Bitcoin (BTC) Under Serious Pressure as Global Recession Fears, High Interest Rates, and Growing Tariff Tensions

Bitcoin is under serious pressure as global recession fears, high interest rates, and growing tariff tensions shake investor confidence.

Bitcoin is facing serious pressure as global recession fears, high interest rates, and increasing tariff tensions are shaking investor confidence.

According to Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mike McGlone, trader Scott Melker, and market analyst Gareth Soloway on the latest Altcoin Daily podcast, Bitcoin could be headed toward another major crash if the overall economic outlook worsens.

McGlone, a senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg, said in the podcast episode that if the S&P 500 drops sharply to around 4,000 points and the world slips deeper into recession, then Bitcoin could fall to $10,000.

The global economy is showing concerning signs of deflation, with key indicators flashing red, McGlone added. The U.S. stock market is now trading far above GDP levels, and the S&P 500 is no longer moving in sync with global markets—a pattern also seen before the market crashes in the U.S. (1929) and Japan (1989).

Slow economic growth, weaker trade caused by tariffs, and falling prices in oil and Chinese bonds are all adding to the pressure.

According to McGlone, Bitcoin is no longer moving closely with stocks and other risk assets like it used to. While gold prices are showing strength and potential to rise further, both Bitcoin and equities are struggling to maintain their gains.

This shift in market behavior is also evident in the crypto ETFs, which are now showing signs of high-risk assets rather than acting as safe havens like many expected.

Another warning sign is that the gold-to-silver ratio has climbed above 100—a level often seen before recessions—which is adding to the cautious mood in the markets.

If the S&P 500 does fall to 4,000, McGlone believes Bitcoin could return to its pre-pandemic average of around $10,000. That price also matches its 200-week exponential moving average and its long-term fair value range.

Looking at the Bright Side

One Altcoin Daily analyst expressed a more optimistic view, countering the bearish predictions. While they agree that a drop to $20k is possible in a deep recession scenario, they highlighted that Bitcoin has shown strength during recent corrections.

Despite a 10% fall in the S&P, Bitcoin hasn’t retested previous highs—a sign of resilience as it's managing to hold onto gains despite market volatility.

Moreover, with global liquidity at an all-time high—thanks to rate cuts and quantitative easing outside the U.S.—a major collapse seems less likely. Unless Bitcoin breaks clearly below $69,000, they don’t expect new lows anytime soon.