比特幣（BTC）價格分析：區間波動並等待聯準會降息觸發

比特幣價格為 58,050 美元，比 7 天前下跌 2.4%，是的，仍然停留在 2 月以來的同一區間。

Bitcoin’s price dropped further on Monday, continuing a trend that began last week and showing little sign of abating. The world’s largest cryptocurrency was trading at $58,050 at press time, down 2.4% over the past seven days.

比特幣價格週一進一步下跌，延續了上週開始的趨勢，幾乎沒有減弱的跡象。截至發稿時，全球最大的加密貨幣交易價格為 58,050 美元，過去 7 天下跌 2.4%。

Bitcoin has remained stuck in a narrow range since February, frustrating investors who were hoping for a bull run this year. But rising fears of a recession could lead to a deeper market correction, Bitfinex analysts wrote in their analysis this week.

自2月以來，比特幣一直徘徊在窄幅區間，令原本希望今年多頭市場的投資者感到沮喪。但 Bitfinex 分析師在本週的分析中寫道，對經濟衰退的擔憂加劇可能會導致市場進一步調整。

If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates and the economy enters a recession at the same time, the analysts predict that Bitcoin (BTC) could experience a 15%-20% drop, potentially bringing prices down to the $40,000-$50,000 range.

如果聯準會降息且經濟同時進入衰退，分析師預測比特幣（BTC）可能會下跌 15%-20%，價格可能會跌至 40,000-50,000 美元區間。

According to the analysts, a 25 basis point rate cut could indicate the beginning of a standard easing cycle, which would be positive for risk assets and might help BTC prices in the long run as recession worries subside. This would indicate the Fed’s confidence in the economic outlook, possibly averting a harsh downturn. Conversely, a more aggressive 50 basis point cut could initially spike BTC prices by 5%-8%, but these gains might be short-lived as recession concerns could quickly negate the rise.

分析師表示，降息 25 個基點可能預示著標準寬鬆週期的開始，這對風險資產有利，並且隨著衰退擔憂消退，長期來看可能有助於 BTC 價格。這將顯示聯準會對經濟前景的信心，可能避免嚴重的衰退。相反，更激進的 50 個基點降息最初可能會使 BTC 價格上漲 5%-8%，但這些漲幅可能是短暫的，因為對經濟衰退的擔憂可能很快就會抵消漲幅。

On Tuesday, U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw a continuation in net outflows, signaling a significant downturn in investor sentiment. Data from SosoValue showed that 12 spot bitcoin ETFs experienced collective outflows of $287.78 million, marking the highest since May 1. Among these ETFs, BlackRock’s IBIT, which leads in net assets, recorded no changes in flows for the day.

週二，美國現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）淨流出持續，顯示投資者情緒大幅下滑。 SosoValue數據顯示，12隻現貨比特幣ETF集體流出2.8778億美元，創5月1日以來最高。

Grayscale’s GBTC, the second-largest in size, witnessed outflows of $50.39 million. Fidelity’s FBTC saw the most significant withdrawals, with $162.26 million exiting the fund. Both Ark and 21Shares’ ARKB, along with Bitwise’s BITB, also experienced notable outflows, totaling $33.6 million and $24.96 million, respectively. Other ETFs managed by firms like VanEck, Valkyrie, Invesco, and Franklin Templeton reported smaller losses.

規模第二大的灰階公司 GBTC 流出 5,039 萬美元。富達 (Fidelity) 的 FBTC 撤資金額最大，退出該基金的資金達 1.6226 億美元。 Ark 和 21Shares 的 ARKB 以及 Bitwise 的 BITB 也經歷了顯著的資金外流，資金流出總額分別為 3,360 萬美元和 2,496 萬美元。 VanEck、Valkyrie、Invesco 和 Franklin Templeton 等公司管理的其他 ETF 損失較小。

These substantial outflows occurred against the backdrop of a broader market sell-off, driven by disappointing ISM manufacturing data in the U.S., which indicated a contraction with a reading of 47.2% for August, albeit a slight improvement from July.

