随着市场成熟，比特币[BTC]价格行为发生了巨大变化

在过去的八年中，随着市场的成熟，比特币[BTC]的价格行为发生了巨大变化。

Over the past eight years, Bitcoin [BTC] has seen a massive shift in its price behavior as the market matures.

在过去的八年中，随着市场的成熟，比特币[BTC]的价格行为发生了巨大变化。

With each cycle, BTC’s peak has formed at a lower multiple of its 2-year simple moving average (2Y SMA), reflecting shrinking volatility and a more stable market structure.

在每个周期中，BTC的峰值以其2年简单移动平均线（2y SMA）的较低倍数形成，反映了萎缩的波动性和更稳定的市场结构。

From wild rallies to tempered surges

从狂野的集会到脾气暴躁

Looking at previous cycles, Bitcoin’s early bull runs were explosive, with tops occurring at 15x the 2Y SMA according to the Alphractal.

从先前的周期看，比特币的早期牛跑是爆炸性的，根据字母，顶部出现在15倍的2岁SMA上。

These explosive upswings signaled wild speculative growth, largely driven by a thin market and early adopters.

这些爆炸性的升华标志着狂野的投机增长，主要是由稀薄的市场和早期采用者驱动的。

However, from 2017, the market started changing as Bitcoin reached the global market with widespread consciousness. The crypto’s growth, although staggering, was highly subdued.

但是，从2017年开始，随着比特币以广泛的意识进入全球市场，市场开始发生变化。加密货币的增长虽然令人震惊，但受到了高度柔和。

During this time, the top was reached around 10x the 2Y SMA, indicating high volatility amid growing maturity.

在此期间，顶部到达10倍左右的2年SMA，表明成熟度越来越高。

In 2021, institutional money flooded in. Yet, the cycle’s peak dropped again, first hitting 5×, then reversing around 2.65× the 2Y SMA.

在2021年，机构资金被淹没了。然而，周期的高峰再次下降，首先击中5倍，然后倒入2.65×2y SMA左右。

This marked a structural shift: Bitcoin was no longer just a trade—it was becoming a macro asset.

这标志着结构性的转变：比特币不再只是一项贸易，而是宏观资产。

2.65× remains the mark—Can BTC moonshot to $159K?

2.65×仍然是标记 - BTC Moonshot可以达到$ 159K？

In the most recent cycle, Bitcoin has failed to surpass the 2.65× multiple again, showing a narrowing of gains and indicating a more mature asset.

在最近的周期中，比特币未能再次超过2.65×多倍数，显示出收益的缩小并表明资产更加成熟。

Currently, the 2Y SMA ×2.65 level reflects lower volatility, deeper liquidity, and a mature user base. That level now sits around $159,000. If BTC makes a major upswing, $159k will act as the next key resistance.

目前，2y SMA×2.65水平反映了较低的波动性，更深的流动性和成熟的用户群。现在，这个水平位于159,000美元左右。如果BTC进行了重大上涨，那么$ 159K将充当下一个关键阻力。

As observed above, although Bitcoin is currently experiencing diminishing cycle tops, there’s still more room for growth.

如上所述，尽管比特币目前正在越来越多的周期顶部，但仍有更多的增长空间。

Looking at Bitcoin’s MVRV, it’s currently revolving around 2.4, signaling that the market is still below euphoria territory.

查看比特币的MVRV，目前在2.4左右旋转，这表明市场仍低于欣快的领土。

Historically, Bitcoin tops have emerged around 3.5 to 4.0. Thus, at current levels, there’s still more room for growth before the cycle tops.

从历史上看，比特币顶部出现在3.5至4.0左右。因此，在当前水平上，在循环顶部之前还有更多的增长空间。

Adding to that, NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) remains in the belief/denial zone—not yet in greed or euphoria.

除此之外，NUPL（未实现的盈利/损失）仍然存在于信念/否认区域，而不是在贪婪或欣快感中。

With significant maturity in market behavior, BTC holders are currently unlikely to pursue extreme profit taking as they expect higher prices for the current cycle.

BTC持有人目前不太可能追求极高的利润，因为他们预计当前周期的价格更高，因此BTC持有人目前不太可能追求极高的利润。

Bottom line

底线

Therefore, although future cycles can no longer experience a 15x surge, there’s still more room for growth, where Bitcoin is more stable, less volatile, and reliable as an investment.

因此，尽管未来的循环再也无法体验到15倍的激增，但增长的余地还有更多，因为比特币更稳定，易波动性和可靠作为一项投资。

In the prevailing market, BTC still has more room for growth. If the momentum of the cycle holds and BTC surpasses $110k, we could see a surge to $159k levels.

在盛行的市场中，BTC仍然有更多的增长空间。如果周期的势头稳定，而BTC的势头超过$ 110k，我们可以看到涨幅达到159k美元。

In the short term, however, this is unlikely, but since the market is yet to reach a top, this level could be where markets cool down for the current cycle.

但是，在短期内，这不太可能，但是由于市场尚未达到最高，因此该水平可能是市场在当前周期中冷却的地方。