比特币 (BTC) 价格到年底可能飙升至 10 万美元，但通往六位数的道路预计不会一帆风顺

经过几周的热潮后，比特币可能会在年底飙升至 10 万美元，但通往六位数的道路预计不会一帆风顺。

Bitcoin’s price could still surge to $100,000 by the end of the year despite the recent price dip, according to Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan.

Bitwise 首席投资官 Matt Hougan 表示，尽管最近价格下跌，但到今年年底，比特币的价格仍可能飙升至 100,000 美元。

However, Hougan said in a public memo that the path to six figures is not expected to be straightforward.

然而，侯根在一份公开备忘录中表示，达到六位数的道路预计不会一帆风顺。

“The crypto market is facing a weird dynamic right now,” Hougan said. “All the short-term news is bad, and all the long-term news is good. The dichotomy is creating an incredible potential opportunity for long-term investors.”

“加密货币市场现在面临着一种奇怪的动态，”霍根说。 “所有短期消息都是坏消息，所有长期消息都是好消息。这种二分法正在为长期投资者创造令人难以置信的潜在机会。”

After trading well above the $60,000 mark for over two months, BTC slumped to lows of $57,000, sparking fears of the start of an extended bear market or a long-term sideways trading pattern. Hougan said that a bird’s eye view of the ecosystem reveals bright prospects for the future of Bitcoin and altcoins.

在远高于 60,000 美元大关两个多月后，BTC 跌至 57,000 美元低点，引发了人们对熊市延长或长期横盘交易模式开始的担忧。霍根表示，鸟瞰生态系统揭示了比特币和山寨币未来的光明前景。

“A bird’s-eye view of the crypto ecosystem shows that 2022 is shaping up to be a banner year for Bitcoin and altcoins despite the day-to-day market gyrations,” Hougan said in the memo.

Hougan 在备忘录中表示：“纵观加密货币生态系统，2022 年将成为比特币和山寨币的标志性一年，尽管市场每天都在波动。”

The CIO noted that the biggest growth indicator lies with spot Bitcoin ETPs, with inflows in the products breaking all existing records following their launch in January. Hougan opines that more inflows in the region of “billions” could make their way into ETPs after large wealth management platforms approve their use by the end of the year.

CIO 指出，最大的增长指标在于现货比特币 ETP，自 1 月份推出以来，该产品的流入量打破了所有现有记录。 Hougan 认为，在大型财富管理平台年底前批准使用 ETP 后，“数十亿”的更多资金可能会进入 ETP。

“The biggest growth story of 2022 is the launch of spot Bitcoin ETPs in the US,” Hougan said. “Inflows into these products have broken all records set by previous crypto ETPs, and they now total more than $3.5 billion in just six months.

“2022 年最大的增长故事是在美国推出现货比特币 ETP，”Hougan 说。 “这些产品的资金流入打破了之前加密货币 ETP 创下的所有记录，目前在短短六个月内总计超过 35 亿美元。

Although the popular belief is that the BTC halving has been priced in, Hougan argues that the asset has always surged by leaps and bounds in the months following the event. The memo predicts that 2024 will not be any different, and bulls can brace themselves for a rally to take them to six digits by the end of the year.

尽管人们普遍认为比特币减半已经被定价，但霍根认为，在减半事件发生后的几个月里，该资产一直在突飞猛进。该备忘录预测 2024 年不会有任何不同，多头可以做好准备迎接年底前将股价上涨至六位数的反弹。

“The narrative that the BTC halving is already priced in is a common refrain, but the data shows that the asset has rallied significantly in the months following the event,” Hougan said.

“关于比特币减半已经被定价的说法是一种常见的说法，但数据显示，该资产在减半事件发生后的几个月内大幅上涨，”Hougan 说。

“In 2016, BTC rose 300% from the halving in July to the year-end. In 2020, it rose 400% from the May halving to the December peak. If a similar dynamic plays out in 2024, following the April halving, the asset could rally to $100,000 by the end of the year.”

“2016年，BTC从7月减半到年底上涨了300%。 2020年，从5月减半到12月峰值上涨了400%。如果在 4 月份减半之后，2024 年出现类似的情况，该资产可能会在年底前上涨至 10 万美元。”

He buttressed his points by leaning on the government’s changing stance toward cryptocurrencies and the elevation of the topic as a front burner in the lead-up to the US presidential elections. Already, Republican candidate Donald Trump has publicly declared full support for BTC with several pundits noting that his victory at the polls could send asset prices through the roof.

他通过政府对加密货币立场的转变以及在美国总统选举前将这一话题提升为焦点来支持自己的观点。共和党候选人唐纳德·特朗普已经公开宣布全力支持比特币，一些专家指出，他在民意调查中的胜利可能会导致资产价格飙升。

“The government’s changing stance toward cryptocurrencies, and the elevation of the topic as a front burner in the lead-up to the US presidential elections, is also setting the stage for a potential surge to $100,000,” Hougan said.

Hougan 表示：“政府对加密货币立场的转变，以及美国总统大选前夕该话题被提升为热门话题，也为加密货币价格可能飙升至 10 万美元奠定了基础。”

“Donald Trump has already publicly declared full support for BTC, and several pundits have noted that his victory at the polls could send asset prices through the roof.”

“唐纳德·特朗普已经公开宣布全力支持比特币，一些专家指出，他在民意调查中的胜利可能会导致资产价格飙升。”

Hougan cites potential rate cuts by the US funds, steady growth rates in stablecoins, and the wading of financial behemoths into the space as reasons for a potential surge to $100K.

Hougan 指出，美国基金可能降息、稳定币的稳定增长率以及金融巨头涉足该领域是比特币价格可能飙升至 10 万美元的原因。

“A slew of headwinds in BTC’s pathDespite BTC’s upbeat long-term prospects, the asset has to contend with a wave of headwinds that threaten to push prices to new lows,” Hougan said.

“比特币发展道路上的一系列阻力尽管比特币的长期前景乐观，但该资产必须应对一波可能将价格推至新低的阻力，”Hougan 表示。

Traders are grappling with the unsavory effects of Mt. Gox distributing over $8 billion worth of BTC to creditors at the start of July and Germany’s sale of a chunk of its BTC holdings.

交易员正在努力应对 Mt. Gox 在 7 月初向债权人分配价值超过 80 亿美元的 BTC 以及德国出售其持有的大部分 BTC 所带来的不良影响。

The timing of the sales, at a period of traditional low liquidity for digital assets, has had an unfavorable effect on prices, but Hougan says it is only a small blip in the grand scheme of things.

在传统的数字资产流动性较低的时期，出售的时机对价格产生了不利影响，但Hougan表示，这只是宏伟计划中的一个小插曲。

“Right now, one-off events are suppressing what I think would otherwise be a raging bull market,” Hougan said.

霍根说：“目前，一次性事件正在抑制我认为本来会是激烈的牛市。”

“Once the market digests these short-term liquidity shocks, the future looks bright indeed.”

“一旦市场消化了这些短期流动性冲击，未来看起来确实光明。”