比特幣（BTC）一直處於明確定義的看漲結構中

即使在過去幾周中有很多價格行動，短期持有人似乎表現出了很多克制。

Bitcoin (BTC) has been persisting in a well-defined bullish structure, but recent activity in spot and derivatives markets suggests a temporary cooling-off phase.

比特幣（BTC）一直在明確的看漲結構中持續存在，但是最近的活動和衍生品市場的活動表明暫時的冷卻階段。

Even though there’s been plenty of price action over the past several weeks, short-term holders seem to be showing quite a bit of restraint. Broader market data implies that we’re taking a strategic pause rather than experiencing a sentiment shift.

即使在過去幾周中有很多價格行動，短期持有人似乎表現出了很多克制。更廣泛的市場數據意味著我們正在進行戰略性停頓，而不是經歷情感轉變。

Although Bitcoin hit the $110K recently, several important indicators are now signaling a possible short-term pullback — what could be a perfectly healthy pause in an otherwise strong uptrend. At this point, it’s the $120K our eyes are most glued to, as this potential psychological milestone could trigger all kinds of renewed volatility, not to mention some profit-taking behavior.

儘管比特幣最近達到了11萬美元，但現在有幾個重要的指標表明可能的短期回調可能是在原本強大的上升趨勢中完全健康的停頓。在這一點上，這是我們的眼睛最多的12萬美元，因為這種潛在的心理里程碑可能會觸發各種新的波動性，更不用說某些利潤的行為了。

Over the past 24 hours, Short-Term Holders have been selling an average of around 21K BTC via centralized exchanges (CEX), which is below the historical average level of selling pressure. This suggests that short-term holders are currently in a state of relative calm that is, …

在過去的24小時內，短期持有人通過集中式交易所（CEX）平均出售約21k BTC，該交易所低於銷售壓力的歷史平均水平。這表明，短期持有人目前處於相對平靜的狀態，即…

In the last 24 hours, an average of 21,000 BTC has been sold through centralized exchanges by holders who qualify as short-term. This does sound like a lot, and it is probably too many BTC to part with for any sane BTC bull. Yet, for this phase of the market, the offloading we have seen is a pretty normal occurrence, with the much-anticipated rally not resulting in reactionary selling from the short-term holders that we would usually expect.

在過去的24小時內，有資格成為短期資格的持有者通過集中式交流出售了平均21,000 BTC。這聽起來確實很像，對於任何理智的BTC公牛來說，BTC可能太多了。然而，對於這個市場的這個階段，我們看到的卸載是一個非常正常的事件，備受期待的集會不會導致我們通常會期望的短期持有人的反動銷售。

The sell-side pressure that we see now is a diluted version of what we had a couple of months ago, and it might even be the blush of a possible bottom. Of course, when a market is going up, we want to see the selling in the rearview mirror. And when a market is going down, we want to see the buying in the rearview mirror. Right now, we see in the rearview mirror that sellers are becoming fewer and sometimes even friendlier.

我們現在看到的賣方壓力是幾個月前的稀釋版本，甚至可能是可能的底部。當然，當市場上升時，我們希望在後視鏡中看到銷售。當市場下降時，我們希望在後視鏡中看到購買。目前，我們在後視鏡中看到賣家變得越來越少，有時甚至更友好。

As Bitcoin moves nearer to the $120K mark, the current state of tranquility may not linger. Numbers that are round and close to psychologically significant levels, like $100K and $120K, tend to attract and demand our attention. They often act as focal points for retail investors and serve as convenient landmarks for decision-making among various market participants. A tour through profit-taking at either of these two destinations would certainly qualify as a potential path to peace for profit-seekers.

