比特币（BTC）可能会重复一种历史模式，导致2022年急剧下降

市场分析师彼得·布兰特（Peter Brandt）建议，比特币可能会重复一种历史模式，导致2022年的价格下降。

Market analyst Peter Brandt has suggested that Bitcoin (BTC) could be repeating a historical pattern that led to a sharp price decline in 2022.

市场分析师彼得·布兰特（Peter Brandt）建议，比特币（BTC）可能会重复一种历史模式，导致2022年的价格下降。

In a chart shared on Thursday, Brandt pointed to a possible double-top formation in Bitcoin’s current price action. He compared it to a similar setup that preceded a 75% drop three years ago.

在周四分享的图表中，勃兰特指出，比特币目前的价格行动中可能是双顶组成。他将其与三年前75％下降之前的类似设置进行了比较。

"Each halving has led to strong rallies but on a weaker scale," Brandt stated. "The last time Bitcoin formed a double top was in 2021, leading to a 75% decline from the highs."

勃兰特说：“每个减半都导致了强大的集会，但规模较弱。” “比特币最后一次形成双顶部是在2021年，导致高点下降了75％。”

Brandt also referenced a longer-term pattern he calls "Exponential Decay," which shows that Bitcoin’s gains during each bull cycle have decreased over time. According to his data, the 2009–2011 cycle saw gains of over 3,000 times. The 2018–2021 cycle saw a 22-fold increase. In the current cycle, Brandt estimates the rise is about 4.5 times from the 2022 low of $15,473 to the 2024 high of $72,723.

布兰特还提到了他称之为“指数衰减”的长期模式，这表明每个公牛周期中比特币的收益随时间而下降。根据他的数据，2009 - 2011年周期的增长超过3,000次。 2018-2021周期增加了22倍。在当前周期中，勃兰特估计，从2022年低点15,473美元到2024年高点72,723美元的上升约为4.5倍。

"My math has a 25% chance of being correct, and if it is, then we topped in March 2024," Brandt added. "A return to the mid-30K levels would complete the pattern."

勃兰特补充说：“我的数学有25％的机会正确，如果是正确的话，那么我们在2024年3月就位了。” “回到30k中期的水平将完成模式。”

As some traders focus on technical risks, institutional interest in Bitcoin continues to grow. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has become the fastest exchange-traded fund in history to surpass $70 billion in assets under management. It achieved this milestone in just 341 trading days. This is more than 80% faster than the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), which took 1,691 days to reach the same level.

随着一些贸易商专注于技术风险，对比特币的机构利益不断增长。贝莱德（Blackrock）的iShares比特币信托（IBIT）已成为历史上最快的交易所资金，超过了管理资产的700亿美元。它在短短341个交易日内就达到了这一里程碑。它比SPDR Gold Enaers ETF（GLD）快80％以上，该股票花费了1,691天才能达到同一水平。

IBIT now holds around 661,457 BTC. This makes BlackRock the largest institutional holder of Bitcoin and puts it ahead of Binance and MicroStrategy in total holdings. The fund did experience a major $430.8 million outflow on May 30. This ended a 31-day streak of inflows, but it quickly recovered. On June 10, the fund saw $336.7 million in net inflows, with total spot Bitcoin ETF inflows reaching $431.2 million that day, according to Farside Investors.

IBIT现在拥有约661,457 BTC。这使黑石成为比特币的最大机构持有者，并将其领先于Binance和MicroStrategy。该基金在5月30日确实经历了4.3亿美元的流出量。这结束了31天的流入，但很快就恢复了。根据Farside Investors的数据，该基金在6月10日的净流入量为3.367亿美元，当天的现货比特币ETF流入达到4.312亿美元。

“At this rate, they’ll own more Bitcoin than Satoshi by next summer,” said ETF analyst Eric Balchunas.

ETF分析师Eric Balchunas说：“以这种速度，到明年夏天，他们将拥有比Satoshi更多的比特币。”

The founder of Bitcoin is said to hold 980,000 to 1.1 million BTC, which is about 5.2% of the total supply.

据说比特币的创始人持有980,000至110万BTC，约占总供应量的5.2％。

Meanwhile, public companies are expanding their direct exposure to Bitcoin. In a recent regulatory filing, GameStop disclosed that it purchased 4,710 BTC between May 3 and June 10 using corporate cash reserves. Based on recent market prices, the purchase is valued at over $516 million.

同时，上市公司正在扩大其直接接触比特币。在最近的监管文件中，GameStop透露，它在5月3日至6月10日之间使用公司现金储备购买了4,710 BTC。根据最近的市场价格，购买价值超过5.16亿美元。

This move brings GameStop into a growing group of publicly listed firms holding Bitcoin as part of their treasury strategy. According to calculations by BTCVisu, 34 public companies now hold a combined 723,500 BTC, valued at around $79 billion. These holdings account for 3.64% of Bitcoin’s total supply of 21 million coins.

这一举动将GameStop带入了持有比特币的持有的一群公开上市公司，作为其国库策略的一部分。根据BTCVISU的计算，现在有34家上市公司持有723,500 BTC，价值约790亿美元。这些持股占比特币总供应2100万枚硬币的3.64％。

Other large holders include MicroStrategy, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN), Marathon Digital, Block Inc (NYSE:SQ), and Galaxy Digital. With its recent purchase, GameStop ranks just below Tesla in terms of total Bitcoin holdings among public companies.

其他大型持有人包括MicroStrategy，Tesla（NASDAQ：TSLA），Coinbase（NASDAQ：COIN），Marathon Digital，Block Inc（NYSE：SQ）和Galaxy Digital。在最近的购买中，GameStop就公开公司的总比特币持有量而言，略低于特斯拉。