Bitcoin (BTC) Price Could Surge to $100K by Year-End, But the Path to Six Figures Is Not Expected to Be Straightforward

After a torrid couple of weeks, Bitcoin could surge to $100K by the end of the year, but the path to six figures is not expected to be straightforward.

Bitcoin’s price could still surge to $100,000 by the end of the year despite the recent price dip, according to Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan.

However, Hougan said in a public memo that the path to six figures is not expected to be straightforward.

“The crypto market is facing a weird dynamic right now,” Hougan said. “All the short-term news is bad, and all the long-term news is good. The dichotomy is creating an incredible potential opportunity for long-term investors.”

After trading well above the $60,000 mark for over two months, BTC slumped to lows of $57,000, sparking fears of the start of an extended bear market or a long-term sideways trading pattern. Hougan said that a bird’s eye view of the ecosystem reveals bright prospects for the future of Bitcoin and altcoins.

“A bird’s-eye view of the crypto ecosystem shows that 2022 is shaping up to be a banner year for Bitcoin and altcoins despite the day-to-day market gyrations,” Hougan said in the memo.

The CIO noted that the biggest growth indicator lies with spot Bitcoin ETPs, with inflows in the products breaking all existing records following their launch in January. Hougan opines that more inflows in the region of “billions” could make their way into ETPs after large wealth management platforms approve their use by the end of the year.

“The biggest growth story of 2022 is the launch of spot Bitcoin ETPs in the US,” Hougan said. “Inflows into these products have broken all records set by previous crypto ETPs, and they now total more than $3.5 billion in just six months.

Although the popular belief is that the BTC halving has been priced in, Hougan argues that the asset has always surged by leaps and bounds in the months following the event. The memo predicts that 2024 will not be any different, and bulls can brace themselves for a rally to take them to six digits by the end of the year.

“The narrative that the BTC halving is already priced in is a common refrain, but the data shows that the asset has rallied significantly in the months following the event,” Hougan said.

“In 2016, BTC rose 300% from the halving in July to the year-end. In 2020, it rose 400% from the May halving to the December peak. If a similar dynamic plays out in 2024, following the April halving, the asset could rally to $100,000 by the end of the year.”

He buttressed his points by leaning on the government’s changing stance toward cryptocurrencies and the elevation of the topic as a front burner in the lead-up to the US presidential elections. Already, Republican candidate Donald Trump has publicly declared full support for BTC with several pundits noting that his victory at the polls could send asset prices through the roof.

“The government’s changing stance toward cryptocurrencies, and the elevation of the topic as a front burner in the lead-up to the US presidential elections, is also setting the stage for a potential surge to $100,000,” Hougan said.

“Donald Trump has already publicly declared full support for BTC, and several pundits have noted that his victory at the polls could send asset prices through the roof.”

Hougan cites potential rate cuts by the US funds, steady growth rates in stablecoins, and the wading of financial behemoths into the space as reasons for a potential surge to $100K.

“A slew of headwinds in BTC’s pathDespite BTC’s upbeat long-term prospects, the asset has to contend with a wave of headwinds that threaten to push prices to new lows,” Hougan said.

Traders are grappling with the unsavory effects of Mt. Gox distributing over $8 billion worth of BTC to creditors at the start of July and Germany’s sale of a chunk of its BTC holdings.

The timing of the sales, at a period of traditional low liquidity for digital assets, has had an unfavorable effect on prices, but Hougan says it is only a small blip in the grand scheme of things.

“Right now, one-off events are suppressing what I think would otherwise be a raging bull market,” Hougan said.

“Once the market digests these short-term liquidity shocks, the future looks bright indeed.”