Bitcoin [BTC] started May off with bullish momentum, closing at $97,406.

May began with Bitcoin [BTC] displaying bullish momentum, eventually closing at $97,406. This breakout above a critical resistance level bodes well for bulls, especially considering BTC’s previous struggles to stay above this threshold since late February. However, this move also has bearish implications.

Bitcoin’s price has now crossed above the Short-Term Holder (STH) realized price, a shift that occurred on the 22nd of April. This pushed 155-day-old BTC from an underwater position to one of unrealized profit.

The STH realized price, currently at $93,342, denotes the average on-chain cost basis for these holders, forming a substantial support floor.

While a new all-time high seems within reach, anticipating a smooth, uninterrupted ascent might be premature.

Three scenarios that could shape Bitcoin’s next rally

Building on Bitcoin’s momentum ratio, renowned crypto analyst Axel Adler broke down three key scenarios for BTC’s next move after breaching the critical overhead supply at $97k.

At press time, BTC’s on-chain momentum falls in the “start” rally zone, with the momentum ratio at about 0.8 (80%). This signifies that the market is poised for potential upside, but the direction will depend on how the ratio behaves in the coming weeks.

If the momentum ratio manages to break above the 1.0 level and sustain, then key metrics like NUPL and MVRV would indicate a fresh upward impulse, potentially pushing Bitcoin’s price toward the $150k–$175k range.

Conversely, if the momentum ratio dips to 0.75 or lower, then we would likely see STHs start to cash out, paving the way for a deeper correction, possibly toward the $70k–$85k zone.

In the third scenario, if the ratio stays in the 0.8-1.0 range, then BTC will likely remain in a wide trading range between $90k and $110k. In this case, market participants would maintain their positions, but we wouldn’t witness significant new exposure or buying pressure.

BTC’s most likely next move

In the bullish scenario, should Bitcoin’s momentum ratio rise above 1.0 and sustain, we could witness a rally toward the $150k–$175k range. This aligns with previous macro cycles. In 2017, Bitcoin surged nearly 20x, and in 2021, it more than tripled after breaking prior highs — both cycles were characterized by the NUPL and MVRV ratios reaching euphoric zones.

At press time, MVRV stood at 2.16 — still below the 3.9 threshold historically observed near market tops. This indicates that there is still some room for appreciation before overvaluation kicks in.

The implication is that the current market has not yet reached a euphoric phase.

Similarly, NUPL was at 0.54, suggesting early-stage optimism. If NUPL pushes toward the 0.74 range, it would correspond with past bull market peaks, hinting at further potential for upside.

However, if sustained buying pressure fails to materialize, a base-case scenario of consolidation between $90k–$110k becomes more likely, especially considering resistance-driven corrections.

That said, given a correction has already played out recently, the bullish and consolidation scenarios carry more weight than a deeper pullback.

Keep an eye on these indicators, as they will be crucial in determining Bitcoin’s next move.