比特币 (BTC) 上周上涨 11%，达到 7 月份的高位

然而，一些分析师认为，宏观经济逆风可能很快就会破坏这种看涨势头。

Bitcoin’s 11% surge last week brought it to highs last seen in July. But some analysts now warn that worsening macroeconomic conditions could quickly halt the coin’s bullish momentum.

比特币上周飙升 11%，创下 7 月以来的最高点。但一些分析师现在警告说，不断恶化的宏观经济状况可能会迅速阻止代币的看涨势头。

Rising U.S. bond yields, a threat to BitcoinYuya Hasegawa, a crypto analyst at Japan’s Bitbank, highlighted the worsening conditions in the U.S. bond market. He noted that rising Treasury yields “are a concern for Bitcoin in the immediate future.”

美国债券收益率上升对比特币构成威胁日本Bitbank加密货币分析师Yuya Hasekawa突显了美国债券市场状况的恶化。他指出，国债收益率上升“是比特币近期的一个担忧”。

When bond yields are high, they tend to become more attractive than assets deemed risky, like Bitcoin. This scenario could drive investors away from cryptocurrencies and toward U.S. bonds, which offer less volatility.

当债券收益率较高时，它们往往比比特币等被视为高风险的资产更具吸引力。这种情况可能会让投资者远离加密货币，转向波动性较小的美国债券。

In mid-October, the 10-year Treasury note yield hovered between 4.02% and 4.08% — a high rate that could serve as a compelling alternative to crypto assets.

10 月中旬，10 年期国债收益率徘徊在 4.02% 至 4.08% 之间——这一高利率可以作为加密资产的引人注目的替代品。

Furthermore, recent U.S. economic data came in stronger than expected, reigniting concerns over the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance. Strong retail sales and jobless claims had some questioning how quickly the Fed might ease its rate policy.

此外，近期美国经济数据强于预期，再次引发人们对美联储货币政策立场的担忧。强劲的零售销售和初请失业金人数让一些人质疑美联储放松利率政策的速度。

A rate cut in November still on the tableDespite these worrying factors, Hasegawa noted that there’s still a “decent chance” the Federal Open Market Committee will opt for a 25-basis-point cut when it meets in early November. This view is shared by a majority of traders, with only 9% anticipating the U.S. interest rates will remain unchanged.

11 月降息仍在考虑之中 尽管存在这些令人担忧的因素，长谷川指出，联邦公开市场委员会在 11 月初的会议上仍有“相当大的机会”选择降息 25 个基点。大多数交易员都持这种观点，只有 9% 的交易员预计美国利率将保持不变。

The recent decision by the European Central Bank to lower its key rates by 25 basis points could also support the Bitcoin price in the short term. According to Valentin Fournier, an analyst at BRN, “The rate cut should increase market liquidity, which will ultimately benefit the performance of risk assets like Bitcoin.”

欧洲央行最近决定将关键利率降低 25 个基点也可能在短期内支撑比特币价格。 BRN 分析师 Valentin Fournier 表示，“降息应该会增加市场流动性，这最终将有利于比特币等风险资产的表现。”

Together with the strong inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and the favorable macroeconomic catalysts, there’s potential for a strong price rally. Fournier even suggests that Bitcoin could hit $70,000 by Monday if it avoids a weekend rejection.

加上比特币 ETF 的大量资金流入和有利的宏观经济催化剂，价格有可能强劲上涨。 Fournier 甚至表示，如果比特币避免周末遭到拒绝，到周一比特币可能会达到 70,000 美元。

While macroeconomic challenges remain, especially with bond yields and the Fed’s policy stance, Bitcoin seems to be benefiting from a largely favorable environment for the time being. However, investors will need to proceed with caution given the potential turbulence that may unfold in the coming weeks.

尽管宏观经济挑战仍然存在，特别是债券收益率和美联储的政策立场，但比特币目前似乎受益于基本有利的环境。然而，考虑到未来几周可能出现的潜在动荡，投资者需要谨慎行事。