisions.

但是，美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）仍然不相信，並堅持他的“拭目以待”的立場，寧願在做出任何輕率決定之前看到明顯的經濟惡化跡象。

“Powell won’t cut rates based on economic forecasts alone. The Fed needs to see actual deterioration in employment data before making its move,” notes a former high-ranking Fed official who worked alongside him.

“鮑威爾不會僅僅基於經濟預測來降低費率。美聯儲在採取行動之前就需要在就業數據中進行實際惡化，”一位與他一起工作的前高級美聯儲官員指出。

Despite the tension between political desires and economic reality, the Fed Watch Tool currently shows overwhelming consensus (98.2% probability) that rates will remain unchanged at 425-450 basis points tomorrow. This shows that Powell is ready to wait it out. It also highlights the disconnect between market expectations and political pressures.

儘管政治願望與經濟現實之間有緊張的張力，但美聯儲手錶工具目前表現出了壓倒性的共識（98.2％的概率），即明天的利率將保持在425-450的基點。這表明鮑威爾已準備好等待它。它還突出了市場期望與政治壓力之間的脫節。

On the other hand, stubborn inflation data continues to complicate the Fed’s decision-making process, which will be a key topic to observe in the FOMC meeting on May 7.

另一方面，頑固的通貨膨脹數據繼續使美聯儲的決策過程變得複雜，這將是5月7日的FOMC會議中要觀察的關鍵主題。

The Chart Shows Treasury Buybacks & Rising Probability Of Recession

該圖顯示了財政部回購和經濟衰退的可能性上升

In a significant yet underreported development, the Fed announced a $5 billion monthly Treasury buyback program that effectively maintains its position as a net buyer. This technical adjustment is helping to cap long-end yields even as short-term rates edge higher, creating a complex yield curve dynamic that Bitcoin traders are still coming to terms with.

在一項重大尚未報告的開發項目中，美聯儲宣布了一項每月50億美元的財政回購計劃，有效地保持了其作為淨買家的地位。即使短期利率更高，這種技術調整也有助於限制長端收益率，從而創造了比特幣交易者仍在達到的複雜產量曲線動態。

The economic outlook remains precarious. Recession probability models now show a 57% chance of economic contraction in 2025 – better than last week’s 63% reading, but still alarmingly high. This uncertainty, coupled with potential tariff impacts from the Trump administration, creates a challenging backdrop for risk assets like Bitcoin.

經濟前景仍然不穩定。衰退概率模型現在顯示2025年經濟收縮的機會有57％ - 比上週的63％的閱讀量要好得多，但仍然令人震驚。這種不確定性，加上特朗普政府的潛在關稅影響，為像比特幣這樣的風險資產帶來了挑戰性的背景。

The Final Make-Or-Break Level For Bitcoin

比特幣的最終製成水平

Ideally, investors should wait for clear confirmation of support formation – specifically, the formation of a series of higher lows and increasing buy volume near the $93k threshold or a huge spike in selling volume without a price follow-through.

理想情況下，投資者應等待明確確認支持形成 - 特別是，一系列更高的低點的形成，並增加了93,000美元門檻的買入量，或者在銷售銷售銷售量的銷售量巨大而無需以下價格的情況下。

If Bitcoin can’t hold $93,000, it will most likely slide lower to test the next value area between $81k to $88.4k. Here, Bitcoin consolidated throughout March 2025 and early April 2025. This zone could provide exceptional buying opportunities, hinting at a bullish Bitcoin price forecast for those patient enough to wait for them.

如果比特幣無法持有$ 93,000，那麼測試下一個價值區域的$ 81K至88.4K的測試很可能會降低。在這裡，比特幣整個2025年3月和2025年4月上旬都合併了。該區域可以提供出色的購買機會，暗示對那些足夠多的患者等待他們的看漲比特幣價格預測。

Several Critical Flashpoints Ahead Of Tomorrow’s FOMC & Interest Rate Decision

明天的FOMC和利率決定之前的幾個關鍵閃點

As traders prepare for tomorrow’s announcement, several key variables will determine Bitcoin’s next major move:

隨著交易者為明天的公告做準備，幾個關鍵變量將決定比特幣的下一個主要舉措：

To conclude, the convergence of these technical and macroeconomic factors creates a perfect environment for heightened volatility that could potentially propel Bitcoin price higher or lead to steep corrections. Either way, traders need to be prepared for an opportunity.

總而言之，這些技術和宏觀經濟因素的融合為提高波動率創造了一個理想的環境，可能會推動比特幣價格上漲或導致陡峭的校正。無論哪種方式，交易者都需要為機會做好準備。

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

常見問題（常見問題解答）

1. What is the current situation with Bitcoin's price?

1。比特幣價格的當前情況如何？

2. What are the expectations for the Fed's interest rate decision?

2。對美聯儲利率決定的期望是什麼？

3. What are the key price levels to watch for Bitcoin?

3。要注意比特幣的關鍵價格水平是多少？