New Bitcoin Cycle Top Model Suggests Key Dates Ahead

A new market timing model may help pinpoint the next Bitcoin cycle top, according to crypto analyst EGRAG CRYPTO.

A crypto analyst known as EGRAG CRYPTO has developed a market timing model that he believes could help determine the peak of the next Bitcoin (BTC) cycle.

Inspired by analyst Benjamin Cowen, the model links Bitcoin’s previous all-time highs (ATHs) with the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) to predict macro turning points.

The concept focuses on the intersection of the 200-week SMA with historical ATH levels. EGRAG observes that across several cycles, these intersections closely coincide with Bitcoin’s macro tops.

“We can see on the chart how the 200-week MA meets the previous ATHs and marks the top of the cycle in 2011, 2013, 2019, and 2021,” the analyst says.

Pattern Repeats Across Multiple BTC Cycles

Next Cycle Top? Two Dates Stand Out

Projecting the 200-week SMA forward suggests two possibilities for a Bitcoin cycle top, both holding geometrical significance:

• March 2025: A continuation of the pattern from previous cycles.

• October 2025: Reaches the Fibonacci 1.618 level from the 2011 ATH.

EGRAG cautions that using long-term averages in volatile markets is tricky, but the historical alignment of this pattern is noteworthy.

“We all know that using long-term moving averages in such a volatile market is not an easy task and can be quite tricky, but the correlation is still interesting to observe,” he adds.

Just a Framework, Not a Forecast

EGRAG clarifies that these are projections, not predictions. “Take it or leave it,” he says, noting that only time will reveal the true outcome. However, this model provides a unique perspective on Bitcoin cycle timing and adds another layer to discussions about the next top.