比特幣 (BTC) 價格到年底可能飆升至 10 萬美元，但通往六位數的道路預計不會一帆風順

經過幾週的熱潮後，比特幣可能會在年底飆升至 10 萬美元，但通往六位數的道路預計不會一帆風順。

Bitcoin’s price could still surge to $100,000 by the end of the year despite the recent price dip, according to Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan.

Bitwise 首席投資長 Matt Hougan 表示，儘管最近價格下跌，但到今年年底，比特幣的價格仍可能飆升至 10 萬美元。

However, Hougan said in a public memo that the path to six figures is not expected to be straightforward.

然而，侯根在公開備忘錄中表示，達到六位數的道路預計不會一帆風順。

“The crypto market is facing a weird dynamic right now,” Hougan said. “All the short-term news is bad, and all the long-term news is good. The dichotomy is creating an incredible potential opportunity for long-term investors.”

「加密貨幣市場現在面臨著一種奇怪的動態，」霍根說。 「所有短期消息都是壞消息，所有長期消息都是好消息。這種二分法正在為長期投資者創造令人難以置信的潛在機會。

After trading well above the $60,000 mark for over two months, BTC slumped to lows of $57,000, sparking fears of the start of an extended bear market or a long-term sideways trading pattern. Hougan said that a bird’s eye view of the ecosystem reveals bright prospects for the future of Bitcoin and altcoins.

在遠高於 60,000 美元大關兩個多月後，BTC 跌至 57,000 美元低點，引發了人們對熊市延長或長期橫盤交易模式開始的擔憂。霍根表示，鳥瞰生態系統揭示了比特幣和山寨幣未來的光明前景。

“A bird’s-eye view of the crypto ecosystem shows that 2022 is shaping up to be a banner year for Bitcoin and altcoins despite the day-to-day market gyrations,” Hougan said in the memo.

Hougan 在備忘錄中表示：“縱觀加密貨幣生態系統，2022 年將成為比特幣和山寨幣的標誌性一年，儘管市場每天都在波動。”

The CIO noted that the biggest growth indicator lies with spot Bitcoin ETPs, with inflows in the products breaking all existing records following their launch in January. Hougan opines that more inflows in the region of “billions” could make their way into ETPs after large wealth management platforms approve their use by the end of the year.

CIO 指出，最大的成長指標在於現貨比特幣 ETP，自 1 月推出以來，該產品的流入量打破了所有現有記錄。 Hougan 認為，在大型財富管理平台年底前批准使用 ETP 後，「數十億」的更多資金可能會進入 ETP。

“The biggest growth story of 2022 is the launch of spot Bitcoin ETPs in the US,” Hougan said. “Inflows into these products have broken all records set by previous crypto ETPs, and they now total more than $3.5 billion in just six months.

「2022 年最大的成長故事是在美國推出現貨比特幣 ETP，」Hougan 說。 「這些產品的資金流入打破了先前加密貨幣 ETP 創下的所有記錄，目前在短短六個月內總計超過 35 億美元。

Although the popular belief is that the BTC halving has been priced in, Hougan argues that the asset has always surged by leaps and bounds in the months following the event. The memo predicts that 2024 will not be any different, and bulls can brace themselves for a rally to take them to six digits by the end of the year.

儘管人們普遍認為比特幣減半已經被定價，但霍根認為，在減半事件發生後的幾個月裡，資產一直在突飛猛進。該備忘錄預測 2024 年不會有任何不同，多頭可以準備好迎接年底前將股價上漲至六位數的反彈。

“The narrative that the BTC halving is already priced in is a common refrain, but the data shows that the asset has rallied significantly in the months following the event,” Hougan said.

「關於比特幣減半已經被定價的說法是一種常見的說法，但數據顯示，該資產在減半事件發生後的幾個月內大幅上漲，」Hougan 說。

“In 2016, BTC rose 300% from the halving in July to the year-end. In 2020, it rose 400% from the May halving to the December peak. If a similar dynamic plays out in 2024, following the April halving, the asset could rally to $100,000 by the end of the year.”

「2016年，BTC從7月減半到年底上漲了300%。 2020年，從5月減半到12月高峰上漲了400%。如果在 4 月減半之後，類似的動態在 2024 年上演，那麼該資產到年底可能會反彈至 10 萬美元。

He buttressed his points by leaning on the government’s changing stance toward cryptocurrencies and the elevation of the topic as a front burner in the lead-up to the US presidential elections. Already, Republican candidate Donald Trump has publicly declared full support for BTC with several pundits noting that his victory at the polls could send asset prices through the roof.

他透過政府對加密貨幣立場的轉變以及在美國總統選舉前將這一主題提升為焦點來支持自己的觀點。共和黨候選人川普已經公開宣布全力支持比特幣，一些專家指出，他在民調中的勝利可能會導致資產價格飆升。

“The government’s changing stance toward cryptocurrencies, and the elevation of the topic as a front burner in the lead-up to the US presidential elections, is also setting the stage for a potential surge to $100,000,” Hougan said.

Hougan 表示：“政府對加密貨幣立場的轉變，以及美國總統大選前夕該話題被提升為熱門話題，也為加密貨幣價格可能飆升至 10 萬美元奠定了基礎。”

“Donald Trump has already publicly declared full support for BTC, and several pundits have noted that his victory at the polls could send asset prices through the roof.”

“唐納德·特朗普已經公開宣布全力支持比特幣，一些專家指出，他在民意調查中的勝利可能會導致資產價格飆升。”

Hougan cites potential rate cuts by the US funds, steady growth rates in stablecoins, and the wading of financial behemoths into the space as reasons for a potential surge to $100K.

Hougan 指出，美國基金可能降息、穩定幣的穩定成長率以及金融巨頭涉足該領域是比特幣價格可能飆升至 10 萬美元的原因。

“A slew of headwinds in BTC’s pathDespite BTC’s upbeat long-term prospects, the asset has to contend with a wave of headwinds that threaten to push prices to new lows,” Hougan said.

「比特幣發展道路上的一系列阻力儘管比特幣的長期前景樂觀，但該資產必須應對一波可能將價格推至新低的阻力，」Hougan 表示。

Traders are grappling with the unsavory effects of Mt. Gox distributing over $8 billion worth of BTC to creditors at the start of July and Germany’s sale of a chunk of its BTC holdings.

交易員正在努力應對 Mt. Gox 在 7 月初向債權人分配價值超過 80 億美元的 BTC 以及德國出售其持有的大部分 BTC 所帶來的不良影響。

The timing of the sales, at a period of traditional low liquidity for digital assets, has had an unfavorable effect on prices, but Hougan says it is only a small blip in the grand scheme of things.

在傳統的數位資產流動性較低的時期，出售的時機對價格產生了不利影響，但Hougan表示，這只是宏偉計劃中的一個小插曲。

“Right now, one-off events are suppressing what I think would otherwise be a raging bull market,” Hougan said.

霍根說：“目前，一次性事件正在抑制我認為本來會是激烈的牛市。”

“Once the market digests these short-term liquidity shocks, the future looks bright indeed.”

“一旦市場消化了這些短期流動性衝擊，未來看起來確實光明。”