比特幣（BTC）可能會重複一種歷史模式，導致2022年急劇下降

市場分析師彼得·布蘭特（Peter Brandt）建議，比特幣可能會重複一種歷史模式，導致2022年的價格下降。

Market analyst Peter Brandt has suggested that Bitcoin (BTC) could be repeating a historical pattern that led to a sharp price decline in 2022.

市場分析師彼得·布蘭特（Peter Brandt）建議，比特幣（BTC）可能會重複一種歷史模式，導致2022年的價格下降。

In a chart shared on Thursday, Brandt pointed to a possible double-top formation in Bitcoin’s current price action. He compared it to a similar setup that preceded a 75% drop three years ago.

在周四分享的圖表中，勃蘭特指出，比特幣目前的價格行動中可能是雙頂組成。他將其與三年前75％下降之前的類似設置進行了比較。

"Each halving has led to strong rallies but on a weaker scale," Brandt stated. "The last time Bitcoin formed a double top was in 2021, leading to a 75% decline from the highs."

勃蘭特說：“每個減半都導致了強大的集會，但規模較弱。” “比特幣最後一次形成雙頂部是在2021年，導致高點下降了75％。”

Brandt also referenced a longer-term pattern he calls "Exponential Decay," which shows that Bitcoin’s gains during each bull cycle have decreased over time. According to his data, the 2009–2011 cycle saw gains of over 3,000 times. The 2018–2021 cycle saw a 22-fold increase. In the current cycle, Brandt estimates the rise is about 4.5 times from the 2022 low of $15,473 to the 2024 high of $72,723.

布蘭特還提到了他稱之為“指數衰減”的長期模式，這表明每個公牛週期中比特幣的收益隨時間而下降。根據他的數據，2009 - 2011年周期的增長超過3,000次。 2018-2021週期增加了22倍。在當前週期中，勃蘭特估計，從2022年低點15,473美元到2024年高點72,723美元的上升約為4.5倍。

"My math has a 25% chance of being correct, and if it is, then we topped in March 2024," Brandt added. "A return to the mid-30K levels would complete the pattern."

勃蘭特補充說：“我的數學有25％的機會正確，如果是正確的話，那麼我們在2024年3月就位了。” “回到30k中期的水平將完成模式。”

As some traders focus on technical risks, institutional interest in Bitcoin continues to grow. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has become the fastest exchange-traded fund in history to surpass $70 billion in assets under management. It achieved this milestone in just 341 trading days. This is more than 80% faster than the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), which took 1,691 days to reach the same level.

隨著一些貿易商專注於技術風險，對比特幣的機構利益不斷增長。貝萊德（Blackrock）的iShares比特幣信託（IBIT）已成為歷史上最快的交易所資金，超過了管理資產的700億美元。它在短短341個交易日內就達到了這一里程碑。它比SPDR Gold Enaers ETF（GLD）快80％以上，該股票花費了1,691天才能達到同一水平。

IBIT now holds around 661,457 BTC. This makes BlackRock the largest institutional holder of Bitcoin and puts it ahead of Binance and MicroStrategy in total holdings. The fund did experience a major $430.8 million outflow on May 30. This ended a 31-day streak of inflows, but it quickly recovered. On June 10, the fund saw $336.7 million in net inflows, with total spot Bitcoin ETF inflows reaching $431.2 million that day, according to Farside Investors.

IBIT現在擁有約661,457 BTC。這使黑石成為比特幣的最大機構持有者，並將其領先於Binance和MicroStrategy。該基金在5月30日確實經歷了4.3億美元的流出量。這結束了3​​1天的流入，但很快就恢復了。根據Farside Investors的數據，該基金在6月10日的淨流入量為3.367億美元，當天的現貨比特幣ETF流入達到4.312億美元。

“At this rate, they’ll own more Bitcoin than Satoshi by next summer,” said ETF analyst Eric Balchunas.

ETF分析師Eric Balchunas說：“以這種速度，到明年夏天，他們將擁有比Satoshi更多的比特幣。”

The founder of Bitcoin is said to hold 980,000 to 1.1 million BTC, which is about 5.2% of the total supply.

據說比特幣的創始人持有980,000至110萬BTC，約佔總供應量的5.2％。

Meanwhile, public companies are expanding their direct exposure to Bitcoin. In a recent regulatory filing, GameStop disclosed that it purchased 4,710 BTC between May 3 and June 10 using corporate cash reserves. Based on recent market prices, the purchase is valued at over $516 million.

同時，上市公司正在擴大其直接接觸比特幣。在最近的監管文件中，GameStop透露，它在5月3日至6月10日之間使用公司現金儲備購買了4,710 BTC。根據最近的市場價格，購買價值超過5.16億美元。

This move brings GameStop into a growing group of publicly listed firms holding Bitcoin as part of their treasury strategy. According to calculations by BTCVisu, 34 public companies now hold a combined 723,500 BTC, valued at around $79 billion. These holdings account for 3.64% of Bitcoin’s total supply of 21 million coins.

這一舉動將GameStop帶入了持有比特幣的持有的一群公開上市公司，作為其國庫策略的一部分。根據BTCVISU的計算，現在有34家上市公司持有723,500 BTC，價值約790億美元。這些持股佔比特幣總供應2100萬枚硬幣的3.64％。

Other large holders include MicroStrategy, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN), Marathon Digital, Block Inc (NYSE:SQ), and Galaxy Digital. With its recent purchase, GameStop ranks just below Tesla in terms of total Bitcoin holdings among public companies.

其他大型持有人包括MicroStrategy，Tesla（NASDAQ：TSLA），Coinbase（NASDAQ：COIN），Marathon Digital，Block Inc（NYSE：SQ）和Galaxy Digital。在最近的購買中，GameStop就公開公司的總比特幣持有量而言，略低於特斯拉。