隨著全球衰退的擔憂，高利率和關稅緊張局勢的增長，比特幣（BTC）在嚴重的壓力下

隨著全球衰退的擔憂，高利率和不斷增長的關稅緊張局勢激發了投資者的信心，比特幣承受著嚴重的壓力。

Bitcoin is facing serious pressure as global recession fears, high interest rates, and increasing tariff tensions are shaking investor confidence.

隨著全球衰退的恐懼，高利率和不斷增加的關稅緊張局勢正在激起投資者的信心，比特幣正面臨嚴重的壓力。

According to Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mike McGlone, trader Scott Melker, and market analyst Gareth Soloway on the latest Altcoin Daily podcast, Bitcoin could be headed toward another major crash if the overall economic outlook worsens.

據彭博情報公司的邁克·麥格隆（Mike McGlone），商人斯科特·梅爾克（Scott Melker）和市場分析師加雷斯·索洛威（Gareth Soloway）的說法，如果總體經濟前景惡化，則比特幣可能會朝著另一個重大的崩潰。

McGlone, a senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg, said in the podcast episode that if the S&P 500 drops sharply to around 4,000 points and the world slips deeper into recession, then Bitcoin could fall to $10,000.

彭博社的高級商品策略師麥格隆在播客中說，如果標準普爾500指數急劇下降至4,000點左右，而全球將陷入衰退，那麼比特幣可能會跌至10,000美元。

The global economy is showing concerning signs of deflation, with key indicators flashing red, McGlone added. The U.S. stock market is now trading far above GDP levels, and the S&P 500 is no longer moving in sync with global markets—a pattern also seen before the market crashes in the U.S. (1929) and Japan (1989).

McGlone補充說，全球經濟顯示出關於通縮的跡象，關鍵指標閃爍紅色。現在，美國股票市場的交易遠高於GDP水平，標準普爾500標準普爾不再與全球市場同步，在美國（1929年）和日本（1989）市場崩潰之前也看到了這種模式。

Slow economic growth, weaker trade caused by tariffs, and falling prices in oil and Chinese bonds are all adding to the pressure.

經濟增長緩慢，關稅造成的貿易疲軟以及石油和中國債券的價格下跌都增加了壓力。

According to McGlone, Bitcoin is no longer moving closely with stocks and other risk assets like it used to. While gold prices are showing strength and potential to rise further, both Bitcoin and equities are struggling to maintain their gains.

據McGlone稱，比特幣不再與股票和其他風險資產緊密相關。儘管黃金價格表現出力量和進一步上升的潛力，但比特幣和股票都在努力維持收益。

This shift in market behavior is also evident in the crypto ETFs, which are now showing signs of high-risk assets rather than acting as safe havens like many expected.

在加密ETF中，市場行為的這種轉變也很明顯，現在它顯示出高風險資產的跡象，而不是像許多人一樣充當安全避風港。

Another warning sign is that the gold-to-silver ratio has climbed above 100—a level often seen before recessions—which is adding to the cautious mood in the markets.

另一個警告信號是，黃金與銀色的比率已攀升至100層以上（經常在衰退之前經常看到的水平），這增加了市場中謹慎的態度。

If the S&P 500 does fall to 4,000, McGlone believes Bitcoin could return to its pre-pandemic average of around $10,000. That price also matches its 200-week exponential moving average and its long-term fair value range.

如果標準普爾500指數確實降至4,000，那麼麥格隆認為比特幣可能會恢復到其大少年平均值約10,000美元。該價格還與其200週的指數移動平均線和長期公允價值範圍相匹配。

Looking at the Bright Side

看著光明的一面

One Altcoin Daily analyst expressed a more optimistic view, countering the bearish predictions. While they agree that a drop to $20k is possible in a deep recession scenario, they highlighted that Bitcoin has shown strength during recent corrections.

一位Altcoin每日分析師表達了更樂觀的看法，反對看跌的預測。儘管他們同意在深層衰退的情況下可能會降至20k美元，但他們強調，在最近的更正期間，比特幣表現出了強度。

Despite a 10% fall in the S&P, Bitcoin hasn’t retested previous highs—a sign of resilience as it's managing to hold onto gains despite market volatility.

儘管標準普爾幣降低了10％，但比特幣尚未重新測量以前的高點，這是彈性的跡象，因為儘管市場波動，但它仍可以保持收益。

Moreover, with global liquidity at an all-time high—thanks to rate cuts and quantitative easing outside the U.S.—a major collapse seems less likely. Unless Bitcoin breaks clearly below $69,000, they don’t expect new lows anytime soon.

此外，隨著全球流動性在歷史悠久的高潮中（感謝削減和降低美國以外的量化），這一重大崩潰似乎較小。除非比特幣明顯低於69,000美元，否則他們不會期望很快新的低點。