這些大量資金外流是在美國令人失望的 ISM 製造業數據推動的更廣泛市場拋售的背景下發生的，該數據表明 8 月份製造業收縮，儘管比 7 月份略有改善，但為 47.2%。

Historically, September has shown to be one of the weakest months for crypto, adding another layer of complexity to the investment landscape. This month is in fact, the worst for Bitcoin in terms of seasonality. Despite this, 2015, 2016, and 2023 data show that Bitcoin’s price was able to see surges in September as well, of 2%, 6%, and almost 4% respectively. As revealed by the historical price moves of Bitcoin, from 2013 until 2023, September was bearish for BTC, apart from the three exceptions mentioned above. Even if, overall, BTC’s seasonality shows that this month has been the worst for the digital asset, history might not necessarily repeat itself. This month’s potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could provide a break from this trend, enhancing Bitcoin’s appeal as a store of value amidst increased dollar liquidity. Here’s hoping.

從歷史上看，九月已被證明是加密貨幣最疲軟的月份之一，這為投資環境增添了另一層複雜性。事實上，就季節性而言，本月是比特幣最糟糕的月份。儘管如此，2015年、2016年和2023年的數據顯示，比特幣的價格在9月也出現了飆升，分別上漲了2%、6%和近4%。從比特幣的歷史價格走勢來看，從2013年到2023年，除了上述三個例外之外，9月對比特幣來說都是利空的。即使總體而言，比特幣的季節性表明本月是該數位資產最糟糕的月份，但歷史也不一定會重演。聯準會本月可能降息，可能會打破這一趨勢，在美元流動性增加的情況下增強比特幣作為價值儲存手段的吸引力。這裡有希望。

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a barometer of market sentiment towards Bitcoin and other significant cryptocurrencies, dipped into deep “fear” territory, registering a low of 26 out of 100. This index measures market enthusiasm, where zero indicates extreme fear and 100 signifies extreme greed. The positive from this signal, is that the lower the fear signal, the more likely it is we are close to a local bottom.

加密貨幣恐懼與貪婪指數是比特幣和其他重要加密貨幣的市場情緒晴雨表，該指數陷入了深度「恐懼」領域，最低為26（滿分100）。 100 表示極度恐懼極度的貪婪。這個訊號的正面意義在於，恐懼訊號越低，我們就越有可能接近局部底部。

However, the facts are clear. This cycle is the longest it has taken for Bitcoin to reach a new all time high. Bitcoin is experiencing this prolonged period before reaching a new all-time high following its latest halving, wrote prominent trader Peter Brandt. In his analysis on X, Brandt pointed out that Bitcoin’s 2021 peak of $69,000 still holds as the record high when adjusted for inflation.

然而，事實是清楚的。這個週期是比特幣達到歷史新高所需的最長週期。著名交易員彼得·布蘭特（Peter Brandt）寫道，比特幣在最近一次減半後，正在經歷這段漫長的時期，然後再創歷史新高。 Brandt 在對 X 的分析中指出，經過通貨膨脹調整後，比特幣 2021 年的峰值 69,000 美元仍然是歷史新高。

Bitcoin’s Lack of Energy

比特幣缺乏能量

Brandt labeled Bitcoin’s recent price behavior as suffering from a “lack of energy,” highlighting the frustration among bulls and new investors due to the inability to surpass the $73,800 mark achieved in mid-March. Despite the long passage of time since the last block subsidy halving in April, Bitcoin has yet to embark on a new phase of price discovery, marking a record duration without significant price movement since that event.

Brandt 將比特幣最近的價格行為稱為“缺乏活力”，突顯了多頭和新投資者因無法突破 3 月中旬達到的 73,800 美元大關而感到沮喪。儘管自 4 月上次區塊補貼減半以來已經過去了很長一段時間，但比特幣尚未進入價格發現的新階段，創下了自該事件以來沒有重大價格波動的創紀錄持續時間。

Brandt takes a unique approach to analyzing Bitcoin cycles

布蘭特採用獨特的方法來分析比特幣週期