Bitcoin (BTC) Could Be Repeating a Historical Pattern That Led to a Sharp Price Drop in 2022

Market analyst Peter Brandt has suggested that Bitcoin could be repeating a historical pattern that led to a sharp price decline in 2022.

Market analyst Peter Brandt has suggested that Bitcoin (BTC) could be repeating a historical pattern that led to a sharp price decline in 2022.

In a chart shared on Thursday, Brandt pointed to a possible double-top formation in Bitcoin’s current price action. He compared it to a similar setup that preceded a 75% drop three years ago.

"Each halving has led to strong rallies but on a weaker scale," Brandt stated. "The last time Bitcoin formed a double top was in 2021, leading to a 75% decline from the highs."

Brandt also referenced a longer-term pattern he calls "Exponential Decay," which shows that Bitcoin’s gains during each bull cycle have decreased over time. According to his data, the 2009–2011 cycle saw gains of over 3,000 times. The 2018–2021 cycle saw a 22-fold increase. In the current cycle, Brandt estimates the rise is about 4.5 times from the 2022 low of $15,473 to the 2024 high of $72,723.

"My math has a 25% chance of being correct, and if it is, then we topped in March 2024," Brandt added. "A return to the mid-30K levels would complete the pattern."

As some traders focus on technical risks, institutional interest in Bitcoin continues to grow. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has become the fastest exchange-traded fund in history to surpass $70 billion in assets under management. It achieved this milestone in just 341 trading days. This is more than 80% faster than the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), which took 1,691 days to reach the same level.

IBIT now holds around 661,457 BTC. This makes BlackRock the largest institutional holder of Bitcoin and puts it ahead of Binance and MicroStrategy in total holdings. The fund did experience a major $430.8 million outflow on May 30. This ended a 31-day streak of inflows, but it quickly recovered. On June 10, the fund saw $336.7 million in net inflows, with total spot Bitcoin ETF inflows reaching $431.2 million that day, according to Farside Investors.

“At this rate, they’ll own more Bitcoin than Satoshi by next summer,” said ETF analyst Eric Balchunas.

The founder of Bitcoin is said to hold 980,000 to 1.1 million BTC, which is about 5.2% of the total supply.

Meanwhile, public companies are expanding their direct exposure to Bitcoin. In a recent regulatory filing, GameStop disclosed that it purchased 4,710 BTC between May 3 and June 10 using corporate cash reserves. Based on recent market prices, the purchase is valued at over $516 million.

This move brings GameStop into a growing group of publicly listed firms holding Bitcoin as part of their treasury strategy. According to calculations by BTCVisu, 34 public companies now hold a combined 723,500 BTC, valued at around $79 billion. These holdings account for 3.64% of Bitcoin’s total supply of 21 million coins.

Other large holders include MicroStrategy, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN), Marathon Digital, Block Inc (NYSE:SQ), and Galaxy Digital. With its recent purchase, GameStop ranks just below Tesla in terms of total Bitcoin holdings among public companies.