比特币和加密价格在本周升高，因为完美的风暴收集了风险资产

本周，比特币和加密货币价格上涨，因为完美的风暴收集了风险资产。

The price of bitcoin (BTC) has risen above $100,000 per bitcoin after U.S. president Donald Trump signaled the U.S. may be open to lowering the massive tariffs it slapped on China at the beginning of April.

在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）表示，比特币（BTC）的价格上涨了每比特币100,000美元，表示美国可能会在4月初降低中国拍打的大量关税。

"80% tariff on China seems right," Trump posted to his Truth Social account Friday morning, adding it’s “up to” Treasury secretary Scott Bessent who will be in Geneva, Switzerland for the talks.

特朗普周五早上向他的真相社会帐户发布了“中国的80％关税似乎是正确的，”他补充说，这是“最高”财政部长Scott Bessent，他将在瑞士日内瓦进行会谈。

"After carefully assessing the U.S. messages, China decided to agree to hold discussions," a spokesperson for the Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in the U.S. said earlier this week. “The talks are being held at the request of the U.S. side."

“经过仔细评估美国的信息，中国决定同意举行讨论，”美国中华人民共和国大使馆在美国的大使馆本周早些时候说。 “谈判是应美国方面的要求进行的。”

The bitcoin price has surged past $100,000 per bitcoin, breaking back above the closely-watched level for the first time since February.

比特币的价格已经飙升了每比特币100,000美元，自2月以来首次重新获得了观看的水平。

"The market should be on alert that if neither side shows willingness to compromise, it could dampen the current risk-on mood and weigh on the bitcoin market heading into the weekend," said Yuya Hasegawa, crypto market analyst at Tokyo-based Bitbank, in an email Friday morning.

总部位于周末的Crypto市场分析师Yuya Hasegawa表示：“市场应保持警惕，如果双方都表现出妥协的意愿，它可能会抑制当前的风险心情，并在周末进入比特币市场。”

"Sentiment got an additional lift from the prospect of this weekend's trade talks between the U.S. and China," added David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation, in emailed comments. "While it is understood that these are preliminary discussions, investors are hoping that these negotiations will prove constructive, and lead to a timely resumption in bilateral trade.

贸易国家高级市场分析师戴维·莫里森（David Morrison）在电子邮件的评论中补充说：“情感从本周末的美国和中国之间的贸易谈判的前景额外提升。” “虽然据了解，这些是初步讨论，但投资者希望这些谈判能够证明具有建设性，并导致双边贸易及时恢复。

"However, Morrison added, "there's a lot of good news already priced in. It's also the case that it takes time to reach trade agreements, and significant damage has already been done to global trade, with relations between the U.S. and China both frosty and uncertain. In other words, it wouldn't take much of a disappointment for investors to start reducing their exposure to equities."

“但是，莫里森补充说：“已经有很多好消息。也需要花费一些时间达成贸易协定，并且已经对全球贸易造成了重大损害，美国和中国之间的关系既有霜冻又不确定。换句话说，投资者开始减少对股票的风险并不令人失望。”

U.S. trading partners could start dumping the massive stores of dollars and dollar-denominated assets they have accumulated since the Federal Reserve flooded the market through Covid-era lockdowns, analysts Stephen Jen, chief executive and co-chief investment officer at Eurizon SLJ Capital, and economist Joana Freire, warned in a Friday note.

自从美联储通过Covid-era Lockdowns淹没了市场以来，美国贸易伙伴可以开始倾倒他们积累的大量美元商店，而Eurizon SLJ Capital兼经济学人Joana Freire的分析师Stephen Jen在Covid-ersa Lockdowns中淹没了市场。

Putting the number of at-risk dollars held by China, Taiwan, Malaysia, Vietnam and other major Asian exporters at $2.5 trillion, Jen and Freire add that the recent sudden spike in the value of the Taiwan dollar and other Asian currencies could be a prelude to a dollar sell-off.

Jen和Freire将中国，台湾，马来西亚，越南和其他亚洲主要出口商持有的高风险美元数量达到2.5万亿美元，并补充说，最近的台湾美元和其他亚洲货币价值的突然峰值可能是对一美元卖出的序言。

"We continue to believe the risks of investors being blind-sided by such a non-linear sell-off in the dollar continue to rise," the pair wrote, in a note seen by MarketWatch. "There will be others, we predict, the overhang of liquid dollar holdings is just too large if the dollar weakens, the Fed cuts interest rates, and China stages a cyclical rebound."

两人在MarketWatch看到的一份票据中写道：“我们继续相信投资者被这种非线性抛售以美元抛弃而盲目的风险继续上升。” “我们预测，如果美元削弱，美联储降低利率并且中国进行周期性反弹，那么将会有其他液体持有的液体持有量太大。”

The Fed, which kept rates on hold this week, is widely expected to begin cutting interest rates this summer after putting the loosening cycle begun in September on hold, with expectations growing for cuts totaling 75 basis points in 2025.

在本周保持利率持续的情况下，人们普遍将在今年夏天开始降低利率，此前9月开始放松周期后，预期削减的期望在2025年的削减量增长75个基点。

The stellar rally in the bitcoin price and the broader crypto market has also been fueled by a shift in macroeconomic thinking, with the potential for a rapid and large-scale selloff in the U.S. dollar now a key focus for investors.

比特币价格和更广泛的加密货币市场的出色集会也受到宏观经济思维的转变的推动，并有可能以美元迅速而大规模的抛售来成为投资者的关键重点。

As the dollar price drops, so too does the value of the dollar-denominated assets held by U.S. trading partners, such as China, Taiwan, Malaysia, Vietnam and other major exporters—a loss that could be in the $2.5 trillion range as the central bank massively expanded the U.S. money supply during the Covid-19 pandemic, according to Jen and Freire.

随着美元的价格下跌，美国贸易伙伴（例如中国，台湾，马来西亚，越南和其他主要出口商）持有的美元计价资产的价值也是如此，这一损失可能达到2.5万亿美元的范围，因为中央银行在Covid-19 Pandemic中大量扩大了美国的货币供应。

"The implication is clear: A 75 basis-point reduction in the U.S. federal funds rate over 2025, or even a 50 basis-point reduction, could trigger a massive and rapid selloff in the dollar and U.S. assets," the analysts said, in a note titled "’Devaluation Is Coming’ to an Unprepared World.’"

分析师在一份标题为“贬低到未修复的世界中，”分析人士说：“这意味着很明显：美国联邦资金利率的75个基准降低，甚至可以降低50个基准点，可能会引发巨大而迅速的美元抛售，分析人士在标题为“贬值的情况下，”'

"The optimists would argue that the selloff in the dollar would benefit emerging-market (and other) assets, and we agree. But we fear that such a move could be messy, rapid and non-linear, in the same way that the dollar rally was in 2022."

“乐观主义者会争辩说，美元的抛售将受益于新兴市场（和其他）资产，我们同意。但是我们担心这样的举动可能是混乱，快速和非线性的，就像美元集会在2022年一样。”

The pair also noted that the recent, rapid appreciation of the Taiwan dollar, the Malaysian ringgit and the Vietnamese dong, among other Asian currencies, may be a sign of the coming selloff in the dollar.

两人还指出，最近对台湾美元，马来西亚林吉特和越南董事的快速欣赏，以及其他亚洲货币，可能是即将抛售美元的迹象。

"The optimists would argue that the selloff in the dollar would benefit emerging-market (and other) assets, and we agree," the analysts said in a Friday note, as quoted

分析师在周五的票据中说：“乐观主义者会争辩说，美元的抛售将受益于新兴市场（和其他）资产，我们同意。”