比特币（BTC）一直处于明确定义的看涨结构中

即使在过去几周中有很多价格行动，短期持有人似乎表现出了很多克制。

Bitcoin (BTC) has been persisting in a well-defined bullish structure, but recent activity in spot and derivatives markets suggests a temporary cooling-off phase.

比特币（BTC）一直在明确的看涨结构中持续存在，但是最近的活动和衍生品市场的活动表明暂时的冷却阶段。

Even though there’s been plenty of price action over the past several weeks, short-term holders seem to be showing quite a bit of restraint. Broader market data implies that we’re taking a strategic pause rather than experiencing a sentiment shift.

即使在过去几周中有很多价格行动，短期持有人似乎表现出了很多克制。更广泛的市场数据意味着我们正在进行战略性停顿，而不是经历情感转变。

Although Bitcoin hit the $110K recently, several important indicators are now signaling a possible short-term pullback — what could be a perfectly healthy pause in an otherwise strong uptrend. At this point, it’s the $120K our eyes are most glued to, as this potential psychological milestone could trigger all kinds of renewed volatility, not to mention some profit-taking behavior.

尽管比特币最近达到了11万美元，但现在有几个重要的指标表明可能的短期回调可能是在原本强大的上升趋势中完全健康的停顿。在这一点上，这是我们的眼睛最多的12万美元，因为这种潜在的心理里程碑可能会触发各种新的波动性，更不用说某些利润的行为了。

Over the past 24 hours, Short-Term Holders have been selling an average of around 21K BTC via centralized exchanges (CEX), which is below the historical average level of selling pressure. This suggests that short-term holders are currently in a state of relative calm that is, …

在过去的24小时内，短期持有人通过集中式交易所（CEX）平均出售约21k BTC，该交易所低于销售压力的历史平均水平。这表明，短期持有人目前处于相对平静的状态，即…

In the last 24 hours, an average of 21,000 BTC has been sold through centralized exchanges by holders who qualify as short-term. This does sound like a lot, and it is probably too many BTC to part with for any sane BTC bull. Yet, for this phase of the market, the offloading we have seen is a pretty normal occurrence, with the much-anticipated rally not resulting in reactionary selling from the short-term holders that we would usually expect.

在过去的24小时内，有资格成为短期资格的持有者通过集中式交流出售了平均21,000 BTC。这听起来确实很像，对于任何理智的BTC公牛来说，BTC可能太多了。然而，对于这个市场的这个阶段，我们看到的卸载是一个非常正常的事件，备受期待的集会不会导致我们通常会期望的短期持有人的反动销售。

The sell-side pressure that we see now is a diluted version of what we had a couple of months ago, and it might even be the blush of a possible bottom. Of course, when a market is going up, we want to see the selling in the rearview mirror. And when a market is going down, we want to see the buying in the rearview mirror. Right now, we see in the rearview mirror that sellers are becoming fewer and sometimes even friendlier.

我们现在看到的卖方压力是几个月前的稀释版本，甚至可能是可能的底部。当然，当市场上升时，我们希望在后视镜中看到销售。当市场下降时，我们希望在后视镜中看到购买。目前，我们在后视镜中看到卖家变得越来越少，有时甚至更友好。

As Bitcoin moves nearer to the $120K mark, the current state of tranquility may not linger. Numbers that are round and close to psychologically significant levels, like $100K and $120K, tend to attract and demand our attention. They often act as focal points for retail investors and serve as convenient landmarks for decision-making among various market participants. A tour through profit-taking at either of these two destinations would certainly qualify as a potential path to peace for profit-seekers.

