在供應過多的壓力下，比特幣與美國股市的相關性崩潰

在近幾個月幾乎同步交易後，比特幣與飆升的美國股市的相關性在供應過多的壓力下正在崩潰

Bitcoin’s close tracking of surging US equities has faltered in recent months amid a wave of token sales by German and US authorities, as well as distributions from the bankrupt Mt. Gox exchange.

近幾個月來，由於德國和美國當局的一波代幣銷售浪潮以及破產的 Mt. Gox 交易所的分配，比特幣對美國股市飆升的密切追蹤已經動搖。

The 90-day-correlation coefficient of Bitcoin and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index dropped to 0.16 on Monday, the lowest level since early May. It has declined by more than 55% in the two months. A coefficient of 1 means the assets are moving in lockstep, while minus-1 would show they’re moving in opposite directions.

週一，比特幣與科技股為主的納斯達克 100 指數的 90 天相關係數降至 0.16，為 5 月初以來的最低水準。兩個月來跌幅超過55%。係數為 1 表示資產同步移動，而負 1 表示資產朝相反方向移動。

“Bitcoin is experiencing overhang from idiosyncratic supply events — including spot sales from seized coins held by the German and US governments and the distributions from the Mt. Gox estate,” said Joshua Lim, co-founder of trading firm Arbelos Markets. “This has put a cap on upside even while other risk assets trade at all-time highs.”

交易公司 Arbelos Markets 聯合創始人 Joshua Lim 表示：“比特幣正經歷著因特殊供應事件而出現的過剩問題，包括德國和美國政府扣押的比特幣的現貨銷售以及 Mt. Gox 莊園的分配。” “即使其他風險資產交易價格創歷史新高，這也限制了上漲空間。”

Bitcoin’sراجع النص الأصلي to close tracking of the Nasdaq began to unravel in June as German police started selling some of the 50,000 Bitcoin it had seized earlier from a piracy website. At the same time, Mt. Gox’s administrators started the process of returning about $8 billion worth of the token to creditors.

6 月份，隨著德國警方開始出售先前從盜版網站查獲的 50,000 枚比特幣，比特幣對納斯達克的密切關注開始瓦解。與此同時，Mt.Gox 的管理階層開始向債權人返還價值約 80 億美元的代幣。

“Excess token supply is expected to reach centralized exchanges in the next few days, likely putting pressure on prices,” said Manuel Villegas, Next Generation research analyst at Julius Baer. “The looming supply overhang has been the main factor affecting confidence.”

Julius Baer 下一代研究分析師 Manuel Villegas 表示：“過剩的代幣供應預計將在未來幾天內到達中心化交易所，這可能會給價格帶來壓力。” “迫在眉睫的供應過剩是影響信心的主要因素。”

Bitcoin miners, meanwhile, are also facing pressure to sell tokens to cope with evaporating profitability.

同時，比特幣礦商也面臨出售代幣以應對利潤蒸發的壓力。

The operators of the power-hungry computers that underpin the Bitcoin blockchain are continuing to absorb the financial hit of April’s so-called halving, which curbed the new tokens they receive for the work they do. One response from these Bitcoin miners is to sell some of their inventory of tokens.

支撐比特幣區塊鏈的耗電計算機的運營商正在繼續承受四月份所謂減半帶來的財務打擊，這限制了他們因工作而收到的新代幣。這些比特幣礦工的回應之一是出售部分代幣庫存。

“Bitcoin miners have a problem when prices drop, as their cost base is fiat-based; the average all-in-all cost of production for Bitcoin miners, according to our estimates, is close to $54,500,” Villegas said. “When prices drop significantly below this threshold, miners might need to liquidate some of their token inventories to cover their fiat-based costs.”

「當價格下跌時，比特幣礦工會遇到問題，因為他們的成本基礎是基於法定的；根據我們的估計，比特幣礦工的平均總生產成本接近 54,500 美元，」Villegas 說。 “當價格大幅跌破這一門檻時，礦商可能需要清算一些代幣庫存，以支付基於法定貨幣的成本。”

Bitcoin was trading flat on Monday at around $56,940, down about 23% from an all-time high of $73,798 reached in March.

週一，比特幣交易價格持平於 56,940 美元左右，較 3 月創下的歷史高點 73,798 美元下跌約 23%。