在供应过多的压力下，比特币与美国股市的相关性崩溃

在近几个月几乎同步交易后，比特币与飙升的美国股市的相关性在供应过多的压力下正在崩溃

Bitcoin’s close tracking of surging US equities has faltered in recent months amid a wave of token sales by German and US authorities, as well as distributions from the bankrupt Mt. Gox exchange.

近几个月来，由于德国和美国当局的一波代币销售浪潮以及破产的 Mt. Gox 交易所的分配，比特币对美国股市飙升的密切追踪已经出现动摇。

The 90-day-correlation coefficient of Bitcoin and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index dropped to 0.16 on Monday, the lowest level since early May. It has declined by more than 55% in the two months. A coefficient of 1 means the assets are moving in lockstep, while minus-1 would show they’re moving in opposite directions.

周一，比特币与科技股为主的纳斯达克 100 指数的 90 天相关系数降至 0.16，为 5 月初以来的最低水平。两个月来跌幅超过55%。系数为 1 表示资产同步移动，而负 1 表示资产朝相反方向移动。

“Bitcoin is experiencing overhang from idiosyncratic supply events — including spot sales from seized coins held by the German and US governments and the distributions from the Mt. Gox estate,” said Joshua Lim, co-founder of trading firm Arbelos Markets. “This has put a cap on upside even while other risk assets trade at all-time highs.”

交易公司 Arbelos Markets 联合创始人 Joshua Lim 表示：“比特币正经历着因特殊供应事件而出现的过剩问题，包括德国和美国政府扣押的比特币的现货销售以及 Mt. Gox 庄园的分配。” “即使其他风险资产交易价格创历史新高，这也限制了上涨空间。”

Bitcoin’sراجع النص الأصلي to close tracking of the Nasdaq began to unravel in June as German police started selling some of the 50,000 Bitcoin it had seized earlier from a piracy website. At the same time, Mt. Gox’s administrators started the process of returning about $8 billion worth of the token to creditors.

6 月份，随着德国警方开始出售之前从盗版网站查获的 50,000 枚比特币，比特币对纳斯达克的密切关注开始瓦解。与此同时，Mt.Gox 的管理人员开始向债权人返还价值约 80 亿美元的代币。

“Excess token supply is expected to reach centralized exchanges in the next few days, likely putting pressure on prices,” said Manuel Villegas, Next Generation research analyst at Julius Baer. “The looming supply overhang has been the main factor affecting confidence.”

Julius Baer 下一代研究分析师 Manuel Villegas 表示：“过剩的代币供应预计将在未来几天内到达中心化交易所，这可能会给价格带来压力。” “迫在眉睫的供应过剩是影响信心的主要因素。”

Bitcoin miners, meanwhile, are also facing pressure to sell tokens to cope with evaporating profitability.

与此同时，比特币矿商也面临着出售代币以应对利润蒸发的压力。

The operators of the power-hungry computers that underpin the Bitcoin blockchain are continuing to absorb the financial hit of April’s so-called halving, which curbed the new tokens they receive for the work they do. One response from these Bitcoin miners is to sell some of their inventory of tokens.

支撑比特币区块链的耗电计算机的运营商正在继续承受四月份所谓减半带来的财务打击，这限制了他们因工作而收到的新代币。这些比特币矿工的回应之一是出售部分代币库存。

“Bitcoin miners have a problem when prices drop, as their cost base is fiat-based; the average all-in-all cost of production for Bitcoin miners, according to our estimates, is close to $54,500,” Villegas said. “When prices drop significantly below this threshold, miners might need to liquidate some of their token inventories to cover their fiat-based costs.”

“当价格下跌时，比特币矿工会遇到问题，因为他们的成本基础是基于法定的；根据我们的估计，比特币矿工的平均总生产成本接近 54,500 美元，”Villegas 说。 “当价格大幅跌破这一阈值时，矿商可能需要清算一些代币库存，以支付基于法定货币的成本。”

Bitcoin was trading flat on Monday at around $56,940, down about 23% from an all-time high of $73,798 reached in March.

周一，比特币交易价格持平于 56,940 美元左右，较 3 月份创下的历史高点 73,798 美元下跌约 23%。