比特币[BTC]可能以看涨的势头开始，收盘价为97,406美元。

高于关键阻力水平的这种突破可以加强牛案，特别是考虑到BTC以前无法维持此阈值

May began with Bitcoin [BTC] displaying bullish momentum, eventually closing at $97,406. This breakout above a critical resistance level bodes well for bulls, especially considering BTC’s previous struggles to stay above this threshold since late February. However, this move also has bearish implications.

五月从比特币[BTC]展示了看涨势头，最终以97,406美元的价格收盘。超过关键阻力水平的突破对公牛队来说是很好的，尤其是考虑到BTC以前的努力以来，自2月下旬以来一直在超过这一门槛。但是，这一举动也具有看跌的意义。

Bitcoin’s price has now crossed above the Short-Term Holder (STH) realized price, a shift that occurred on the 22nd of April. This pushed 155-day-old BTC from an underwater position to one of unrealized profit.

现在，比特币的价格已经超过了短期持有人（STH）实现的价格，这是4月22日发生的变化。这将155天大的BTC从水下职位推向了未实现的利润之一。

The STH realized price, currently at $93,342, denotes the average on-chain cost basis for these holders, forming a substantial support floor.

STH实现的价格目前为93,342美元，表示这些持有人的平均链上成本基础，形成了大量的支撑层。

While a new all-time high seems within reach, anticipating a smooth, uninterrupted ascent might be premature.

虽然新的历史高潮似乎可以触及，但预计平稳，不间断的上升可能还为时过早。

Three scenarios that could shape Bitcoin’s next rally

可以塑造比特币的下一个集会的三种情况

Building on Bitcoin’s momentum ratio, renowned crypto analyst Axel Adler broke down three key scenarios for BTC’s next move after breaching the critical overhead supply at $97k.

以比特币的动量比率为基础，著名的加密分析师阿克塞尔·阿德勒（Axel Adler）在违反了9.7万美元的关键间接费用后，为BTC的下一步行动打破了三个关键方案。

At press time, BTC’s on-chain momentum falls in the “start” rally zone, with the momentum ratio at about 0.8 (80%). This signifies that the market is poised for potential upside, but the direction will depend on how the ratio behaves in the coming weeks.

在发稿时，BTC的链动量落在“开始”集会区域，动量比率约为0.8（80％）。这表明市场有望获得潜在的上行空间，但方向将取决于接下来几周的比率。

If the momentum ratio manages to break above the 1.0 level and sustain, then key metrics like NUPL and MVRV would indicate a fresh upward impulse, potentially pushing Bitcoin’s price toward the $150k–$175k range.

如果动量比率设法超过1.0水平并维持下去，那么Nupl和MVRV等关键指标将表明新鲜的冲动，可能会将比特币的价格推向15万美元 - 17.5万美元的范围。

Conversely, if the momentum ratio dips to 0.75 or lower, then we would likely see STHs start to cash out, paving the way for a deeper correction, possibly toward the $70k–$85k zone.

相反，如果动量比率下降到0.75或更低，那么我们可能会看到STH开始兑现，为更深层的校正铺平了道路，可能朝着$ 70K- $ 85K的区域铺平。

In the third scenario, if the ratio stays in the 0.8-1.0 range, then BTC will likely remain in a wide trading range between $90k and $110k. In this case, market participants would maintain their positions, but we wouldn’t witness significant new exposure or buying pressure.

在第三种情况下，如果比率保持在0.8-1.0范围内，那么BTC可能会保持在$ 90K至11万美元之间的广泛交易范围。在这种情况下，市场参与者将保持自己的立场，但我们不会看到重大的新曝光或购买压力。

BTC’s most likely next move

BTC最有可能下一步

In the bullish scenario, should Bitcoin’s momentum ratio rise above 1.0 and sustain, we could witness a rally toward the $150k–$175k range. This aligns with previous macro cycles. In 2017, Bitcoin surged nearly 20x, and in 2021, it more than tripled after breaking prior highs — both cycles were characterized by the NUPL and MVRV ratios reaching euphoric zones.

在看涨的情况下，应该比特币的势头比率上升到1.0及以上，我们可以看到朝着15万美元 - 17.5万美元的范围的集会。这与以前的宏观周期保持一致。 2017年，比特币飙升了近20倍，在2021年，它在突破先前的高点后增加了两倍以上 - 两个周期的特征是NUPL和MVRV比率达到欣快区域。

At press time, MVRV stood at 2.16 — still below the 3.9 threshold historically observed near market tops. This indicates that there is still some room for appreciation before overvaluation kicks in.

发稿时，MVRV的处于2.16的状态，仍然低于3.9个阈值，历史上在市场顶部附近观察到。这表明在高估之前，仍然有一些值得赞赏的空间。

The implication is that the current market has not yet reached a euphoric phase.

这意味着目前的市场尚未达到欣快的阶段。

Similarly, NUPL was at 0.54, suggesting early-stage optimism. If NUPL pushes toward the 0.74 range, it would correspond with past bull market peaks, hinting at further potential for upside.

同样，NUPL为0.54，表明早期乐观。如果NUPL推向0.74范围，它将与过去的牛市峰相对应，这暗示了进一步的上升潜力。

However, if sustained buying pressure fails to materialize, a base-case scenario of consolidation between $90k–$110k becomes more likely, especially considering resistance-driven corrections.

但是，如果持续的购买压力无法实现，则更有可能在$ 90K到11万美元之间的固结场景，尤其是考虑到阻力驱动的校正。

That said, given a correction has already played out recently, the bullish and consolidation scenarios carry more weight than a deeper pullback.

也就是说，鉴于最近已经进行了更正，看涨和整合场景的重量比更深的回调还要多。

Keep an eye on these indicators, as they will be crucial in determining Bitcoin’s next move.

请注意这些指标，因为它们对于确定比特币的下一步行动至关重要。