隨著比特幣移動到$ 120K商標，當前的寧靜狀態可能不會持續。圓形且接近心理意義的數字，例如$ 10萬美元和12萬美元，往往會吸引和引起我們的注意。它們通常是散戶投資者的焦點，並為各個市場參與者的決策提供便利的地標。通過這兩個目的地中的任何一個通過盈利進行巡迴演出肯定會成為尋求利潤者和平的潛在途徑。

Alongside the cautious optimism in spot markets, the derivatives landscape is also noticing a reset. Open interest has recently dropped $1 billion, indicating that a large-scale unwinding of leveraged positions is happening. This reduction in leverage occurs when traders exit trades. They might exit trades to take profit, or they might exit trades to limit losses during heightened volatility.

除了在現貨市場中謹慎的樂觀態度外，衍生品景觀也注意到了重置。 Open Intery最近下跌了10億美元，這表明正在大規模放鬆槓桿頭寸。當交易者退出交易時，槓桿率的降低會發生。他們可能會退出交易以獲利，或者他們可能會退出交易以限制波動性上升期間的損失。

Open interest is declining, and so is net taker volume. When aggressive traders in derivatives markets are taking up a position (buying in this case), they put money to work in the market. When they stop putting money to work and start taking money back out of the market, we start to see these kinds of numbers come up. They’re not just bad numbers; they paint a bad picture. And the picture they’re painting right now happens to rhyme with the $BTC picture.

開放興趣正在下降，淨收入人數也在下降。當衍生品市場的積極交易者正在擔任職位（在這種情況下購買）時，他們將錢投入市場。當他們不再花錢上班並開始將錢從市場上拿出來時，我們開始看到這類數字出現。他們不僅僅是糟糕的數字；他們畫了一幅不好的畫面。他們現在正在繪畫的圖片恰好是押韻，並帶有$ btc圖片。

Although the price could dip to $106,000 without violating the overall upward trend, it would represent a not-so-healthy market rotating away from not-so-healthy market participants. A number of recent price dips have marked transitions from the not-so-healthy phase of excessive speculation to a phase with stronger market participants (“strong hands”), offering a somewhat healthier basis from which to move on to new price highs. This transition has been necessary, and I would argue, constructive.

儘管價格可能會降至106,000美元而不會違反整體上升趨勢，但它將代表一個不太健康的市場，而不是不太健康的市場參與者。最近的許多價格下跌已經明顯從過度猜測的不健康階段轉變為具有更強的市場參與者（“強者”）的階段，提供了更健康的基礎，從而向新的價格高漲。這種過渡是必要的，我會說，建設性。

A $1B drop in open interest indicates a large-scale position unwind and reduced leverage. The negative net taker volume (purple bar) reflects seller dominance and a pullback from the local $110K peak. If the bearish momentum persists, BTC could test support around $106K.

$ 1B的開放興趣表明，大規模的位置放鬆並減少了槓桿作用。負淨接收器量（紫色棒）反映了賣方的優勢和當地$ 110K峰的回調。如果看跌勢頭持續，BTC可以測試10.6萬美元的支持。

The $120K price point is looming. It represents not just another increase in the nominal price but also a potential major psychological hurdle that could affect retail and institutional sentiment. If Bitcoin gets close to this number, it might spark a fresh wave of decision-making around it: are we gonna lock in profits, or are we gonna use this momentum to push through the next big threshold?

$ 120K的價格點迫在眉睫。它不僅代表了名義價格的另一種提高，而且代表了可能影響零售和機構情緒的潛在重大心理障礙。如果比特幣接近這個數字，它可能會引發圍繞它的新決策浪潮：我們要鎖定利潤，還是我們要利用這一勢頭來推動下一個大門檻？

If the short-term holder group stays patient, as they are now, and if leverage stays low, then Bitcoin has a better shot at breaking the $120K mark with less pushback. Conversely, if the market starts to hit the “sell” button as Bitcoin nears $120K, then we might see it take a little dip before attempting another

如果短期持有人組像現在一樣保持患者，並且如果槓桿率保持較低，那麼比特幣可以更好地打破$ 120K的標記，而較少的推動力。相反，如果市場開始按比特幣接近$ 120k的“賣出”按鈕，那麼我們可能會看到它在嘗試另一個之前需要一點蘸醬