新的比特币循环顶部模型建议未来的关键日期

据加密分析师Egrag Crypto称，新的市场时机模型可能有助于查明下一个比特币周期顶部。

A crypto analyst known as EGRAG CRYPTO has developed a market timing model that he believes could help determine the peak of the next Bitcoin (BTC) cycle.

一位名为Egrag Crypto的加密分析师已经开发了一种市场时机模型，他认为可以帮助确定下一个比特币（BTC）周期的峰值。

Inspired by analyst Benjamin Cowen, the model links Bitcoin’s previous all-time highs (ATHs) with the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) to predict macro turning points.

受分析师本杰明·考恩（Benjamin Cowen）的启发，该模型将比特币以前的历史高点（ATHS）与200周的简单移动平均线（SMA）联系起来，以预测宏观转折点。

The concept focuses on the intersection of the 200-week SMA with historical ATH levels. EGRAG observes that across several cycles, these intersections closely coincide with Bitcoin’s macro tops.

该概念侧重于200周SMA与历史ATH层的交集。 Egrag观察到，在几个周期中，这些交叉路口与比特币的宏观顶部紧密相吻合。

“We can see on the chart how the 200-week MA meets the previous ATHs and marks the top of the cycle in 2011, 2013, 2019, and 2021,” the analyst says.

这位分析师说：“我们可以在图表上看到200周的MA如何与以前的ATH符合以前的ATH，并标志着2011、2013、2019和2021年周期的顶部。”

Pattern Repeats Across Multiple BTC Cycles

模式在多个BTC周期中重复

Next Cycle Top? Two Dates Stand Out

下一个周期顶？两个日期脱颖而出

Projecting the 200-week SMA forward suggests two possibilities for a Bitcoin cycle top, both holding geometrical significance:

预测200周的SMA前锋表明了比特币周期顶部的两种可能性，两者都具有几何意义：

• March 2025: A continuation of the pattern from previous cycles.

•2025年3月：以前周期的模式延续。

• October 2025: Reaches the Fibonacci 1.618 level from the 2011 ATH.

•2025年10月：从2011年ATH到达斐波那契1.618。

EGRAG cautions that using long-term averages in volatile markets is tricky, but the historical alignment of this pattern is noteworthy.

Egrag警告说，在挥发性市场中使用长期平均值是棘手的，但是这种模式的历史一致性值得注意。

“We all know that using long-term moving averages in such a volatile market is not an easy task and can be quite tricky, but the correlation is still interesting to observe,” he adds.

他补充说：“我们都知道，在如此动荡的市场中使用长期移动平均值并不是一件容易的事，而且可能非常棘手，但是相关性仍然很有趣。”

Just a Framework, Not a Forecast

只是一个框架，而不是预测

EGRAG clarifies that these are projections, not predictions. “Take it or leave it,” he says, noting that only time will reveal the true outcome. However, this model provides a unique perspective on Bitcoin cycle timing and adds another layer to discussions about the next top.

Egrag阐明这些是预测，而不是预测。他说：“拿走或离开它。”他指出，只有时间才能揭示真正的结果。但是，该模型为比特币周期时机提供了独特的观点，并在讨论下一个顶部的讨论中增加了另一层。