比特幣 (BTC) 交易價格為 57450 美元，比歷史高點 73835 美元低 22%

儘管最近價格走勢看跌，但分析師表示，普通比特幣投資者仍然「相對有利可圖」。

Bitcoin ( BTC ) investors are still largely in the green despite the recent price decline, which has left short-term holders, or those who have held BTC for less than 155 days, bearing the brunt of the market pressure.

儘管最近價格下跌，但比特幣 (BTC) 投資者仍基本上處於綠色狀態，這使得短期持有者或持有 BTC 不到 155 天的人首當其沖地承受著市場壓力。

Bitcoin trades at $57,450, 22% below its all-time high of $73,835, reached on March 14.

比特幣交易價格為 57,450 美元，比 3 月 14 日創下的歷史高點 73,835 美元低 22%。

According to market intelligence firm Glassnode, Bitcoin investor profitability data indicates that this remains a relatively shallow drawdown compared to historical bull cycles, suggesting that the aggregate investor remains in a relatively robust financial position.

據市場情報公司 Glassnode 稱，比特幣投資者獲利能力數據表明，與歷史牛市週期相比，這仍然是相對較淺的回撤，表明整體投資者仍處於相對穩健的財務狀況。

Taking the ratio between total unrealized profit and unrealized loss, Glassnode analysts found “that profits remain 6x larger than losses.” This ratio has maintained above the current value for about 20% of trading days, highlighting the robust financial position of the average Bitcoin investor.

Glassnode 分析師根據未實現利潤總額與未實現損失之間的比率發現，「利潤仍然是損失的 6 倍」。該比率在約 20% 的交易日內保持在當前價值之上，凸顯了普通比特幣投資者穩健的財務狀況。

“On average, BTC investors are holding relatively small unrealized losses compared to prior cycles, suggesting a relatively favorable position overall.”

“平均而言，與先前的周期相比，比特幣投資者持有的未實現損失相對較小，這表明總體情況相對有利。”

Bitcoin unrealized profit to unrealized loss ratio. Source: Glassnode

比特幣未實現利潤與未實現損失比率。來源：Glassnode

Meanwhile, the bull market seems to have taken a pause. Short-term holders (STHs) bear the brunt of the current market pressure as prices stay underwater.

與此同時，多頭市場似乎暫停了。由於價格處於水下狀態，短期持有者（STH）首當其沖地承受當前的市場壓力。

The STH cohort has experienced significant unrealized losses “with the magnitude consistently increasing over the last few months,” the report noted. However, when analyzing these losses relative to the market, Glassnode analysts found that they have not yet reached the full-scale bear market territory.

報告指出，STH 群體經歷了重大的未實現損失，「其幅度在過去幾個月中持續增加」。然而，在分析這些相對於市場的損失時，Glassnode 分析師發現，它們尚未達到全面的熊市區域。

The chart below shows that the STH market value realized value (MVRV) ratio has dropped below the break-even value of 1.0 and is trading at levels similar to August 2023, during the recovery rally after the FTX collapse.

下圖顯示，STH 市值變現值 (MVRV) 比率已跌至盈虧平衡值 1.0 以下，交易價格與 2023 年 8 月 FTX 崩盤後復甦反彈期間的水平相似。

“This tells us that the average new investor is holding an unrealized loss.”

“這告訴我們，新投資者平均持有未實現的損失。”

Bitcoin short-term holder MVRV. Source: Glassnode

比特幣短期持有者 MVRV。來源：Glassnode

The report also highlighted that all age bands within the STH cohort are currently holding unrealized losses.

該報告還強調，STH 群體中的所有年齡層目前都持有未實現的損失。

Bitcoin still 10% down post-halving amid record delay to all-time high

比特幣減半仍下跌 10%，創紀錄延遲創歷史新高

Bitcoin price needs to reclaim the STH cost basis

比特幣價格需要收回 STH 成本基礎

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows Bitcoin price trading at $57,450, 7% below the STH cost basis of $62,400.

Cointelegraph Markets Pro 和 TradingView 的數據顯示，比特幣交易價格為 57,450 美元，比 STH 成本基礎 62,400 美元低 7%。

Unless the spot price reclaims the STH cost basis, “there is an expectation for further market weakness,” Glassnode analysts warned. They added that the true market mean around the $51,000 demand zone remained a key area of interest that must be maintained for the bull market to continue.

Glassnode 分析師警告稱，除非現貨價格恢復 STH 成本基礎，否則「預計市場將進一步疲軟」。他們補充說，圍繞 51,000 美元需求區域的真實市場平均值仍然是一個關鍵的興趣區域，必須維持這一區域才能繼續牛市。

“In the event of a local downturn, the pricing level of $51k remains a critical area of interest that must be maintained for further price appreciation.”

“如果當地經濟低迷，5.1 萬美元的定價水平仍然是一個關鍵的關注領域，必須維持這一水平才能進一步升值。”

Bitcoin realized price true-market mean. Source: Glassnode

比特幣實現了真實市場平均值價格。來源：Glassnode

Managing director of Bitcoin Magazine Pro, Philip Swift, made similar observations, adding that Bitcoin’s spot price is currently “below the entry cost basis for many short-term investors.”

Bitcoin Magazine Pro 董事總經理 Philip Swift 也提出了類似的觀點，並補充說，比特幣的現貨價格目前「低於許多短期投資者的進入成本基礎」。

In a Sept. 3 newsletter, Swift explained that the current scenario mirrors the August and September price action in 2023 when the price spent close to 60 days below the STH realized value.

在 9 月 3 日的通訊中，Swift 解釋說，當前情況反映了 2023 年 8 月和 9 月的價格走勢，當時價格低於 STH 實現價值近 60 天。

“Until that changes and Bitcoin’s price moves back above this metric, there will be uncertainty in the market as short-term investors hold paper losses.”

“在這種情況發生變化並且比特幣價格回到這一指標之上之前，市場將存在不確定性，因為短期投資者持有賬面損失。”

Bitcoin STH realized price. Source: Bitcoin Magazine Pro

比特幣 STH 實現價格。資料來源：比特幣雜誌專業版

Swift added that for the bull run to continue, the price has to climb back above the STH cost basis, “which will help restore some much-needed confidence in the market.”

斯威夫特補充說，為了讓牛市繼續下去，價格必須回升至成本基礎之上，“這將有助於恢復市場急需的信心。”

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

本文不包含投資建議或建議。每一項投資和交易行為都涉及風險，讀者在做決定時應自行研究。