比特币（BTC）价格分析：区间波动并等待美联储降息触发

比特币价格为 58,050 美元，比 7 天前下跌 2.4%，是的，仍然停留在 2 月份以来的同一区间内。

Bitcoin’s price dropped further on Monday, continuing a trend that began last week and showing little sign of abating. The world’s largest cryptocurrency was trading at $58,050 at press time, down 2.4% over the past seven days.

比特币价格周一进一步下跌，延续了上周开始的趋势，并且几乎没有减弱的迹象。截至发稿时，全球最大的加密货币交易价格为 58,050 美元，过去 7 天下跌 2.4%。

Bitcoin has remained stuck in a narrow range since February, frustrating investors who were hoping for a bull run this year. But rising fears of a recession could lead to a deeper market correction, Bitfinex analysts wrote in their analysis this week.

自2月份以来，比特币一直徘徊在窄幅区间，令原本希望今年牛市的投资者感到沮丧。但 Bitfinex 分析师在本周的分析中写道，对经济衰退的担忧加剧可能会导致市场进一步调整。

If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates and the economy enters a recession at the same time, the analysts predict that Bitcoin (BTC) could experience a 15%-20% drop, potentially bringing prices down to the $40,000-$50,000 range.

如果美联储降息且经济同时进入衰退，分析师预测比特币（BTC）可能会下跌 15%-20%，价格可能会跌至 40,000-50,000 美元区间。

According to the analysts, a 25 basis point rate cut could indicate the beginning of a standard easing cycle, which would be positive for risk assets and might help BTC prices in the long run as recession worries subside. This would indicate the Fed’s confidence in the economic outlook, possibly averting a harsh downturn. Conversely, a more aggressive 50 basis point cut could initially spike BTC prices by 5%-8%, but these gains might be short-lived as recession concerns could quickly negate the rise.

分析师表示，降息 25 个基点可能预示着标准宽松周期的开始，这对风险资产有利，并且随着衰退担忧消退，从长远来看可能有助于 BTC 价格。这将表明美联储对经济前景的信心，可能避免严重的衰退。相反，更激进的 50 个基点降息最初可能会使 BTC 价格上涨 5%-8%，但这些涨幅可能是短暂的，因为对经济衰退的担忧可能会很快抵消涨幅。

On Tuesday, U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw a continuation in net outflows, signaling a significant downturn in investor sentiment. Data from SosoValue showed that 12 spot bitcoin ETFs experienced collective outflows of $287.78 million, marking the highest since May 1. Among these ETFs, BlackRock’s IBIT, which leads in net assets, recorded no changes in flows for the day.

周二，美国现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）净流出持续，表明投资者情绪大幅下滑。 SosoValue数据显示，12只现货比特币ETF集体流出2.8778亿美元，创5月1日以来最高。其中，净资产领先的贝莱德IBIT当日流量没有变化。

Grayscale’s GBTC, the second-largest in size, witnessed outflows of $50.39 million. Fidelity’s FBTC saw the most significant withdrawals, with $162.26 million exiting the fund. Both Ark and 21Shares’ ARKB, along with Bitwise’s BITB, also experienced notable outflows, totaling $33.6 million and $24.96 million, respectively. Other ETFs managed by firms like VanEck, Valkyrie, Invesco, and Franklin Templeton reported smaller losses.

规模第二大的灰度公司 GBTC 流出 5039 万美元。富达 (Fidelity) 的 FBTC 撤资金额最大，退出该基金的资金达 1.6226 亿美元。 Ark 和 21Shares 的 ARKB 以及 Bitwise 的 BITB 也经历了显着的资金外流，资金流出总额分别为 3360 万美元和 2496 万美元。 VanEck、Valkyrie、Invesco 和 Franklin Templeton 等公司管理的其他 ETF 损失较小。

These substantial outflows occurred against the backdrop of a broader market sell-off, driven by disappointing ISM manufacturing data in the U.S., which indicated a contraction with a reading of 47.2% for August, albeit a slight improvement from July.