随着比特币移动到$ 120K商标，当前的宁静状态可能不会持续。圆形且接近心理意义的数字，例如$ 10万美元和12万美元，往往会吸引和引起我们的注意。它们通常是散户投资者的焦点，并为各个市场参与者的决策提供便利的地标。通过这两个目的地中的任何一个通过盈利进行巡回演出肯定会成为寻求利润者和平的潜在途径。

Alongside the cautious optimism in spot markets, the derivatives landscape is also noticing a reset. Open interest has recently dropped $1 billion, indicating that a large-scale unwinding of leveraged positions is happening. This reduction in leverage occurs when traders exit trades. They might exit trades to take profit, or they might exit trades to limit losses during heightened volatility.

除了在现货市场中谨慎的乐观态度外，衍生品景观也注意到了重置。 Open Intery最近下跌了10亿美元，这表明正在大规模放松杠杆头寸。当交易者退出交易时，杠杆率的降低会发生。他们可能会退出交易以获利，或者他们可能会退出交易以限制波动性上升期间的损失。

Open interest is declining, and so is net taker volume. When aggressive traders in derivatives markets are taking up a position (buying in this case), they put money to work in the market. When they stop putting money to work and start taking money back out of the market, we start to see these kinds of numbers come up. They’re not just bad numbers; they paint a bad picture. And the picture they’re painting right now happens to rhyme with the $BTC picture.

开放兴趣正在下降，净收入人数也在下降。当衍生品市场的积极交易者正在担任职位（在这种情况下购买）时，他们将钱投入市场。当他们不再花钱上班并开始将钱从市场上拿出来时，我们开始看到这类数字出现。他们不仅仅是糟糕的数字；他们画了一幅不好的画面。他们现在正在绘画的图片恰好是押韵，并带有$ btc图片。

Although the price could dip to $106,000 without violating the overall upward trend, it would represent a not-so-healthy market rotating away from not-so-healthy market participants. A number of recent price dips have marked transitions from the not-so-healthy phase of excessive speculation to a phase with stronger market participants (“strong hands”), offering a somewhat healthier basis from which to move on to new price highs. This transition has been necessary, and I would argue, constructive.

尽管价格可能会降至106,000美元而不会违反整体上升趋势，但它将代表一个不太健康的市场，而不是不太健康的市场参与者。最近的许多价格下跌已经明显从过度猜测的不健康阶段转变为具有更强的市场参与者（“强者”）的阶段，提供了更健康的基础，从而向新的价格高涨。这种过渡是必要的，我会说，建设性。

A $1B drop in open interest indicates a large-scale position unwind and reduced leverage. The negative net taker volume (purple bar) reflects seller dominance and a pullback from the local $110K peak. If the bearish momentum persists, BTC could test support around $106K.

$ 1B的开放兴趣表明，大规模的位置放松并减少了杠杆作用。负净接收器量（紫色棒）反映了卖方的优势和当地$ 110K峰的回调。如果看跌势头持续，BTC可以测试10.6万美元的支持。

The $120K price point is looming. It represents not just another increase in the nominal price but also a potential major psychological hurdle that could affect retail and institutional sentiment. If Bitcoin gets close to this number, it might spark a fresh wave of decision-making around it: are we gonna lock in profits, or are we gonna use this momentum to push through the next big threshold?

$ 120K的价格点迫在眉睫。它不仅代表了名义价格的另一种提高，而且代表了可能影响零售和机构情绪的潜在重大心理障碍。如果比特币接近这个数字，它可能会引发围绕它的新决策浪潮：我们要锁定利润，还是我们要利用这一势头来推动下一个大门槛？

If the short-term holder group stays patient, as they are now, and if leverage stays low, then Bitcoin has a better shot at breaking the $120K mark with less pushback. Conversely, if the market starts to hit the “sell” button as Bitcoin nears $120K, then we might see it take a little dip before attempting another

如果短期持有人组像现在一样保持患者，并且如果杠杆率保持较低，那么比特币可以更好地打破$ 120K的标记，而较少的推动力。相反，如果市场开始按比特币接近$ 120k的“卖出”按钮，那么我们可能会看到它在尝试另一个之前需要一点蘸酱