随着全球衰退的担忧，高利率和关税紧张局势的增长，比特币（BTC）在严重的压力下

随着全球衰退的担忧，高利率和不断增长的关税紧张局势激发了投资者的信心，比特币承受着严重的压力。

Bitcoin is facing serious pressure as global recession fears, high interest rates, and increasing tariff tensions are shaking investor confidence.

随着全球衰退的恐惧，高利率和不断增加的关税紧张局势正在激起投资者的信心，比特币正面临严重的压力。

According to Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mike McGlone, trader Scott Melker, and market analyst Gareth Soloway on the latest Altcoin Daily podcast, Bitcoin could be headed toward another major crash if the overall economic outlook worsens.

据彭博情报公司的迈克·麦格隆（Mike McGlone），商人斯科特·梅尔克（Scott Melker）和市场分析师加雷斯·索洛威（Gareth Soloway）的说法，如果总体经济前景恶化，则比特币可能会朝着另一个重大的崩溃。

McGlone, a senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg, said in the podcast episode that if the S&P 500 drops sharply to around 4,000 points and the world slips deeper into recession, then Bitcoin could fall to $10,000.

彭博社的高级商品策略师麦格隆在播客中说，如果标准普尔500指数急剧下降至4,000点左右，而全球将陷入衰退，那么比特币可能会跌至10,000美元。

The global economy is showing concerning signs of deflation, with key indicators flashing red, McGlone added. The U.S. stock market is now trading far above GDP levels, and the S&P 500 is no longer moving in sync with global markets—a pattern also seen before the market crashes in the U.S. (1929) and Japan (1989).

McGlone补充说，全球经济显示出关于通缩的迹象，关键指标闪烁红色。现在，美国股票市场的交易远高于GDP水平，标准普尔500标准普尔不再与全球市场同步，在美国（1929年）和日本（1989）市场崩溃之前也看到了这种模式。

Slow economic growth, weaker trade caused by tariffs, and falling prices in oil and Chinese bonds are all adding to the pressure.

经济增长缓慢，关税造成的贸易疲软以及石油和中国债券的价格下跌都增加了压力。

According to McGlone, Bitcoin is no longer moving closely with stocks and other risk assets like it used to. While gold prices are showing strength and potential to rise further, both Bitcoin and equities are struggling to maintain their gains.

据McGlone称，比特币不再与股票和其他风险资产紧密相关。尽管黄金价格表现出力量和进一步上升的潜力，但比特币和股票都在努力维持收益。

This shift in market behavior is also evident in the crypto ETFs, which are now showing signs of high-risk assets rather than acting as safe havens like many expected.

在加密ETF中，市场行为的这种转变也很明显，现在它显示出高风险资产的迹象，而不是像许多人一样充当安全避风港。

Another warning sign is that the gold-to-silver ratio has climbed above 100—a level often seen before recessions—which is adding to the cautious mood in the markets.

另一个警告信号是，黄金与银色的比率已攀升至100层以上（经常在衰退之前经常看到的水平），这增加了市场中谨慎的态度。

If the S&P 500 does fall to 4,000, McGlone believes Bitcoin could return to its pre-pandemic average of around $10,000. That price also matches its 200-week exponential moving average and its long-term fair value range.

如果标准普尔500指数确实降至4,000，那么麦格隆认为比特币可能会恢复到其大少年平均值约10,000美元。该价格还与其200周的指数移动平均线和长期公允价值范围相匹配。

Looking at the Bright Side

看着光明的一面

One Altcoin Daily analyst expressed a more optimistic view, countering the bearish predictions. While they agree that a drop to $20k is possible in a deep recession scenario, they highlighted that Bitcoin has shown strength during recent corrections.

一位Altcoin每日分析师表达了更乐观的看法，反对看跌的预测。尽管他们同意在深层衰退的情况下可能会降至20k美元，但他们强调，在最近的更正期间，比特币表现出了强度。

Despite a 10% fall in the S&P, Bitcoin hasn’t retested previous highs—a sign of resilience as it's managing to hold onto gains despite market volatility.

尽管标准普尔币降低了10％，但比特币尚未重新测量以前的高点，这是弹性的迹象，因为尽管市场波动，但它仍可以保持收益。

Moreover, with global liquidity at an all-time high—thanks to rate cuts and quantitative easing outside the U.S.—a major collapse seems less likely. Unless Bitcoin breaks clearly below $69,000, they don’t expect new lows anytime soon.

此外，随着全球流动性在历史悠久的高潮中（感谢削减和降低美国以外的量化），这一重大崩溃似乎较小。除非比特币明显低于69,000美元，否则他们不会期望很快新的低点。