这些大量资金外流是在美国令人失望的 ISM 制造业数据推动的更广泛市场抛售的背景下发生的，该数据表明 8 月份制造业收缩，尽管比 7 月份略有改善，但为 47.2%。

Historically, September has shown to be one of the weakest months for crypto, adding another layer of complexity to the investment landscape. This month is in fact, the worst for Bitcoin in terms of seasonality. Despite this, 2015, 2016, and 2023 data show that Bitcoin’s price was able to see surges in September as well, of 2%, 6%, and almost 4% respectively. As revealed by the historical price moves of Bitcoin, from 2013 until 2023, September was bearish for BTC, apart from the three exceptions mentioned above. Even if, overall, BTC’s seasonality shows that this month has been the worst for the digital asset, history might not necessarily repeat itself. This month’s potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could provide a break from this trend, enhancing Bitcoin’s appeal as a store of value amidst increased dollar liquidity. Here’s hoping.

从历史上看，九月已被证明是加密货币最疲软的月份之一，这给投资环境增添了另一层复杂性。事实上，就季节性而言，本月是比特币最糟糕的月份。尽管如此，2015年、2016年和2023年的数据显示，比特币的价格在9月份也出现了飙升，分别上涨了2%、6%和近4%。从比特币的历史价格走势来看，从2013年到2023年，除了上述三个例外之外，9月份对比特币来说都是利空的。即使总体而言，比特币的季节性表明本月是该数字资产最糟糕的月份，但历史也不一定会重演。美联储本月可能降息，可能会打破这一趋势，在美元流动性增加的情况下增强比特币作为价值储存手段的吸引力。这里有希望。

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a barometer of market sentiment towards Bitcoin and other significant cryptocurrencies, dipped into deep “fear” territory, registering a low of 26 out of 100. This index measures market enthusiasm, where zero indicates extreme fear and 100 signifies extreme greed. The positive from this signal, is that the lower the fear signal, the more likely it is we are close to a local bottom.

加密货币恐惧与贪婪指数是比特币和其他重要加密货币的市场情绪晴雨表，该指数陷入了深度“恐惧”领域，最低为 26（满分 100）。该指数衡量市场热情，其中 0 表示极度恐惧，100 表示极度恐惧极度的贪婪。这个信号的积极意义在于，恐惧信号越低，我们就越有可能接近局部底部。

However, the facts are clear. This cycle is the longest it has taken for Bitcoin to reach a new all time high. Bitcoin is experiencing this prolonged period before reaching a new all-time high following its latest halving, wrote prominent trader Peter Brandt. In his analysis on X, Brandt pointed out that Bitcoin’s 2021 peak of $69,000 still holds as the record high when adjusted for inflation.

然而，事实是清楚的。这个周期是比特币达到历史新高所需的最长周期。著名交易员彼得·勃兰特（Peter Brandt）写道，比特币在最近一次减半后，正在经历这段漫长的时期，然后再创历史新高。 Brandt 在对 X 的分析中指出，经过通货膨胀调整后，比特币 2021 年的峰值 69,000 美元仍然是历史新高。

Bitcoin’s Lack of Energy

比特币缺乏能量

Brandt labeled Bitcoin’s recent price behavior as suffering from a “lack of energy,” highlighting the frustration among bulls and new investors due to the inability to surpass the $73,800 mark achieved in mid-March. Despite the long passage of time since the last block subsidy halving in April, Bitcoin has yet to embark on a new phase of price discovery, marking a record duration without significant price movement since that event.

Brandt 将比特币最近的价格行为称为“缺乏活力”，突显了多头和新投资者因无法突破 3 月中旬达到的 73,800 美元大关而感到沮丧。尽管自 4 月份上次区块补贴减半以来已经过去了很长一段时间，但比特币尚未进入价格发现的新阶段，创下了自该事件以来没有出现重大价格波动的创纪录持续时间。

Brandt takes a unique approach to analyzing Bitcoin cycles

布兰特采用独特的方法来分析比特币周期