比特币 (BTC) 交易价格为 57450 美元，比历史高点 73835 美元低 22%

尽管最近价格走势看跌，但分析师表示，普通比特币投资者仍然“相对有利可图”。

Bitcoin ( BTC ) investors are still largely in the green despite the recent price decline, which has left short-term holders, or those who have held BTC for less than 155 days, bearing the brunt of the market pressure.

尽管最近价格下跌，但比特币 (BTC) 投资者仍基本处于绿色状态，这使得短期持有者或持有 BTC 不足 155 天的人首当其冲地承受着市场压力。

Bitcoin trades at $57,450, 22% below its all-time high of $73,835, reached on March 14.

比特币交易价格为 57,450 美元，比 3 月 14 日创下的历史高点 73,835 美元低 22%。

According to market intelligence firm Glassnode, Bitcoin investor profitability data indicates that this remains a relatively shallow drawdown compared to historical bull cycles, suggesting that the aggregate investor remains in a relatively robust financial position.

据市场情报公司 Glassnode 称，比特币投资者盈利能力数据表明，与历史牛市周期相比，这仍然是相对较浅的回撤，表明总体投资者仍处于相对稳健的财务状况。

Taking the ratio between total unrealized profit and unrealized loss, Glassnode analysts found “that profits remain 6x larger than losses.” This ratio has maintained above the current value for about 20% of trading days, highlighting the robust financial position of the average Bitcoin investor.

Glassnode 分析师根据未实现利润总额与未实现损失之间的比率发现，“利润仍然是损失的 6 倍”。该比率在约 20% 的交易日内保持在当前值之上，凸显了普通比特币投资者稳健的财务状况。

“On average, BTC investors are holding relatively small unrealized losses compared to prior cycles, suggesting a relatively favorable position overall.”

“平均而言，与之前的周期相比，比特币投资者持有的未实现损失相对较小，这表明总体情况相对有利。”

Bitcoin unrealized profit to unrealized loss ratio. Source: Glassnode

比特币未实现利润与未实现损失之比。来源：Glassnode

Meanwhile, the bull market seems to have taken a pause. Short-term holders (STHs) bear the brunt of the current market pressure as prices stay underwater.

与此同时，牛市似乎暂停了。由于价格处于水下状态，短期持有者（STH）首当其冲地承受着当前的市场压力。

The STH cohort has experienced significant unrealized losses “with the magnitude consistently increasing over the last few months,” the report noted. However, when analyzing these losses relative to the market, Glassnode analysts found that they have not yet reached the full-scale bear market territory.

报告指出，STH 群体经历了重大的未实现损失，“其幅度在过去几个月中持续增加”。然而，在分析这些相对于市场的损失时，Glassnode 分析师发现，它们尚未达到全面的熊市区域。

The chart below shows that the STH market value realized value (MVRV) ratio has dropped below the break-even value of 1.0 and is trading at levels similar to August 2023, during the recovery rally after the FTX collapse.

下图显示，STH 市值变现值 (MVRV) 比率已跌至盈亏平衡值 1.0 以下，交易价格与 2023 年 8 月 FTX 崩盘后复苏反弹期间的水平相似。

“This tells us that the average new investor is holding an unrealized loss.”

“这告诉我们，新投资者平均持有未实现的损失。”

Bitcoin short-term holder MVRV. Source: Glassnode

比特币短期持有者 MVRV。来源：Glassnode

The report also highlighted that all age bands within the STH cohort are currently holding unrealized losses.

该报告还强调，STH 群体中的所有年龄段目前都持有未实现的损失。

Bitcoin still 10% down post-halving amid record delay to all-time high

比特币减半后仍下跌 10%，创纪录延迟创历史新高

Bitcoin price needs to reclaim the STH cost basis

比特币价格需要收回 STH 成本基础

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows Bitcoin price trading at $57,450, 7% below the STH cost basis of $62,400.

Cointelegraph Markets Pro 和 TradingView 的数据显示，比特币交易价格为 57,450 美元，比 STH 成本基础 62,400 美元低 7%。

Unless the spot price reclaims the STH cost basis, “there is an expectation for further market weakness,” Glassnode analysts warned. They added that the true market mean around the $51,000 demand zone remained a key area of interest that must be maintained for the bull market to continue.

Glassnode 分析师警告称，除非现货价格恢复 STH 成本基础，否则“预计市场将进一步疲软”。他们补充说，围绕 51,000 美元需求区域的真实市场平均值仍然是一个关键的兴趣区域，必须维持这一区域才能继续牛市。

“In the event of a local downturn, the pricing level of $51k remains a critical area of interest that must be maintained for further price appreciation.”

“如果当地经济低迷，5.1 万美元的定价水平仍然是一个关键的关注领域，必须维持这一水平才能进一步升值。”

Bitcoin realized price true-market mean. Source: Glassnode

比特币实现了真实市场均值价格。来源：Glassnode

Managing director of Bitcoin Magazine Pro, Philip Swift, made similar observations, adding that Bitcoin’s spot price is currently “below the entry cost basis for many short-term investors.”

Bitcoin Magazine Pro 董事总经理 Philip Swift 也提出了类似的观点，并补充说，比特币的现货价格目前“低于许多短期投资者的进入成本基础”。

In a Sept. 3 newsletter, Swift explained that the current scenario mirrors the August and September price action in 2023 when the price spent close to 60 days below the STH realized value.

在 9 月 3 日的时事通讯中，Swift 解释说，当前情况反映了 2023 年 8 月和 9 月的价格走势，当时价格低于 STH 实现价值近 60 天。

“Until that changes and Bitcoin’s price moves back above this metric, there will be uncertainty in the market as short-term investors hold paper losses.”

“在这种情况发生变化并且比特币价格回到这一指标之上之前，市场将存在不确定性，因为短期投资者持有账面损失。”

Bitcoin STH realized price. Source: Bitcoin Magazine Pro

比特币 STH 实现价格。资料来源：比特币杂志专业版

Swift added that for the bull run to continue, the price has to climb back above the STH cost basis, “which will help restore some much-needed confidence in the market.”

斯威夫特补充说，为了让牛市继续下去，价格必须回升至成本基础之上，“这将有助于恢复市场急需的信心。”

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

本文不包含投资建议或建议。每一项投资和交易行为都涉及风险，读者在做出决定时应自行研究。