比特幣和加密價格在本周升高，因為完美的風暴收集了風險資產

本週，比特幣和加密貨幣價格上漲，因為完美的風暴收集了風險資產。

The price of bitcoin (BTC) has risen above $100,000 per bitcoin after U.S. president Donald Trump signaled the U.S. may be open to lowering the massive tariffs it slapped on China at the beginning of April.

在美國總統唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）表示，比特幣（BTC）的價格上漲了每比特幣100,000美元，表示美國可能會在4月初降低中國拍打的大量關稅。

"80% tariff on China seems right," Trump posted to his Truth Social account Friday morning, adding it’s “up to” Treasury secretary Scott Bessent who will be in Geneva, Switzerland for the talks.

特朗普週五早上向他的真相社會帳戶發布了“中國的80％關稅似乎是正確的，”他補充說，這是“最高”財政部長Scott Bessent，他將在瑞士日內瓦進行會談。

"After carefully assessing the U.S. messages, China decided to agree to hold discussions," a spokesperson for the Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in the U.S. said earlier this week. “The talks are being held at the request of the U.S. side."

“經過仔細評估美國的信息，中國決定同意舉行討論，”美國中華人民共和國大使館在美國的大使館本週早些時候說。 “談判是應美國方面的要求進行的。”

The bitcoin price has surged past $100,000 per bitcoin, breaking back above the closely-watched level for the first time since February.

比特幣的價格已經飆升了每比特幣100,000美元，自2月以來首次重新獲得了觀看的水平。

"The market should be on alert that if neither side shows willingness to compromise, it could dampen the current risk-on mood and weigh on the bitcoin market heading into the weekend," said Yuya Hasegawa, crypto market analyst at Tokyo-based Bitbank, in an email Friday morning.

總部位於週末的Crypto市場分析師Yuya Hasegawa表示：“市場應保持警惕，如果雙方都表現出妥協的意願，它可能會抑制當前的風險心情，並在周末進入比特幣市場。”

"Sentiment got an additional lift from the prospect of this weekend's trade talks between the U.S. and China," added David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation, in emailed comments. "While it is understood that these are preliminary discussions, investors are hoping that these negotiations will prove constructive, and lead to a timely resumption in bilateral trade.

貿易國家高級市場分析師戴維·莫里森（David Morrison）在電子郵件的評論中補充說：“情感從本週末的美國和中國之間的貿易談判的前景額外提升。” “雖然據了解，這些是初步討論，但投資者希望這些談判能夠證明具有建設性，並導致雙邊貿易及時恢復。

"However, Morrison added, "there's a lot of good news already priced in. It's also the case that it takes time to reach trade agreements, and significant damage has already been done to global trade, with relations between the U.S. and China both frosty and uncertain. In other words, it wouldn't take much of a disappointment for investors to start reducing their exposure to equities."

“但是，莫里森補充說：“已經有很多好消息。也需要花費一些時間達成貿易協定，並且已經對全球貿易造成了重大損害，美國和中國之間的關係既有霜凍又不確定。換句話說，投資者開始減少對股票的風險並不令人失望。 ”

U.S. trading partners could start dumping the massive stores of dollars and dollar-denominated assets they have accumulated since the Federal Reserve flooded the market through Covid-era lockdowns, analysts Stephen Jen, chief executive and co-chief investment officer at Eurizon SLJ Capital, and economist Joana Freire, warned in a Friday note.

自從美聯儲通過Covid-era Lockdowns淹沒了市場以來，美國貿易夥伴可以開始傾倒他們積累的大量美元商店，而Eurizon SLJ Capital兼經濟學人Joana Freire的分析師Stephen Jen在Covid-ersa Lockdowns中淹沒了市場。

Putting the number of at-risk dollars held by China, Taiwan, Malaysia, Vietnam and other major Asian exporters at $2.5 trillion, Jen and Freire add that the recent sudden spike in the value of the Taiwan dollar and other Asian currencies could be a prelude to a dollar sell-off.

