隨著市場成熟，比特幣[BTC]價格行為發生了巨大變化

在過去的八年中，隨著市場的成熟，比特幣[BTC]的價格行為發生了巨大變化。

Over the past eight years, Bitcoin [BTC] has seen a massive shift in its price behavior as the market matures.

在過去的八年中，隨著市場的成熟，比特幣[BTC]的價格行為發生了巨大變化。

With each cycle, BTC’s peak has formed at a lower multiple of its 2-year simple moving average (2Y SMA), reflecting shrinking volatility and a more stable market structure.

在每個週期中，BTC的峰值以其2年簡單移動平均線（2y SMA）的較低倍數形成，反映了萎縮的波動性和更穩定的市場結構。

From wild rallies to tempered surges

從狂野的集會到脾氣暴躁

Looking at previous cycles, Bitcoin’s early bull runs were explosive, with tops occurring at 15x the 2Y SMA according to the Alphractal.

從先前的周期看，比特幣的早期牛跑是爆炸性的，根據字母，頂部出現在15倍的2歲SMA上。

These explosive upswings signaled wild speculative growth, largely driven by a thin market and early adopters.

這些爆炸性的昇華標誌著狂野的投機增長，主要是由稀薄的市場和早期採用者驅動的。

However, from 2017, the market started changing as Bitcoin reached the global market with widespread consciousness. The crypto’s growth, although staggering, was highly subdued.

但是，從2017年開始，隨著比特幣以廣泛的意識進入全球市場，市場開始發生變化。加密貨幣的增長雖然令人震驚，但受到了高度柔和。

During this time, the top was reached around 10x the 2Y SMA, indicating high volatility amid growing maturity.

在此期間，頂部到達10倍左右的2年SMA，表明成熟度越來越高。

In 2021, institutional money flooded in. Yet, the cycle’s peak dropped again, first hitting 5×, then reversing around 2.65× the 2Y SMA.

在2021年，機構資金被淹沒了。然而，週期的高峰再次下降，首先擊中5倍，然後倒入2.65×2y SMA左右。

This marked a structural shift: Bitcoin was no longer just a trade—it was becoming a macro asset.

這標誌著結構性的轉變：比特幣不再只是一項貿易，而是宏觀資產。

2.65× remains the mark—Can BTC moonshot to $159K?

2.65×仍然是標記 - BTC Moonshot可以達到$ 159K？

In the most recent cycle, Bitcoin has failed to surpass the 2.65× multiple again, showing a narrowing of gains and indicating a more mature asset.

在最近的周期中，比特幣未能再次超過2.65×多倍數，顯示出收益的縮小並表明資產更加成熟。

Currently, the 2Y SMA ×2.65 level reflects lower volatility, deeper liquidity, and a mature user base. That level now sits around $159,000. If BTC makes a major upswing, $159k will act as the next key resistance.

目前，2y SMA×2.65水平反映了較低的波動性，更深的流動性和成熟的用戶群。現在，這個水平位於159,000美元左右。如果BTC進行了重大上漲，那麼$ 159K將充當下一個關鍵阻力。

As observed above, although Bitcoin is currently experiencing diminishing cycle tops, there’s still more room for growth.

如上所述，儘管比特幣目前正在越來越多的周期頂部，但仍有更多的增長空間。

Looking at Bitcoin’s MVRV, it’s currently revolving around 2.4, signaling that the market is still below euphoria territory.

查看比特幣的MVRV，目前在2.4左右旋轉，這表明市場仍低於欣快的領土。

Historically, Bitcoin tops have emerged around 3.5 to 4.0. Thus, at current levels, there’s still more room for growth before the cycle tops.

從歷史上看，比特幣頂部出現在3.5至4.0左右。因此，在當前水平上，在循環頂部之前還有更多的增長空間。

Adding to that, NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) remains in the belief/denial zone—not yet in greed or euphoria.

除此之外，NUPL（未實現的盈利/損失）仍在信念/否認區域中，而不是貪婪或欣快感。

With significant maturity in market behavior, BTC holders are currently unlikely to pursue extreme profit taking as they expect higher prices for the current cycle.

BTC持有人目前不太可能追求極高的利潤，因為他們預計當前週期的價格更高，因此BTC持有人目前不太可能追求極高的利潤。

Bottom line

底線

Therefore, although future cycles can no longer experience a 15x surge, there’s still more room for growth, where Bitcoin is more stable, less volatile, and reliable as an investment.

因此，儘管未來的循環再也無法體驗到15倍的激增，但增長的餘地還有更多，因為比特幣更穩定，易波動性和可靠作為一項投資。

In the prevailing market, BTC still has more room for growth. If the momentum of the cycle holds and BTC surpasses $110k, we could see a surge to $159k levels.

在盛行的市場中，BTC仍然有更多的增長空間。如果週期的勢頭穩定，而BTC的勢頭超過$ 110k，我們可以看到漲幅達到159k美元。

In the short term, however, this is unlikely, but since the market is yet to reach a top, this level could be where markets cool down for the current cycle.

但是，在短期內，這不太可能，但是由於市場尚未達到最高，因此該水平可能是市場在當前週期中冷卻的地方。