比特幣 (BTC) 上週上漲 11%，達到 7 月的高點

然而，一些分析師認為，宏觀經濟逆風可能很快就會破壞這種看漲勢頭。

Bitcoin’s 11% surge last week brought it to highs last seen in July. But some analysts now warn that worsening macroeconomic conditions could quickly halt the coin’s bullish momentum.

比特幣上週飆升 11%，創下 7 月以來的最高點。但一些分析師現在警告說，不斷惡化的宏觀經濟狀況可能會迅速阻止代幣的看漲勢頭。

Rising U.S. bond yields, a threat to BitcoinYuya Hasegawa, a crypto analyst at Japan’s Bitbank, highlighted the worsening conditions in the U.S. bond market. He noted that rising Treasury yields “are a concern for Bitcoin in the immediate future.”

美國債券殖利率上升對比特幣構成威脅日本Bitbank加密貨幣分析師Yuya Hasekawa突顯了美國債券市場狀況的惡化。他指出，國債殖利率上升「是比特幣近期的一個擔憂」。

When bond yields are high, they tend to become more attractive than assets deemed risky, like Bitcoin. This scenario could drive investors away from cryptocurrencies and toward U.S. bonds, which offer less volatility.

當債券收益率較高時，它們往往比比特幣等被視為高風險的資產更具吸引力。這種情況可能會讓投資者遠離加密貨幣，轉向波動性較小的美國債券。

In mid-October, the 10-year Treasury note yield hovered between 4.02% and 4.08% — a high rate that could serve as a compelling alternative to crypto assets.

10 月中旬，10 年期公債殖利率徘徊在 4.02% 至 4.08% 之間——這一高利率可以作為加密資產的引人注目的替代品。

Furthermore, recent U.S. economic data came in stronger than expected, reigniting concerns over the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance. Strong retail sales and jobless claims had some questioning how quickly the Fed might ease its rate policy.

此外，近期美國經濟數據強於預期，再次引發人們對聯準會貨幣政策立場的擔憂。強勁的零售銷售和初請失業金人數讓一些人質疑聯準會放鬆利率政策的速度。

A rate cut in November still on the tableDespite these worrying factors, Hasegawa noted that there’s still a “decent chance” the Federal Open Market Committee will opt for a 25-basis-point cut when it meets in early November. This view is shared by a majority of traders, with only 9% anticipating the U.S. interest rates will remain unchanged.

11 月降息仍在考慮之中 儘管存在這些令人擔憂的因素，長谷川指出，聯邦公開市場委員會在 11 月初的會議上仍有「相當大的機會」選擇降息 25 個基點。大多數交易員都持這種觀點，只有 9% 的交易員預計美國利率將保持不變。

The recent decision by the European Central Bank to lower its key rates by 25 basis points could also support the Bitcoin price in the short term. According to Valentin Fournier, an analyst at BRN, “The rate cut should increase market liquidity, which will ultimately benefit the performance of risk assets like Bitcoin.”

歐洲央行最近決定將關鍵利率降低 25 個基點也可能在短期內支撐比特幣價格。 BRN 分析師 Valentin Fournier 表示，“降息應該會增加市場流動性，最終將有利於比特幣等風險資產的表現。”

Together with the strong inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and the favorable macroeconomic catalysts, there’s potential for a strong price rally. Fournier even suggests that Bitcoin could hit $70,000 by Monday if it avoids a weekend rejection.

加上比特幣 ETF 的大量資金流入和有利的宏觀經濟催化劑，價格有可能強勁上漲。 Fournier 甚至表示，如果比特幣避免週末遭到拒絕，到週一比特幣可能會達到 7 萬美元。

While macroeconomic challenges remain, especially with bond yields and the Fed’s policy stance, Bitcoin seems to be benefiting from a largely favorable environment for the time being. However, investors will need to proceed with caution given the potential turbulence that may unfold in the coming weeks.

儘管宏觀經濟挑戰仍然存在，特別是債券殖利率和聯準會的政策立場，但比特幣目前似乎受益於基本有利的環境。然而，考慮到未來幾週可能出現的潛在動盪，投資者需要謹慎行事。