比特幣週期頂部以及 104,000 美元後 BTC 的走向

Bitcoin price crossed the $100,000 milestone on Wednesday, hitting a new all-time high at $104,088 on December 5. As BTC price rallied to a new high, traders shifted their focus to altcoins, seeking higher returns.

週三，比特幣價格突破 10 萬美元里程碑，並於 12 月 5 日創下歷史新高，達到 104,088 美元。

Crypto traders’ enthusiasm was rewarded with significant capital inflows to Spot Bitcoin ETFs and an increase in BTC options trade volume. However, as Bitcoin price rallied, altcoins also saw a surge in buying interest.

加密貨幣交易者的熱情得到了大量資本流入現貨比特幣 ETF 和比特幣選擇權交易量增加的回報。然而，隨著比特幣價格上漲，山寨幣的購買興趣也激增。

According to data from Coinglass, over $135 million in shorts were liquidated in the past 24 hours. Bitcoin’s rally to $104,000 has added nearly 12% in open interest and 125% in options trading volume.

根據 Coinglass 的數據，在過去 24 小時內清算了超過 1.35 億美元的空頭。比特幣漲至 104,000 美元，未平倉合約增加了近 12%，選擇權交易量增加了 125%。

Traders are rotating capital to altcoins, XRP and Solana (SOL) based meme coins and artificial intelligence tokens. XRP attempts to dethrone USD Tether (USDT) as the third largest cryptocurrency.

交易者正在將資金轉向山寨幣、XRP 和基於 Solana (SOL) 的迷因幣和人工智慧代幣。 XRP 試圖取代 USD Tether（USDT）成為第三大加密貨幣。

With Bitcoin dominance rising and XRP ranking third, traders are rotating capital into altcoins. After Bitcoin price rallied to $100,000, traders shifted their focus to altcoins, expecting higher returns.

隨著比特幣主導地位的上升和 XRP 排名第三，交易者正在將資金轉向山寨幣。比特幣價格上漲至 10 萬美元後，交易者將注意力轉向山寨幣，期望獲得更高的回報。

However, capital rotation is likely as altcoin season is in play, and traders should be watching for the top cycle for altcoins this season.

然而，隨著山寨幣季節的到來，資本可能會輪換，交易者應該關注本季山寨幣的最高週期。

According to Blockchain.centre’s altcoin season index, alts could continue outperforming BTC, as they did in the past 90 days. The index helps identify whether the altcoins in the top 100 cryptocurrencies ranked by market cap are yielding gains or lagging behind when compared to Bitcoin.

根據 Blockchain.centre 的山寨幣季節指數，山寨幣的表現可能會繼續優於 BTC，就像過去 90 天一樣。該指數有助於確定市值排名前 100 名的加密貨幣中的山寨幣與比特幣相比是否正在產生收益或落後。

While most altcoins in the top 50 rallied alongside Bitcoin this week, the top five tokens to watch are Render, Sui, Pepe, Hyperliquid and Ondo.

雖然本週前 50 名中的大多數山寨幣與比特幣一起上漲，但值得關注的前 5 名代幣是 Render、Sui、Pepe、Hyperliquid 和 Ondo。

Render rallied close to its March 2024 peak at $11.7613. A 35% rally from the current price could push RNDR to test resistance at $13.6330.

Render 價格上漲至接近 2024 年 3 月的最高峰 11.7613 美元。從目前價格上漲 35% 可能會推動 RNDR 測試阻力位 13.6330 美元。

Technical indicators, relative strength index and moving average convergence/ divergence support the thesis of price gain in RNDR. The 161.80% Fibonacci retracement of RNDR’s rally sets $16.9517 as the cycle top and price discovery target this cycle.

技術指標、相對強弱指數和移動平均收斂/發散支持 RNDR 價格上漲的論點。 RNDR 反彈的 161.80% 斐波那契回檔位將 16.9517 美元設定為本週期的週期頂部和價格發現目標。

SUI is nearly 20% away from its psychologically important $5 target. Sui token trades at $4.1588 on December 5, rallying alongside Bitcoin. RSI has crossed above 70, typically this would generate a sell-signal for traders however MACD could see a crossover of the MACD line above the signal line, a bullish sign for SUI.

SUI 距離 5 美元的重要心理目標還有近 20%。 12 月 5 日，Sui 代幣交易價格為 4.1588 美元，與比特幣一起上漲。 RSI 已突破 70，通常這會為交易者產生賣出訊號，但 MACD 可能會看到 MACD 線交叉到訊號線上方，這是 SUI 的看漲訊號。

PEPE is gearing to test its November 2024 peak of $0.00002597, nearly 17% above the current price level. RSI is sloping upwards and under the 70 level, meaning PEPE is not in the overvalued zone yet. PEPE could enter price discovery once it breaks past its November peak, the $0.00003348 is the price discovery target for PEPE. The target coincides with the 141.40% Fibonacci retracement of the November price rally.

PEPE 正準備測試 2024 年 11 月的峰值 0.00002597 美元，較目前價格水準高出近 17%。 RSI 向上傾斜並低於 70 水平，這意味著 PEPE 尚未處於高估區域。一旦突破 11 月高點，PEPE 可能進入價格發現階段，0.00003348 美元是 PEPE 的價格發現目標。該目標與 11 月價格上漲的 141.40% 斐波那契回檔位一致。

HYPE hit a new all-time high at $0.12875 on Thursday. The token could rally to the psychologically important $0.15000 level, nearly 22% above the current price. A successful break of this level could bring the $0.17689 target into play, this represents the 141.40% Fibonacci retracement of HYPE’s rally to its new all-time high. Technical indicators support a thesis of gain in HYPE price.

HYPE 週四創下 0.12875 美元的歷史新高。該代幣可能會反彈至 0.15000 美元的心理重要水平，比當前價格高出近 22%。成功突破該水平可能會使 0.17689 美元的目標發揮作用，這代表 HYPE 反彈至歷史新高的 141.40% 斐波那契回撤位。技術指標支持 HYPE 價格上漲的論點。

ONDO trades at $1.74214 at the time of writing. The token is 12% away from its all-time high of $1.95063. RSI is sloping upward and shows that ONDO is currently overvalued at 86. While typically it is considered a sell signal for the token, MACD flashes green histogram bars above the neutral line, signaling underlying positive momentum in ONDO price.

截至撰寫本文時，ONDO 的交易價格為 1.74214 美元。該代幣距離歷史高點 1.95063 美元還有 12% 的差距。 RSI 向上傾斜，表明 ONDO 目前被高估為 86。

Ethereum is on an upward trend. The altcoin could target its previous all-time high at $4,878 if the altcoin sustains its upward momentum.

以太坊正處於上升趨勢。如果山寨幣維持其上漲勢頭，則其先前的歷史高點可能會達到 4,878 美元。

ETH price needs to break above the psychologically important $4,000 level to target the previous all-time high and enter price discovery this cycle. With upcoming ecosystem developments and higher utility and adoption with layer 2 and layer 3 chains, Ethereum gears for further gains.

ETH 價格需要突破 4,000 美元的重要心理關口，才能瞄準先前的歷史高點並進入本週期的價格發現。隨著即將到來的生態系統的發展以及第 2 層和第 3 層鏈的更高實用性和採用，以太坊準備獲得進一步的收益。

The RSI is sloping upwards, crossing

RSI 向上傾斜，交叉