比特幣[BTC]可能以看漲的勢頭開始，收盤價為97,406美元。

高於關鍵阻力水平的這種突破可以加強牛案，特別是考慮到BTC以前無法維持此閾值

May began with Bitcoin [BTC] displaying bullish momentum, eventually closing at $97,406. This breakout above a critical resistance level bodes well for bulls, especially considering BTC’s previous struggles to stay above this threshold since late February. However, this move also has bearish implications.

五月從比特幣[BTC]展示了看漲勢頭，最終以97,406美元的價格收盤。超過關鍵阻力水平的突破對公牛隊來說是很好的，尤其是考慮到BTC以前的努力以來，自2月下旬以來一直在超過這一門檻。但是，這一舉動也具有看跌的意義。

Bitcoin’s price has now crossed above the Short-Term Holder (STH) realized price, a shift that occurred on the 22nd of April. This pushed 155-day-old BTC from an underwater position to one of unrealized profit.

現在，比特幣的價格已經超過了短期持有人（STH）實現的價格，這是4月22日發生的變化。這將155天大的BTC從水下職位推向了未實現的利潤之一。

The STH realized price, currently at $93,342, denotes the average on-chain cost basis for these holders, forming a substantial support floor.

STH實現的價格目前為93,342美元，表示這些持有人的平均鏈上成本基礎，形成了大量的支撐層。

While a new all-time high seems within reach, anticipating a smooth, uninterrupted ascent might be premature.

雖然新的歷史高潮似乎可以觸及，但預計平穩，不間斷的上升可能還為時過早。

Three scenarios that could shape Bitcoin’s next rally

可以塑造比特幣的下一個集會的三種情況

Building on Bitcoin’s momentum ratio, renowned crypto analyst Axel Adler broke down three key scenarios for BTC’s next move after breaching the critical overhead supply at $97k.

以比特幣的動量比率為基礎，著名的加密分析師阿克塞爾·阿德勒（Axel Adler）在違反了9.7萬美元的關鍵間接費用後，為BTC的下一步行動打破了三個關鍵方案。

At press time, BTC’s on-chain momentum falls in the “start” rally zone, with the momentum ratio at about 0.8 (80%). This signifies that the market is poised for potential upside, but the direction will depend on how the ratio behaves in the coming weeks.

在發稿時，BTC的鏈動量落在“開始”集會區域，動量比率約為0.8（80％）。這表明市場有望獲得潛在的上行空間，但方向將取決於接下來幾週的比率。

If the momentum ratio manages to break above the 1.0 level and sustain, then key metrics like NUPL and MVRV would indicate a fresh upward impulse, potentially pushing Bitcoin’s price toward the $150k–$175k range.

如果動量比率設法超過1.0水平並維持下去，那麼Nupl和MVRV等關鍵指標將表明新鮮的衝動，可能會將比特幣的價格推向15萬美元 - 17.5萬美元的範圍。

Conversely, if the momentum ratio dips to 0.75 or lower, then we would likely see STHs start to cash out, paving the way for a deeper correction, possibly toward the $70k–$85k zone.

相反，如果動量比率下降到0.75或更低，那麼我們可能會看到STH開始兌現，為更深層的校正鋪平了道路，可能朝著$ 70K- $ 85K的區域鋪平。

In the third scenario, if the ratio stays in the 0.8-1.0 range, then BTC will likely remain in a wide trading range between $90k and $110k. In this case, market participants would maintain their positions, but we wouldn’t witness significant new exposure or buying pressure.

在第三種情況下，如果比率保持在0.8-1.0範圍內，那麼BTC可能會保持在$ 90K至11萬美元之間的廣泛交易範圍。在這種情況下，市場參與者將保持自己的立場，但我們不會看到重大的新曝光或購買壓力。

BTC’s most likely next move

BTC最有可能下一步

In the bullish scenario, should Bitcoin’s momentum ratio rise above 1.0 and sustain, we could witness a rally toward the $150k–$175k range. This aligns with previous macro cycles. In 2017, Bitcoin surged nearly 20x, and in 2021, it more than tripled after breaking prior highs — both cycles were characterized by the NUPL and MVRV ratios reaching euphoric zones.

在看漲的情況下，應該比特幣的勢頭比率上升到1.0及以上，我們可以看到朝著15萬美元 - 17.5萬美元的範圍的集會。這與以前的宏觀週期保持一致。 2017年，比特幣飆升了近20倍，在2021年，它在突破先前的高點後增加了兩倍以上 - 兩個週期的特徵是NUPL和MVRV比率達到欣快區域。

At press time, MVRV stood at 2.16 — still below the 3.9 threshold historically observed near market tops. This indicates that there is still some room for appreciation before overvaluation kicks in.

發稿時，MVRV的處於2.16的狀態，仍然低於3.9個閾值，歷史上在市場頂部附近觀察到。這表明在高估之前，仍然有一些值得讚賞的空間。

The implication is that the current market has not yet reached a euphoric phase.

這意味著目前的市場尚未達到欣快的階段。

Similarly, NUPL was at 0.54, suggesting early-stage optimism. If NUPL pushes toward the 0.74 range, it would correspond with past bull market peaks, hinting at further potential for upside.

同樣，NUPL為0.54，表明早期樂觀。如果NUPL推向0.74範圍，它將與過去的牛市峰相對應，這暗示了進一步的上升潛力。

However, if sustained buying pressure fails to materialize, a base-case scenario of consolidation between $90k–$110k becomes more likely, especially considering resistance-driven corrections.

但是，如果持續的購買壓力無法實現，則更有可能在$ 90K到11萬美元之間的固結場景，尤其是考慮到阻力驅動的校正。

That said, given a correction has already played out recently, the bullish and consolidation scenarios carry more weight than a deeper pullback.

也就是說，鑑於最近已經進行了更正，看漲和整合場景的重量比更深的回調還要多。

Keep an eye on these indicators, as they will be crucial in determining Bitcoin’s next move.

請注意這些指標，因為它們對於確定比特幣的下一步行動至關重要。