Jen和Freire將中國，台灣，馬來西亞，越南和其他亞洲主要出口商持有的高風險美元數量達到2.5萬億美元，並補充說，最近的台灣美元和其他亞洲貨幣價值的突然峰值可能是對一美元賣出的序言。

"We continue to believe the risks of investors being blind-sided by such a non-linear sell-off in the dollar continue to rise," the pair wrote, in a note seen by MarketWatch. "There will be others, we predict, the overhang of liquid dollar holdings is just too large if the dollar weakens, the Fed cuts interest rates, and China stages a cyclical rebound."

兩人在MarketWatch看到的一份票據中寫道：“我們繼續相信投資者被這種非線性拋售以美元拋棄而盲目的風險繼續上升。” “我們預測，如果美元削弱，美聯儲降低利率並且中國進行週期性反彈，那麼將會有其他液體持有的液體持有量太大。”

The Fed, which kept rates on hold this week, is widely expected to begin cutting interest rates this summer after putting the loosening cycle begun in September on hold, with expectations growing for cuts totaling 75 basis points in 2025.

在本周保持利率持續的情況下，人們普遍將在今年夏天開始降低利率，此前9月開始放鬆週期後，預期削減的期望在2025年的削減量增長75個基點。

The stellar rally in the bitcoin price and the broader crypto market has also been fueled by a shift in macroeconomic thinking, with the potential for a rapid and large-scale selloff in the U.S. dollar now a key focus for investors.

比特幣價格和更廣泛的加密貨幣市場的出色集會也受到宏觀經濟思維的轉變的推動，並有可能以美元迅速而大規模的拋售來成為投資者的關鍵重點。

As the dollar price drops, so too does the value of the dollar-denominated assets held by U.S. trading partners, such as China, Taiwan, Malaysia, Vietnam and other major exporters—a loss that could be in the $2.5 trillion range as the central bank massively expanded the U.S. money supply during the Covid-19 pandemic, according to Jen and Freire.

隨著美元的價格下跌，美國貿易夥伴（例如中國，台灣，馬來西亞，越南和其他主要出口商）持有的美元計價資產的價值也是如此，這一損失可能達到2.5萬億美元的範圍，因為中央銀行在Covid-19 Pandemic中大量擴大了美國的貨幣供應。

"The implication is clear: A 75 basis-point reduction in the U.S. federal funds rate over 2025, or even a 50 basis-point reduction, could trigger a massive and rapid selloff in the dollar and U.S. assets," the analysts said, in a note titled "’Devaluation Is Coming’ to an Unprepared World.’"

分析師在一份標題為“貶低到未修復的世界中，”分析人士說：“這意味著很明顯：美國聯邦資金利率的75個基準降低，甚至可以降低50個基準點，可能會引發巨大而迅速的美元拋售，分析人士在標題為“貶值的情況下，”'

"The optimists would argue that the selloff in the dollar would benefit emerging-market (and other) assets, and we agree. But we fear that such a move could be messy, rapid and non-linear, in the same way that the dollar rally was in 2022."

“樂觀主義者會爭辯說，美元的拋售將受益於新興市場（和其他）資產，我們同意。但是我們擔心這樣的舉動可能是混亂，快速和非線性的，就像美元集會在2022年一樣。”

The pair also noted that the recent, rapid appreciation of the Taiwan dollar, the Malaysian ringgit and the Vietnamese dong, among other Asian currencies, may be a sign of the coming selloff in the dollar.

兩人還指出，最近對台灣美元，馬來西亞林吉特和越南董事的快速欣賞，以及其他亞洲貨幣，可能是即將拋售美元的跡象。

"The optimists would argue that the selloff in the dollar would benefit emerging-market (and other) assets, and we agree," the analysts said in a Friday note, as quoted

分析師在周五的票據中說：“樂觀主義者會爭辯說，美元的拋售將受益於新興市場（和其他）資產，我們同意。”