比特幣（BTC）在過去12個小時內增長了3.38％，試圖從周五的殘酷更正中恢復

在過去的12個小時中，比特幣（BTC）上漲了3.38％，試圖從周五的殘酷更正中恢復。技術和鏈上的數據表明，為什麼BTC價格重新訪問了111,959.5美元的歷史最高點或向上推高120,000美元的價格。

Bitcoin (BTC) is up 3.38% in the past 12 hours, attempting to recover from Friday’s brutal correction. Technical and on-chain data show why BTC price revisiting of the all-time high of $111,959.5 or a push higher toward $120,000 is unlikely.

在過去的12個小時中，比特幣（BTC）上漲了3.38％，試圖從周五的殘酷更正中恢復。技術和鏈上的數據表明，為什麼BTC價格重新訪問了111,959.5美元的歷史最高點或向上推高120,000美元的價格。

Why BTC Price Climbing To $120,000 Is Unlikely

為什麼BTC價格攀升至$ 120,000不太可能

In the long run, Bitcoin (BTC) setting up an ATH beyond $120,000 is highly likely as the higher timeframe outlook is largely bullish. On a lower timeframe, the BTC price remains bearish due to three critical signals:

從長遠來看，比特幣（BTC）建立超過120,000美元以上的ATH很可能是可能的，因為較高的時間範圍前景在很大程度上是看好的。在較低的時間範圍內，由於三個關鍵信號，BTC價格仍然看跌：

These key developments suggest that a short-term pause or a pullback is highly likely here for BTC price.

這些關鍵的發展表明，在BTC價格上，很可能在短期停頓或回調很可能。

Bitcoin’s Weekly Chart Flashes Bearish Swing Failure Pattern

比特幣的每週圖表閃光燈看跌搖擺失敗模式

The weekly candlestick close shows Bitcoin (BTC) price breached the previous ATH of $110K, but failed to close above it. This technical formation is termed a swing failure pattern, where the asset fails to show strength above closing above a key level.

每週的燭台關閉表明比特幣（BTC）價格違反了以前的11萬美元的ATH，但未能在其上方關閉。這種技術形成稱為揮桿故障模式，資產未能顯示出高於關鍵水平以上的強度。

Additionally, the RSI shows a lower high compared to Bitcoin’s higher high, displaying a classic bearish divergence pattern. The non-conformity between price and the momentum indicator shows the lack of bullish momentum, which often leads to a correction in the underlying asset.

此外，與比特幣高高相比，RSI顯示出較低的高度，顯示出經典的看跌差異模式。價格和動量指標之間的不合格表明缺乏看漲的動力，這通常會導致基礎資產的糾正。

In that regard, the 43% rally from $76,555 to $110,000 is a key higher timeframe price swing that investors should note. If the price is overextended as the indicators suggest, then a correction is due. When most rallies or uptrends face exhaustion, a correction to the fair value or discount mode is noted. In this case, the midpoint of the aforementioned 43% rally at $93,024 is the fair value. A push below this level would be considered discount mode and is often where smart money or whales accumulate.

在這方面，投資者應注意的是，43％的集會從76,555美元到$ 110,000是一個關鍵的更高時間範圍。如果價格如指標所建議的過度擴張，則應進行更正。當大多數集會或上升趨勢面臨疲憊時，會注意到公允價值或折扣模式的更正。在這種情況下，上述43％集會的中點為93,024美元是公允價值。低於此級別的推動將被視為折扣模式，通常是智能金錢或鯨魚積累的地方。

A previous CoinGape article noted four reasons why Bitcoin price may crash to $100K, which is inline with the above outlook. The said article notes an implied volatility-based sell signal as one of the reasons for a retracement.

以前的Coingape文章指出了比特幣價格可能會崩潰至$ 10萬美元的四個原因，這與上述外觀有關。上述文章指出，隱含的基於波動率的賣出信號是回撤的原因之一。

Whales Offload BTC Holdings

鯨魚卸載BTC持有

Santiment’s blockchain data shows whales holding between 100K to 1M BTC are selling. These smart investors’ holdings spiked from 647.73K to 679.63K between February and April 2025. They accumulated when Bitcoin price consolidated between $75K and $88K. Now, these investors are offloading, adding headwinds to price, which is already under a key resistance level.

Santiment的區塊鏈數據表明，在BTC售出100萬至1M之間的鯨魚正在出售。這些聰明的投資者的持股量從2月至2025年4月之間從647.73k到679.63K飆升至679.63K。當比特幣價格合併在75,000美元至8.8萬美元之間時，它們累積了。現在，這些投資者正在卸載，增加了價格的逆風，這已經處於關鍵阻力水平。

Profit-Taking Activity Accelerates As BTC Consolidates Below Previous ATH

BTC鞏固以下ATH以下的盈利活動會加速

Typically, when Bitcoin price approaches its previous ATH or sets up a new one in close vicinity, there’s a lot of profit-taking activity. Investors who bought at the previous top or before the rally are attempting to cash in some gains. As a result, BTC price continues to consolidate around previous highs.

通常，當比特幣價格接近以前的ATH或在附近建立新的ATH時，就會有很多利潤活動。在上一層或集會之前購買的投資者正在嘗試以某些收益兌現。結果，BTC價格繼續鞏固以前的高點。

The Network Realized Profit/Loss (NPL) Indicator spiked from 2.3B to 9.18B as BTC price rose from $82K to $111K. History shows that large upticks in NPL often coincide with local tops as investors sell to realize gains.

該網絡實現了從2.3b到9.18b的損益/損失（NPL）指標，BTC價格從82K美元上漲至11.1萬美元。歷史表明，隨著投資者出售以實現收益，NPL的大型上升通常與當地上衣相吻合。

To conclude, the weekly chart shows weakness, which is clearly echoed by whales’ behavior and the NPL indicator spike. As more investors book profits, the chances of a potential correction to key support levels are highly likely. Unless new capital flows in, the chances of a BTC price rally to $120,000 or higher are not possible.

總而言之，每週圖表顯示出弱點，這顯然是鯨魚的行為和NPL指標尖峰的回應。隨著越來越多的投資者預訂利潤，很可能有可能對關鍵支持水平進行糾正的機會。除非新資本流入，否則BTC價格集會的機會不可能達到120,000美元或更高。

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

常見問題（常見問題解答）